Polymarketand im serious
and im serious
NooT参与话题 1消息总数 253
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共 253 条，显示第 151-200 条i was the first to do it
i was the first to do it
fucking hell they stole my idea
fucking hell they stole my idea
theyll prob use the eth chain
theyll prob use the eth chain
not when trump says were tokenizing our water supply
not when trump says were tokenizing our water supply
Yeah it should be on ur profile i assume
Yeah it should be on ur profile i assume
GAMBLE MORE
GAMBLE MORE
https://tenor.com/view/chief-keef-nah-rowdy-dance-happy-gif-14753397
https://tenor.com/view/chief-keef-nah-rowdy-dance-happy-gif-14753397
generating a 4% taker edge
generating a 4% taker edge
$10 size PNL ~100 trades taken forward so far
$10 size PNL ~100 trades taken forward so far
im fine to share to the group cause i created the software for it 😭
im fine to share to the group cause i created the software for it 😭
SMA x VWAP crossover strat forward test is going SO well
SMA x VWAP crossover strat forward test is going SO well
So much liquidity
So much liquidity
I fucking love the 5m markets
I fucking love the 5m markets
its all love just be safe when ur gambling as thats what ur doing
its all love just be safe when ur gambling as thats what ur doing
I think 54% is a fine percentage too
I think 54% is a fine percentage too
holy im glad i tped
holy im glad i tped
https://klipy.com/gifs/dj-khaled-another-one-4
https://klipy.com/gifs/dj-khaled-another-one-4
im making enough on the crypto markets to gamble a bit
im making enough on the crypto markets to gamble a bit
Ill sell you the no 😭
Ill sell you the no 😭
theres edge under 48%
theres edge under 48%
buy the no on the btc 5m rn
buy the no on the btc 5m rn
im just saying be safe
im just saying be safe
Im not saying im leaning on the NO side either
Im not saying im leaning on the NO side either
https://klipy.com/gifs/nothing-ever-happens-chud
https://klipy.com/gifs/nothing-ever-happens-chud
It demands output and
It demands output and
theres the coinflip odds
theres the coinflip odds
"I think"
"I think"
To justify a 54% market price, you'd need hitters to be around 85% likely to homer on essentially every extension swing, including the last scheduled swing. That's possible for elite Derby participants, but it's a demanding assumption. If I had to make a rough estimate before seeing player-specific data: Below 45%: I'd lean Yes. Around 50–55%: I'd consider it fairly priced. Above 60%: I'd lean No. <@695090813679697942> What chatgpt told me
To justify a 54% market price, you'd need hitters to be around 85% likely to homer on essentially every extension swing, including the last scheduled swing. That's possible for elite Derby participants, but it's a demanding assumption. If I had to make a rough estimate before seeing player-specific data: Below 45%: I'd lean Yes. Around 50–55%: I'd consider it fairly priced. Above 60%: I'd lean No. <@695090813679697942> What chatgpt told me
gotta be realllly quick with statistical arb mispricings
gotta be realllly quick with statistical arb mispricings
ie statistical arbitrage traders
ie statistical arbitrage traders
ppl dont play bout they funds, and when ppl do play about them.. they get taken advantage of
ppl dont play bout they funds, and when ppl do play about them.. they get taken advantage of
its a bit to calculate but im sure if there is enough volume in the line its priced correctly
its a bit to calculate but im sure if there is enough volume in the line its priced correctly
and calculate yourself if 54% is the correct number
and calculate yourself if 54% is the correct number
find out past stats of swing to hr ratio
find out past stats of swing to hr ratio
2024 and onward weve had bonus swings
2024 and onward weve had bonus swings
that was 23 22 and 21
that was 23 22 and 21
its fine at 54% the past 2 have gotten O3.5
its fine at 54% the past 2 have gotten O3.5
line is not mispriced
line is not mispriced
its been like that for the past 2
its been like that for the past 2
im srs
im srs
thats totaly not mispriced
thats totaly not mispriced
100% yes
100% yes
bonus swing HR
bonus swing HR
is there a seperate bonus outs line?
is there a seperate bonus outs line?
the past 2 hr derbys there has only been 4 bonus outs
the past 2 hr derbys there has only been 4 bonus outs
actually
actually
well
well
its not mispriced
its not mispriced
https://klipy.com/gifs/another-one-5
https://klipy.com/gifs/another-one-5