秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

Todd Blanche 永久 AG 提名市场“Before Jun 5th”结算争议

2026-06-05 · Kalshi · 36 条相关讨论

SJ 2026-06-05 13:54:28

I was thinking about this, not sure what the outcome should be

I was thinking about this, not sure what the outcome should be

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:54:48

After looking at it for the past day I'm pretty sure it should be N.

After looking at it for the past day I'm pretty sure it should be N.

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:55:23

The idea was that Trump would formally announce him today

The idea was that Trump would formally announce him today

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:55:35

That was my reasoning for why it hadn't resolved yet

That was my reasoning for why it hadn't resolved yet

SJ 2026-06-05 13:55:55

It's arguably not an "official announcement" (very subjective), though he did announce his intention to

It's arguably not an "official announcement" (very subjective), though he did announce his intention to

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:56:07

<:ICANT:1306491472417263636>

<:ICANT:1306491472417263636>

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:56:53

This is basically equivalent to Trump telling Todd he's going to nominate him, and making him feel good by including all his friends at the white house

This is basically equivalent to Trump telling Todd he's going to nominate him, and making him feel good by including all his friends at the white house

Azuul 2026-06-05 13:56:59

an official announcement is given to the public

an official announcement is given to the public

SJ 2026-06-05 13:57:53

Since it says "official announcement", I lean no ig.

Since it says "official announcement", I lean no ig.

SJ 2026-06-05 13:58:01

If it said "announces" I would count it tbh

If it said "announces" I would count it tbh

jack 2026-06-05 13:59:52

based

based

SJ 2026-06-05 13:59:56

But it definitely wasn't leaked or anything

But it definitely wasn't leaked or anything

jack 2026-06-05 14:00:00

its def N imo

its def N imo

SJ 2026-06-05 14:00:01

And it was qualifying statement

And it was qualifying statement

SJ 2026-06-05 14:00:05

Just about setting

Just about setting

Azuul 2026-06-05 14:05:41

edited: The "Before Jun 5th" strike was added amidst the media leaks yesterday surrounding Trump's potential announcement. If this market was left open with the knowledge that the criterion had already been met by the dinner "announcement", it would be quite negligent to not resolve all brackets Yes already. It was expected, that when Trump said he would begin the formal process "tomorrow", that we would receive the official nomination along with it on Thursday. However, it didn't happen, and so the strike went dead. Trump may have changed his mind, or the process of his official announcement simply hasn't started yet. I'm just saying, it's going to look really bad for Kalshi if this market goes YES when Trump does the official Truth Social nomination next week for Blanche, or even worse, for someone else, or at a much later time.

edited: The "Before Jun 5th" strike was added amidst the media leaks yesterday surrounding Trump's potential announcement. If this market was left open with the knowledge that the criterion had already been met by the dinner "announcement", it would be quite negligent to not resolve all brackets Yes already. It was expected, that when Trump said he would begin the formal process "tomorrow", that we would receive the official nomination along with it on Thursday. However, it didn't happen, and so the strike went dead. Trump may have changed his mind, or the process of his official announcement simply hasn't started yet. I'm just saying, it's going to look really bad for Kalshi if this market goes YES when Trump does the official Truth Social nomination next week for Blanche, or even worse, for someone else, or at a much later time.

Azuul 2026-06-05 14:06:40

Not really

Not really

Azuul 2026-06-05 14:06:56

The guy isnt even named in the 5 second clip

The guy isnt even named in the 5 second clip

Azuul 2026-06-05 14:07:06

You have to use inference to even figure out who he's talking about

You have to use inference to even figure out who he's talking about

SJ 2026-06-05 14:07:46

I think if he said that live it would definitely count -- he announced his intention for formally nominate him as permanent AG

I think if he said that live it would definitely count -- he announced his intention for formally nominate him as permanent AG