Polymarketis there any difference?
is there any difference?
Jaroslav参与话题 6消息总数 228
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共 228 条，显示第 151-200 条consensus is about source agreement and the amwaj/iran draft conflicts with the bbg/arabiya draft enough that we cannot surmise their relationship. both are credible, neither has consensus.
consensus is about source agreement and the amwaj/iran draft conflicts with the bbg/arabiya draft enough that we cannot surmise their relationship. both are credible, neither has consensus.
we have to see if this is real
we have to see if this is real
It will probably be extended 10-15 years
It will probably be extended 10-15 years
No because the US didn’t say they can restart after 60 days
No because the US didn’t say they can restart after 60 days
I’m having trouble parsing
I’m having trouble parsing
Not sure
Not sure
Consensus of credible reporting Every source that explains that clause will attest it implies enrichment freeze Anyone who thinks it doesn’t mean that is just factually wrong
Consensus of credible reporting Every source that explains that clause will attest it implies enrichment freeze Anyone who thinks it doesn’t mean that is just factually wrong
Nabavian on state tv
Nabavian on state tv
For now it is
For now it is
That’s the meaning of the status quo clause
That’s the meaning of the status quo clause
'What's the list? One: our nuclear status quo be preserved. What does that mean? Let me say quickly — since the 12-day war until now we haven't enriched a single gram. Preserve it — we ourselves said we'd preserve it, i.e. no more enrichment, until the final agreement we don't know the date of' 'But until then [in the meantime], Iran itself is proposing to freeze 3 things: Our current nuclear status, meaning no enrichment'
'What's the list? One: our nuclear status quo be preserved. What does that mean? Let me say quickly — since the 12-day war until now we haven't enriched a single gram. Preserve it — we ourselves said we'd preserve it, i.e. no more enrichment, until the final agreement we don't know the date of' 'But until then [in the meantime], Iran itself is proposing to freeze 3 things: Our current nuclear status, meaning no enrichment'
NUCLEAR: * Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. * Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities. * The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement. * Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
NUCLEAR: * Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. * Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities. * The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement. * Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
Because they never promised not to enrich before
Because they never promised not to enrich before
They’re entering a legally obligatory 60 day enrichment freeze
They’re entering a legally obligatory 60 day enrichment freeze
Any amount of time counts under the rules
Any amount of time counts under the rules
So for the market to go y they have to start enriching and then stop? That’s clearly not the intent
So for the market to go y they have to start enriching and then stop? That’s clearly not the intent
But until then [in the meantime], Iran itself is proposing to freeze 3 things: • Our current nuclear status, meaning no enrichment • The damaged nuclear facilities staying as they are instead of being rebuilt • US [nuclear] sanctions remaining in place.
But until then [in the meantime], Iran itself is proposing to freeze 3 things: • Our current nuclear status, meaning no enrichment • The damaged nuclear facilities staying as they are instead of being rebuilt • US [nuclear] sanctions remaining in place.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose Especially on this one
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose Especially on this one
We’ll have to see how it’s reported
We’ll have to see how it’s reported
Amwaj is a highly credible outlet and they were the first in the world to report the correct signing date of the MOU, for example.
Amwaj is a highly credible outlet and they were the first in the world to report the correct signing date of the MOU, for example.
they were the first outlet in the world to report the correct signing date of the MOU
they were the first outlet in the world to report the correct signing date of the MOU
every news report ALLEGES something
every news report ALLEGES something
Rules: > A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which **explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease**, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. [Text](https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/inside-story-iran-us-explicitly-agree-on-peace-in-lebanon-but-will-israel-end-war) of the signed memorandum of understanding (MOU): > Paragraph 1 of the MOU is said to state that **Iran and the US**, “and their allies in the current war…**declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on **not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other**, and to **refrain from the threat or use of force against each other**, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” Announcement of the agreement by Pakistan: > Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides **have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Announcement of the agreement by Iran: > Based on the agreements reached, **the war** and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, **will end immediately and permanently as of tonight**, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely.
Rules: > A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which **explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease**, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. [Text](https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/inside-story-iran-us-explicitly-agree-on-peace-in-lebanon-but-will-israel-end-war) of the signed memorandum of understanding (MOU): > Paragraph 1 of the MOU is said to state that **Iran and the US**, “and their allies in the current war…**declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on **not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other**, and to **refrain from the threat or use of force against each other**, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” Announcement of the agreement by Pakistan: > Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides **have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Announcement of the agreement by Iran: > Based on the agreements reached, **the war** and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, **will end immediately and permanently as of tonight**, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely.
