秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

选举市场应默认采用开放式strike提升零售友好度

2026-06-29 · Polymarket · 6 条相关讨论

@bernardbulletin 2026-06-28 22:12:59

<@1212792946341183578> <@941405798096076880> Just to give some feedback: For secondary election markets like MOV % and candidate Vote %, I think the default should be open-ended strikes instead of bounded strikes. Open-ended strikes are more intuitive and make it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is just from looking at the orderbook. I also suspect open-ended strikes are more attractive to retail traders, who likely get intimidated thinking about bounded strikes. "I think my candidate will win by 10% or more" is an easier bet to place than "I think my candidate will win by somewhere between 9 and 12 exactly." I can see modelsharps preferring bounded ranges because it theoretically allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse.

<@1212792946341183578> <@941405798096076880> Just to give some feedback: For secondary election markets like MOV % and candidate Vote %, I think the default should be open-ended strikes instead of bounded strikes. Open-ended strikes are more intuitive and make it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is just from looking at the orderbook. I also suspect open-ended strikes are more attractive to retail traders, who likely get intimidated thinking about bounded strikes. "I think my candidate will win by 10% or more" is an easier bet to place than "I think my candidate will win by somewhere between 9 and 12 exactly." I can see modelsharps preferring bounded ranges because it theoretically allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse.

adnis 2026-06-28 22:14:20

Seconded

Seconded

@bernardbulletin 2026-06-28 22:50:13

Can we try this out for a CO-01 D Primary MOV market? And a CO-Sen D primary market.

Can we try this out for a CO-01 D Primary MOV market? And a CO-Sen D primary market.

Flip 2026-06-29 01:17:27

Having talked to a lot of elections ppl, seems to make the most sense going forward . Much more intuitive and retail friendly and will produce higher vol

Having talked to a lot of elections ppl, seems to make the most sense going forward . Much more intuitive and retail friendly and will produce higher vol

trumanshowlvr 2026-06-29 02:54:27

Yeah this definitely seems like the best option to me

Yeah this definitely seems like the best option to me