Hi, can someone explain the resolution on the Paris June 4 high temp market?
The rules say resolution source = Wunderground LFPB. That page now shows Actual High = 20°C for June 4.
But the market resolved to 22°C, with 21°C and 20°C marked as losing (despite $55k and $23k volume on them).
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-4-2026
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
How does this match the written rules?
Hi, can someone explain the resolution on the Paris June 4 high temp market?
The rules say resolution source = Wunderground LFPB. That page now shows Actual High = 20°C for June 4.
But the market resolved to 22°C, with 21°C and 20°C marked as losing (despite $55k and $23k volume on them).
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-4-2026
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
How does this match the written rules?
I recommend asking in https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1478933105262858321
I recommend asking in https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1478933105262858321
Hi, can someone explain the resolution on the Paris June 4 high temp market?
The rules say resolution source = Wunderground LFPB. That page now shows Actual High = 20°C for June 4.
But the market resolved to 22°C, with 21°C and 20°C marked as losing (despite $55k and $23k volume on them).
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-4-2026
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
How does this match the written rules?
Hi, can someone explain the resolution on the Paris June 4 high temp market?
The rules say resolution source = Wunderground LFPB. That page now shows Actual High = 20°C for June 4.
But the market resolved to 22°C, with 21°C and 20°C marked as losing (despite $55k and $23k volume on them).
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-4-2026
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB
How does this match the written rules?
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Okay, but nobody's responding.
Okay, but nobody's responding.
I see 22C on the history tab.
I see 22C on the history tab.
Thanks @Modali, but that's the hourly chart showing an instantaneous 22°C spike at 2:30 PM.
The Almanac section on the SAME page now shows:
- Actual High: 20°C
- Average: 22°C (this is the 30-year climatology, not the observation)
The Almanac is Wunderground's QC-validated daily max. The hourly chart can include unfiltered instantaneous readings.
Which one is the resolution source? If it's the hourly spike, the rules should say so explicitly. As written they just point to the LFPB history page without specifying which section.
Also the market resolved at 22:38 UTC on June 4 - before Wunderground had finalized the Actual. That timing means the resolution couldn't have used the Almanac (which only finalized overnight).
Thanks @Modali, but that's the hourly chart showing an instantaneous 22°C spike at 2:30 PM.
The Almanac section on the SAME page now shows:
- Actual High: 20°C
- Average: 22°C (this is the 30-year climatology, not the observation)
The Almanac is Wunderground's QC-validated daily max. The hourly chart can include unfiltered instantaneous readings.
Which one is the resolution source? If it's the hourly spike, the rules should say so explicitly. As written they just point to the LFPB history page without specifying which section.
Also the market resolved at 22:38 UTC on June 4 - before Wunderground had finalized the Actual. That timing means the resolution couldn't have used the Almanac (which only finalized overnight).
Ye but look the summary says high 22 so 22 is the answer
Ye but look the summary says high 22 so 22 is the answer
Rules basically says history tab. Not today page.
Rules basically says history tab. Not today page.
Just use the link in the rules
Just use the link in the rules
Can you send me the link for this?
Can you send me the link for this?
This is not the same page you’ve provided the link
This is not the same page you’ve provided the link
When I click the link you provided it just lands me to chart, not almanac.
When I click the link you provided it just lands me to chart, not almanac.
Yes the Summary says 22, but the Almanac on the same page says Actual 20.
So Wunderground itself shows two different Actual values for June 4 on the same URL. The rules just point to the page without specifying which section is binding.
If Summary is the source, then "Almanac" is misleading and the rules should explicitly say to use the Summary section. If Almanac is the source, the resolution is wrong.
This is a genuine ambiguity in the rules. Multiple traders made decisions based on the Almanac reading.
Yes the Summary says 22, but the Almanac on the same page says Actual 20.
So Wunderground itself shows two different Actual values for June 4 on the same URL. The rules just point to the page without specifying which section is binding.
If Summary is the source, then "Almanac" is misleading and the rules should explicitly say to use the Summary section. If Almanac is the source, the resolution is wrong.
This is a genuine ambiguity in the rules. Multiple traders made decisions based on the Almanac reading.
Almanac is not on the same page. We’re not using that page.
Almanac is not on the same page. We’re not using that page.
Almanac is on today page
Almanac is on today page
If you click some other sections, that’s another page.
If you click some other sections, that’s another page.
Here you can see it’s different links and first one is in the rules.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/fr/bonneuil-en-france
Here you can see it’s different links and first one is in the rules.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/fr/bonneuil-en-france
Got it, thanks for the clarification. I was checking the Today page Almanac yesterday evening, not the History page Summary. My mistake on the source.
Resolution makes sense given the Summary shows Actual 22 on the page in the rules. Sorry for the noise.
Got it, thanks for the clarification. I was checking the Today page Almanac yesterday evening, not the History page Summary. My mistake on the source.
Resolution makes sense given the Summary shows Actual 22 on the page in the rules. Sorry for the noise.
You’re right about that. Wunderground is complicated a little bit. But we get used to it.
You’re right about that. Wunderground is complicated a little bit. But we get used to it.