Why does my potential prize keeps decreasing for my bets even though I didn't sell my position?
Why does my potential prize keeps decreasing for my bets even though I didn't sell my position?
2026-06-16 · 42 · 7 条相关讨论
Why does my potential prize keeps decreasing for my bets even though I didn't sell my position?
Why does my potential prize keeps decreasing for my bets even though I didn't sell my position?
Hello! Your potential prize keeps decreasing even though you didn’t sell because new people are buying the same outcome as you, minting more Outcome Tokens and increasing its total supply. At resolution, the entire pool is shared only among holders of the winning outcome, so your percentage share becomes smaller as dilution effect. This is normal behavior caused by the Power Curve and parimutuel system, more money flowing into your side reduces individual payouts at settlement, even if the total pool grows as well as buy/sell activities from whatever OTs can affect your payouts
Hello! Your potential prize keeps decreasing even though you didn’t sell because new people are buying the same outcome as you, minting more Outcome Tokens and increasing its total supply. At resolution, the entire pool is shared only among holders of the winning outcome, so your percentage share becomes smaller as dilution effect. This is normal behavior caused by the Power Curve and parimutuel system, more money flowing into your side reduces individual payouts at settlement, even if the total pool grows as well as buy/sell activities from whatever OTs can affect your payouts
For more context please check: https://docs.42.space/getting-started/protocol-mechanics-101/convex-payout-dynamics
For more context please check: https://docs.42.space/getting-started/protocol-mechanics-101/convex-payout-dynamics
No, actually for the pool I bought lately more people sold than bought as its size decreased
No, actually for the pool I bought lately more people sold than bought as its size decreased
And I already lost 60% of my value in 2 months
And I already lost 60% of my value in 2 months
How is this normal?
How is this normal?
Yes, this is also normal on 42. When more people sell than buy in your outcome, they withdraw collateral from the pool and the Power Curve price of that token drops, causing your current redeem value to fall sharply even if you hold. Because the total collateral in the market also decreases, your potential payout at resolution becomes smaller too. Unlike traditional prediction markets with fixed odds, 42 is a live dynamic market where price moves constantly with supply and demand so holding through heavy selling pressure can lead to big losses on current value, which is exactly what happened in your case over the past 2 months
Yes, this is also normal on 42. When more people sell than buy in your outcome, they withdraw collateral from the pool and the Power Curve price of that token drops, causing your current redeem value to fall sharply even if you hold. Because the total collateral in the market also decreases, your potential payout at resolution becomes smaller too. Unlike traditional prediction markets with fixed odds, 42 is a live dynamic market where price moves constantly with supply and demand so holding through heavy selling pressure can lead to big losses on current value, which is exactly what happened in your case over the past 2 months