Kalshiwhyd you chnage in the first place
whyd you chnage in the first place
ffs参与话题 16消息总数 435
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 435 条，显示第 251-300 条yooo next time I lose a bet im just gonna complain to willy and get refunded
yooo next time I lose a bet im just gonna complain to willy and get refunded
but also let him get torched in the chat for complaining
but also let him get torched in the chat for complaining
let the man complain
let the man complain
these strikes are bait for people who cant find more alpha elsewhere
these strikes are bait for people who cant find more alpha elsewhere
maybe team beast sends kalshi a transcript
maybe team beast sends kalshi a transcript
is there any solution if I dont want to get satellite
is there any solution if I dont want to get satellite
my fox stream is like 10 secs behind....
my fox stream is like 10 secs behind....
there's so much talk about rodgers that i want to buy in to have fun
there's so much talk about rodgers that i want to buy in to have fun
And either way I have no reason to give away my orders/positions/balance etc to someone I don’t really know
And either way I have no reason to give away my orders/positions/balance etc to someone I don’t really know
The fact that you suggest this as a general tool with any kind of api access is immediately very sketchy regardless if your intentions are good or bad
The fact that you suggest this as a general tool with any kind of api access is immediately very sketchy regardless if your intentions are good or bad
so was trying to get in at a better price
so was trying to get in at a better price
i had a thesis that they wouldn't mention tms slate of games until 2nd half
i had a thesis that they wouldn't mention tms slate of games until 2nd half
nws
nws
part of it was me 🙁
part of it was me 🙁
faster than the other people
faster than the other people
"at least 6+ " sounds stupid
"at least 6+ " sounds stupid
"If Egypt records at least 6+ corners during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)..."
"If Egypt records at least 6+ corners during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)..."
i hate the way that these props are worded in the rules
i hate the way that these props are worded in the rules
Check the other clip
Check the other clip
Simply that it kinda sounds like bloody
Simply that it kinda sounds like bloody
Simply have a port big enough that you will never hit whatever fraction Kelly you want
Simply have a port big enough that you will never hit whatever fraction Kelly you want
That’s alpha that my Kelly based prediction market hedge fund will capture that you won’t
That’s alpha that my Kelly based prediction market hedge fund will capture that you won’t
Different words same idea probably
Different words same idea probably
Haha same it’s late for me
Haha same it’s late for me
Well maybe I do not understand what you mean by risk appetite
Well maybe I do not understand what you mean by risk appetite
Sort of? I’m p sure it’s not risk appetite adjustment it’s maximizing portfolio growth over time
Sort of? I’m p sure it’s not risk appetite adjustment it’s maximizing portfolio growth over time
It’s full Kelly if you are 100% confident in your ability to calculate FV 🥺
It’s full Kelly if you are 100% confident in your ability to calculate FV 🥺
Simply add this into your FV
Simply add this into your FV
So I mean
So I mean
You need certain FV and the capacity to make that bet an infinite amount of times
You need certain FV and the capacity to make that bet an infinite amount of times
I think your message is entirely unresponsive to what I wrote but. I could be tired and not getting it
I think your message is entirely unresponsive to what I wrote but. I could be tired and not getting it
Ok and
Ok and
Not sure if that’s true, if you’re looking for bonds, you have some idea that You have to look for +ev things. Which is imo not the sane as traditionally dangerous pattern gambling
Not sure if that’s true, if you’re looking for bonds, you have some idea that You have to look for +ev things. Which is imo not the sane as traditionally dangerous pattern gambling
Just sell some of it man you will feel better
Just sell some of it man you will feel better
Extent
Extent
I need to abstract them away to some event
I need to abstract them away to some event
You are much more goated than I am, I have a lot of trouble finding a good framework to evaluate these tail risk events
You are much more goated than I am, I have a lot of trouble finding a good framework to evaluate these tail risk events
I am sorry 🙁
I am sorry 🙁
You can port while getting giga cancer
You can port while getting giga cancer
Not sure how much I value this kind of thinking, like at what point do you start evaluating the counterparty risk of kalshi itself stealing your money? Of Iran starting nuclear war? Etc
Not sure how much I value this kind of thinking, like at what point do you start evaluating the counterparty risk of kalshi itself stealing your money? Of Iran starting nuclear war? Etc
Yeah I would never /recommend/ more than 20 pct but I don’t think it’s unreasonable for someone to have more.
Yeah I would never /recommend/ more than 20 pct but I don’t think it’s unreasonable for someone to have more.
Depends heavily on the type of trading you’re doing I think…. But you would know if you should put more than 20 pct
Depends heavily on the type of trading you’re doing I think…. But you would know if you should put more than 20 pct
Fortune favors the Y (?)
Fortune favors the Y (?)
Nothing i say is financial advice blah blah
Nothing i say is financial advice blah blah
If so, you can and probably should sell a portion
If so, you can and probably should sell a portion
Don’t kick him while he’s down
Don’t kick him while he’s down
How do you bond then
How do you bond then
Don’t tell this guy ab price resolve
Don’t tell this guy ab price resolve
Think of it as 1pct but 50 times
Think of it as 1pct but 50 times