Are we about to witness another UMA fuckover with the US Iran permanent peace deal?
Are we about to witness another UMA fuckover with the US Iran permanent peace deal?
2026-06-15 · Polymarket · 843 条相关讨论
Are we about to witness another UMA fuckover with the US Iran permanent peace deal?
Are we about to witness another UMA fuckover with the US Iran permanent peace deal?
https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by
https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by
There are conflicting reports on whether it is an extension of the cease fire or a permanent end to the conflict. How come there is already a resolution proposed? We have to wait for official government release from US or Iran, Pakistan isn’t an involved party in the deal.
There are conflicting reports on whether it is an extension of the cease fire or a permanent end to the conflict. How come there is already a resolution proposed? We have to wait for official government release from US or Iran, Pakistan isn’t an involved party in the deal.
I think it's possible UMA fucks it over per rules
I think it's possible UMA fucks it over per rules
A lot of whales holding no
A lot of whales holding no
I'm leaning on no personally
I'm leaning on no personally
I can smell a lot of uma fuckery in this one
I can smell a lot of uma fuckery in this one
I opened a small position on no
I opened a small position on no
This gives me Trump says "Iran" and MTSR sells vibes
This gives me Trump says "Iran" and MTSR sells vibes
do not bet on anything that depends on uma
do not bet on anything that depends on uma
if someone with size wants they'll take your money and there's nothing you can do
if someone with size wants they'll take your money and there's nothing you can do
is anyone disputing the iran market for june 15th
is anyone disputing the iran market for june 15th
i feel like june 15th is a no
i feel like june 15th is a no
this is just a deal to make a deal no?
this is just a deal to make a deal no?
There should be definitely a clarification from Polymarket on this one. I don't like see another Ukraine Russia mienral deal again: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129
There should be definitely a clarification from Polymarket on this one. I don't like see another Ukraine Russia mienral deal again: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129
no need for clarification ... uma will decide based on the voting.. clarification from poly just ruins their own image for nothing
no need for clarification ... uma will decide based on the voting.. clarification from poly just ruins their own image for nothing
Rules: > A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which **explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease**, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Announcement of the agreement by Pakistan: > Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides **have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Announcement of the agreement by Iran: > Based on the agreements reached, **the war** and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, **will end immediately and permanently as of tonight**, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely. AFP: > The United States and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding and an “immediate and permanent” end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, signalling the apparent end to more than three months of war in the Middle East. NBC: > United States and Iran reach agreement to end war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz Times of Israel: > US, Iran reach deal to end war BBC: > US and Iran announce deal to end military operations CNBC: > The U.S. and Iran agreed on a peace deal to bring immediate and permanent termination to the conflict. CBS (pre-announcement): > the terms in the draft memorandum of understanding include: > > Iran and the U.S., together with their allies, declaring that all military operations on every front, including Lebanon, end immediately and permanently. They also commit not to start any war against each other and to refrain from threatening or using force.
Rules: > A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which **explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease**, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Announcement of the agreement by Pakistan: > Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides **have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Announcement of the agreement by Iran: > Based on the agreements reached, **the war** and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, **will end immediately and permanently as of tonight**, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely. AFP: > The United States and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding and an “immediate and permanent” end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, signalling the apparent end to more than three months of war in the Middle East. NBC: > United States and Iran reach agreement to end war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz Times of Israel: > US, Iran reach deal to end war BBC: > US and Iran announce deal to end military operations CNBC: > The U.S. and Iran agreed on a peace deal to bring immediate and permanent termination to the conflict. CBS (pre-announcement): > the terms in the draft memorandum of understanding include: > > Iran and the U.S., together with their allies, declaring that all military operations on every front, including Lebanon, end immediately and permanently. They also commit not to start any war against each other and to refrain from threatening or using force.
Those quotes show why Yes has an argument, but they do not settle the market. The rules do not say “resolve Yes if reports use the words permanent peace deal.” They require either signed/formally adopted written agreement, or clear public confirmation from both the US and Iran that a qualifying permanent agreement was definitively established. Pakistan’s statement cannot substitute for US confirmation. Iran’s statement helps, but if the US position and credible reporting still describe this as an MOU/framework with signing scheduled later and follow-on negotiations pending, then it is not a definitive establishment of a permanent peace deal by the deadline. The key distinction is: permanent wording inside a draft/framework is not the same as a definitively established permanent peace deal.
Those quotes show why Yes has an argument, but they do not settle the market. The rules do not say “resolve Yes if reports use the words permanent peace deal.” They require either signed/formally adopted written agreement, or clear public confirmation from both the US and Iran that a qualifying permanent agreement was definitively established. Pakistan’s statement cannot substitute for US confirmation. Iran’s statement helps, but if the US position and credible reporting still describe this as an MOU/framework with signing scheduled later and follow-on negotiations pending, then it is not a definitive establishment of a permanent peace deal by the deadline. The key distinction is: permanent wording inside a draft/framework is not the same as a definitively established permanent peace deal.
Yes holders keep quoting Pakistan, Iran, and media headlines, but the rules require clear confirmation from both the US and Iran. Where is the US government statement saying this is a permanent peace deal definitively established by June 15? Not “an agreement was reached,” not “a framework,” not “signing Friday,” not “60 days of talks.” A permanent peace deal. If that proof does not exist, this should resolve No. The market requires conclusive evidence, not inference from headlines.
Yes holders keep quoting Pakistan, Iran, and media headlines, but the rules require clear confirmation from both the US and Iran. Where is the US government statement saying this is a permanent peace deal definitively established by June 15? Not “an agreement was reached,” not “a framework,” not “signing Friday,” not “60 days of talks.” A permanent peace deal. If that proof does not exist, this should resolve No. The market requires conclusive evidence, not inference from headlines.
do you understand what polymarket rules state? It needs a clear and definitive statement saying both agreed to end military operations and public confirmation.. hence it is satisfied . The only thing matters to poly is whether it was satisfied in the time frame june 15 . They dont care if they strike today or in future nothing matters.. rules say : A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
do you understand what polymarket rules state? It needs a clear and definitive statement saying both agreed to end military operations and public confirmation.. hence it is satisfied . The only thing matters to poly is whether it was satisfied in the time frame june 15 . They dont care if they strike today or in future nothing matters.. rules say : A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.