Paragraph 1 of the MOU is said to state that Iran and the US, “and their allies in the current war…declare the immediate and **permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on **not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other**, and to **refrain from the threat or use of force against each other**, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”
Paragraph 1 of the MOU is said to state that Iran and the US, “and their allies in the current war…declare the immediate and **permanent termination of military operations** on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on **not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other**, and to **refrain from the threat or use of force against each other**, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”
I like both ideas tbh but release of a full draft seems like a more important event to predict
I like both ideas tbh but release of a full draft seems like a more important event to predict
nyt seems to be triangulating to a better description
nyt seems to be triangulating to a better description
factmogged
factmogged
you're saying sharif is the non-credible one in that scenario?
you're saying sharif is the non-credible one in that scenario?
actually no, turkishly named only
actually no, turkishly named only
and Iran and the white house and the AP and Reuters and AFP and NBC and CBS and the Times of Israel and every outlet in Iran and ...
and Iran and the white house and the AP and Reuters and AFP and NBC and CBS and the Times of Israel and every outlet in Iran and ...
Deniz = Turkish Denis = Ukrainian
Deniz = Turkish Denis = Ukrainian
formally adopt is left undefined in the rules but formally announcing and formally implementing is formal and adopty enough for me to call formal adoption.
formally adopt is left undefined in the rules but formally announcing and formally implementing is formal and adopty enough for me to call formal adoption.
Are those what you come up with when you think gay chechen
Are those what you come up with when you think gay chechen
The point is that the Pakistani claim is highly credible and many of the most reliable sources report it as prima facie accurate in their estimation. Each reliable source that cites it as accurate actually adds something to our certainty level.
The point is that the Pakistani claim is highly credible and many of the most reliable sources report it as prima facie accurate in their estimation. Each reliable source that cites it as accurate actually adds something to our certainty level.
why does it say sign or formally adopt then
why does it say sign or formally adopt then
it's the chechen pride flag
it's the chechen pride flag
It also allows formal adoption of the agreement and clarification of its content by other means
It also allows formal adoption of the agreement and clarification of its content by other means
I think we also have to use our noggins to ascertain who is guessing about the draft and who is speaking from authority. The primary source provided by Pakistan is far more compelling than casual descriptions from some official on background.
I think we also have to use our noggins to ascertain who is guessing about the draft and who is speaking from authority. The primary source provided by Pakistan is far more compelling than casual descriptions from some official on background.
One issue is I don't think Poly dismisses the AFP, NBC etc., because they relied on Pakistan. AFP and NBC are ipso facto credible reporting sources and the fact that they as credible outlets foregrounded Pakistan's account allows us to as well as we look for the most credible story supplied by the reporting.
One issue is I don't think Poly dismisses the AFP, NBC etc., because they relied on Pakistan. AFP and NBC are ipso facto credible reporting sources and the fact that they as credible outlets foregrounded Pakistan's account allows us to as well as we look for the most credible story supplied by the reporting.
yeah but why would he authorize them opening the strait? it's a weird thing to say
yeah but why would he authorize them opening the strait? it's a weird thing to say
> I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. "authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" is a weird thing for him to say but it makes a bit more sense given that he threatened to toll the strait a number of times. in any case he said he is authorizing the opening, not that iran is authorizing. he clarified that they are authorizing on friday.
> I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. "authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" is a weird thing for him to say but it makes a bit more sense given that he threatened to toll the strait a number of times. in any case he said he is authorizing the opening, not that iran is authorizing. he clarified that they are authorizing on friday.
that was literally why i slammed those 745k
that was literally why i slammed those 745k
No, the first one says he is lifting his blockade and any restrictions from his side. The second one says that Iran is lifting its blockade on Friday. Vagaries of implementation or lack thereof after announcement are irrelevant to the resolution. It's extremely clear that Trump announced the lifting of the US blockade.
No, the first one says he is lifting his blockade and any restrictions from his side. The second one says that Iran is lifting its blockade on Friday. Vagaries of implementation or lack thereof after announcement are irrelevant to the resolution. It's extremely clear that Trump announced the lifting of the US blockade.
originally i had 745k at 3.7c or smth
originally i had 745k at 3.7c or smth
You're talking about the "Peace and Security to the whole Region" Truth? I don't think it was a walk back at all. I just explained my interpretation.
You're talking about the "Peace and Security to the whole Region" Truth? I don't think it was a walk back at all. I just explained my interpretation.
because he said hopefully it will work out and we all knew nothing was agreed?
because he said hopefully it will work out and we all knew nothing was agreed?
I actually think you misunderstood this Trump Truth The deal is already in force as per the Iranian and Pakistani statements and Trump's about lifting the blockade. This current deal, per Trump, will bring lasting peace and security to the whole region It's also true that they are going to have a signing ceremony, and that Iran will end its blockade at that time. So yes, this is a statement where he essentially says the deal ends the war.
I actually think you misunderstood this Trump Truth The deal is already in force as per the Iranian and Pakistani statements and Trump's about lifting the blockade. This current deal, per Trump, will bring lasting peace and security to the whole region It's also true that they are going to have a signing ceremony, and that Iran will end its blockade at that time. So yes, this is a statement where he essentially says the deal ends the war.
convicted child porn enjoyer
convicted child porn enjoyer
it's an official white house release
it's an official white house release