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密歇根州长初选Sayed与Stevens选情及市场定价争议

2026-07-06 · Kalshi · 63 条相关讨论

mark zuckerberg 2026-07-06 01:40:15

she’s a bum running in a throw the bums out election

she’s a bum running in a throw the bums out election

mark zuckerberg 2026-07-06 01:40:27

literally head bum when hillary was running

literally head bum when hillary was running

mark zuckerberg 2026-07-06 02:35:24

i would love to sell ppl Stevens at 30

i would love to sell ppl Stevens at 30

carl 2026-07-06 06:59:06

he got to high 50s 😅🤣

he got to high 50s 😅🤣

carl 2026-07-06 06:59:33

someone just kept slamming market orders

someone just kept slamming market orders

polar 2026-07-06 07:02:18

now he’s back at 80

now he’s back at 80

polar 2026-07-06 07:02:27

it’s like mcmorrow never even dropped out

it’s like mcmorrow never even dropped out

GlacierFox 2026-07-06 07:03:19

is the thesis that mcmorrow voters move to haley

is the thesis that mcmorrow voters move to haley

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-06 07:16:18

abdul is not a 6-1 favorite right now

abdul is not a 6-1 favorite right now

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:17:58

I mean I thought the market would react more to the news

I mean I thought the market would react more to the news

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:18:05

I think Abdul is a 70% favorite not 80% imo

I think Abdul is a 70% favorite not 80% imo

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:19:13

The issue is have you ever heard Stevens talk

The issue is have you ever heard Stevens talk

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:19:16

She has anti charisma

She has anti charisma

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:19:22

And Sayed is dripping with it

And Sayed is dripping with it

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:19:50

So despite Stevens having some massive institutional support she’s also quite weak, so gotta balance that

So despite Stevens having some massive institutional support she’s also quite weak, so gotta balance that

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:19:51

There is still weeks to go left, I agree Sayed is a massive favorite but idt he is a bond

There is still weeks to go left, I agree Sayed is a massive favorite but idt he is a bond

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:20:14

He was pre dropout imo

He was pre dropout imo

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:20:36

Yeah I’d buy him at 65-70 I think. There is a debate and it might be this week. This will get a lot of attention

Yeah I’d buy him at 65-70 I think. There is a debate and it might be this week. This will get a lot of attention

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:21:06

I expect Sayed to crush her in such a heads up debate format but if for some reason he doesn’t than I may change my view

I expect Sayed to crush her in such a heads up debate format but if for some reason he doesn’t than I may change my view

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:21:42

I could see her backing out

I could see her backing out

polar 2026-07-06 07:21:59

lotta talking not a lotta MOGGING

lotta talking not a lotta MOGGING

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:22:17

Sayed got 30% in 2018 vs Whitner, a strong establishment candidate, and Vs Shri who took some low income votes off him. And things are way more favorable now

Sayed got 30% in 2018 vs Whitner, a strong establishment candidate, and Vs Shri who took some low income votes off him. And things are way more favorable now

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:22:52

Shri is also losing his race

Shri is also losing his race

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:22:59

I haven’t looked that much into it but he seems cooked

I haven’t looked that much into it but he seems cooked

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:23:19

I’m pretty sure Shri was also a New Democrat in 2018, he was a Rubio guy in 2016.

I’m pretty sure Shri was also a New Democrat in 2018, he was a Rubio guy in 2016.

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:24:26

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fpPMQPxpeHg&ra=m

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fpPMQPxpeHg&ra=m

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:24:27

Yeah he’s up against a Bernie endorsed guy right?

Yeah he’s up against a Bernie endorsed guy right?

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:24:42

The thing is the progressive moment wasn’t as powerful in 2018

The thing is the progressive moment wasn’t as powerful in 2018

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:24:56

I think progressives got fired up after Bernie lost for the second time

I think progressives got fired up after Bernie lost for the second time

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:25:03

Since they realized they had to branch out more

Since they realized they had to branch out more

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-06 07:25:14

stevens has huge support among black voters

stevens has huge support among black voters

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-06 07:25:54

she has cash, and she plays decently with most flannel and carhartt wearing midwestern dems

she has cash, and she plays decently with most flannel and carhartt wearing midwestern dems

polar 2026-07-06 07:26:35

seems odd that she has huge support among black voters

seems odd that she has huge support among black voters

polar 2026-07-06 07:26:42

blacks for israel

blacks for israel

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:26:52

I think Cuomo won black voters

I think Cuomo won black voters

polar 2026-07-06 07:27:18

in the primary, he kinda did but not by a lot

in the primary, he kinda did but not by a lot

polar 2026-07-06 07:27:22

obviously in the general he didn’t

obviously in the general he didn’t

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:27:52

Cause Sliwa won them

Cause Sliwa won them

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:29:10

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/2073863339080339654?s=46

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/2073863339080339654?s=46

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:29:16

Why does Wedgwood have a C

Why does Wedgwood have a C

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:29:30

What did they even get remotely correct

What did they even get remotely correct

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:30:28

I know the user who runs Wedgewood is a progressive so if even they have hong only winning by 3 in the general that’s kind of awful lol

I know the user who runs Wedgewood is a progressive so if even they have hong only winning by 3 in the general that’s kind of awful lol

polar 2026-07-06 07:30:30

louisiana

louisiana

nonsenseking 2026-07-06 07:31:42

they expalined their methodology

they expalined their methodology

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:32:25

Can we get a Doeden Rhoden Wedgewood poll

Can we get a Doeden Rhoden Wedgewood poll

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:32:41

Why have we gotten no polls for that race

Why have we gotten no polls for that race

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:34:10

I also want Lamb vs Keenan polls

I also want Lamb vs Keenan polls

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:35:32

Wedgewood and TPSI > Siena/NYT

Wedgewood and TPSI > Siena/NYT

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:37:33

What is the evidence for this? I don’t disagree with the black voters but not sure about white working class (other than just not liking Muslims)

What is the evidence for this? I don’t disagree with the black voters but not sure about white working class (other than just not liking Muslims)

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-06 07:39:38

wedgewood needs to do fl-gov

wedgewood needs to do fl-gov

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:41:53

I want a poll post disqualification to see if I’m right about fishback voters breaking for Renner

I want a poll post disqualification to see if I’m right about fishback voters breaking for Renner

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:42:17

Cause the 2nd place market could get interesting between Collins and Renner

Cause the 2nd place market could get interesting between Collins and Renner

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-06 07:43:57

what are they gonna do after fishback is disqualified but he still wins a majority of votes?

what are they gonna do after fishback is disqualified but he still wins a majority of votes?

i2dt 2026-07-06 07:44:01

I need to look at the cross tabs of the polling. I just know the splits are huge between young (Sayed) and old (Stevens

I need to look at the cross tabs of the polling. I just know the splits are huge between young (Sayed) and old (Stevens

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:45:07

Idk much about older Michigan dems tbh

Idk much about older Michigan dems tbh

not ess pea 2026-07-06 07:45:20

Like it’s a given the younger ones would back Sayed

Like it’s a given the younger ones would back Sayed

mark zuckerberg 2026-07-06 19:37:00

Stevens has a really annoying voice

Stevens has a really annoying voice