Kalshiidk how you guys take positions in these low information markets like VT governer
idk how you guys take positions in these low information markets like VT governer
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共 92 条，显示第 51-92 条Not playing devils advocate btw, genuinely considering if I want to by in more
Not playing devils advocate btw, genuinely considering if I want to by in more
Right but if thats the case, then Hong's result in the convention is more likely an overestimate than underestimate, right?
Right but if thats the case, then Hong's result in the convention is more likely an overestimate than underestimate, right?
I still think her odds are maybe underpriced but that would be because I anticipate a high turnout year and effective consolidation of the progressive wing whereas moderates will be split
I still think her odds are maybe underpriced but that would be because I anticipate a high turnout year and effective consolidation of the progressive wing whereas moderates will be split
Aren't democratic party activists more likely to be left-leaning though? I know there are some establishment organizers who vote in the straw polls, but my understanding is that its mostly the people who are really involved in the grassroots organizing efforts, not the career politician folks
Aren't democratic party activists more likely to be left-leaning though? I know there are some establishment organizers who vote in the straw polls, but my understanding is that its mostly the people who are really involved in the grassroots organizing efforts, not the career politician folks
aren't conventions typically more ideologically extreme?
aren't conventions typically more ideologically extreme?
Why has rodriguez shot up? is that just where the barnes money is going?
Why has rodriguez shot up? is that just where the barnes money is going?
i want to go in a bit cause she has a lot of grassroots support and seems to have a favorable national mood
i want to go in a bit cause she has a lot of grassroots support and seems to have a favorable national mood
Is hong a good buy in Wisconsin? Her search volume in-state is superior but she’s behind her rivals financially
Is hong a good buy in Wisconsin? Her search volume in-state is superior but she’s behind her rivals financially
Rubio is the biden of the republican party. No one is that excited about him but they trust him because hes just been lurking around in high places for so damn long
Rubio is the biden of the republican party. No one is that excited about him but they trust him because hes just been lurking around in high places for so damn long
I still think it will be Newsom because it seems like thats what the DNC wants and that's the only mandate that matters in democratic presidential primaries
I still think it will be Newsom because it seems like thats what the DNC wants and that's the only mandate that matters in democratic presidential primaries
I’m trying to form a mental model of the type of person who moves from Donalds to fishback over this issue and it’s very confusing
I’m trying to form a mental model of the type of person who moves from Donalds to fishback over this issue and it’s very confusing
i just have fomo for not taking larger positions in the ones i am paying attention to
i just have fomo for not taking larger positions in the ones i am paying attention to
wish i had dumped all my money into progressive candidates this year instead of buying a car
wish i had dumped all my money into progressive candidates this year instead of buying a car
Evidently Platner has won more votes than any other Democratic candidate in history in a Maine Senate primary
Evidently Platner has won more votes than any other Democratic candidate in history in a Maine Senate primary
I think michigan dem primary has been a big one but no one else seems to share this conviction for some reason
I think michigan dem primary has been a big one but no one else seems to share this conviction for some reason
I did buy some byron N second place
I did buy some byron N second place
I was thinking he might spike for a bit after the debate when people over 30 will hear about him for the first time
I was thinking he might spike for a bit after the debate when people over 30 will hear about him for the first time
the problem with the fishback campaign is that he has no money and byron has like 80 million dollars
the problem with the fishback campaign is that he has no money and byron has like 80 million dollars
Mamdani got the same treatment
Mamdani got the same treatment
all the scandals in my opinon have been nothingburgers so far. I think most people probably feel the same
all the scandals in my opinon have been nothingburgers so far. I think most people probably feel the same
yeah thats fair, I thnk its probably more so that he was gonna keep rising anyway and nobody cared that much
yeah thats fair, I thnk its probably more so that he was gonna keep rising anyway and nobody cared that much
the skull and crossbones -> nazi angle was always kind of a dirty leap
the skull and crossbones -> nazi angle was always kind of a dirty leap
people tend to rally around the flag
people tend to rally around the flag
its almost like all politicians are flawed and scumbags
its almost like all politicians are flawed and scumbags
I agree, but what leverage do they have to pressure him to drop out? It's not like they didn't actively support Mills already. Not like they can promise him a cabinet position or something
I agree, but what leverage do they have to pressure him to drop out? It's not like they didn't actively support Mills already. Not like they can promise him a cabinet position or something
people believe what they want to believe regardless of what the news says
people believe what they want to believe regardless of what the news says
I don't think even that would change enough to get people to vote for Mills over him, what was it, like a 40% polling lead before she suspended her campaign?
I don't think even that would change enough to get people to vote for Mills over him, what was it, like a 40% polling lead before she suspended her campaign?
accepted him
accepted him
The problem with that argument is that they seemingly already have
The problem with that argument is that they seemingly already have
I genuinely have no idea what this means
I genuinely have no idea what this means
What's the drop out scenario? They're sitting on something bigger to drop once he wins the nomination?
What's the drop out scenario? They're sitting on something bigger to drop once he wins the nomination?
Put Kamala in
Put Kamala in
Mills "reminding people she's still in it" is the Jeb Bush "please clap" moment
Mills "reminding people she's still in it" is the Jeb Bush "please clap" moment
I think I'm going in at this price
I think I'm going in at this price
one way to look at it is that there's less time for a candidate to recover the closer it is to the election date. He bounced back from the nazi thing
one way to look at it is that there's less time for a candidate to recover the closer it is to the election date. He bounced back from the nazi thing
The Democratic party has a long, long history of sawing the legs off of its progressive candidates whenever possible
The Democratic party has a long, long history of sawing the legs off of its progressive candidates whenever possible
What makes you think it's republicans?
What makes you think it's republicans?
What makes you say so?
What makes you say so?
Yeah fair. I’d be questioning it if the situation wasn’t historically low approval ratings + historically unpopular war
Yeah fair. I’d be questioning it if the situation wasn’t historically low approval ratings + historically unpopular war
Presidents party suffers the midterm penalty even in years where they are popular
Presidents party suffers the midterm penalty even in years where they are popular
Dem House is a no brainer imo
Dem House is a no brainer imo
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