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Effendi参与话题 0消息总数 351

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Effendi 2026-06-16 19:31:45 Polymarket

No and that’s not necessary for the market (and also not relevant in reality)

No and that’s not necessary for the market (and also not relevant in reality)

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:30:57 Polymarket

The PM spoke on the agreement yesterday

The PM spoke on the agreement yesterday

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:30:12 Polymarket

Denying that they’ll adhere to it not that the agreement doesn’t exist

Denying that they’ll adhere to it not that the agreement doesn’t exist

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:28:58 Polymarket

The agreement was negotiated by the Iranians and Americans where Hezbollah and Israel are parties of the overarching agreement between the Americans and Iranians

The agreement was negotiated by the Iranians and Americans where Hezbollah and Israel are parties of the overarching agreement between the Americans and Iranians

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:28:17 Polymarket

Hezbollah has very clearly communicated Israel has mainly communicated that they won’t abide by the deal in communicating the deals existence

Hezbollah has very clearly communicated Israel has mainly communicated that they won’t abide by the deal in communicating the deals existence

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:27:38 Polymarket

Whether in the rules or reality

Whether in the rules or reality

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:27:32 Polymarket

There’s functionally zero difference

There’s functionally zero difference

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:27:22 Polymarket

All of these arguments can be used to apply to permanent peace btw

All of these arguments can be used to apply to permanent peace btw

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:27:04 Polymarket

The latter

The latter

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:26:25 Polymarket

For an agreement to be implemented yes, for the agreement to exist, no

For an agreement to be implemented yes, for the agreement to exist, no

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:25:40 Polymarket

I mean if we’re talking about the reality the deal definitely includes Hezb & Israel as was agreed by the Americans and Iranians you’re just looking at domestic political variables in Israel around the messaging

I mean if we’re talking about the reality the deal definitely includes Hezb & Israel as was agreed by the Americans and Iranians you’re just looking at domestic political variables in Israel around the messaging

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:23:56 Polymarket

If you change the rules to mean ascent to the deal you can argue that the Israelis have denied that they’ll participate

If you change the rules to mean ascent to the deal you can argue that the Israelis have denied that they’ll participate

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:23:25 Polymarket

The bar is very low, the existence of a deal is really all that’s needed if you go by the rules

The bar is very low, the existence of a deal is really all that’s needed if you go by the rules

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:22:17 Polymarket

Has*

Has*

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:22:10 Polymarket

Iran have been clear on it being permanent cessation of hostilities Americans have been far less clear

Iran have been clear on it being permanent cessation of hostilities Americans have been far less clear

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:19:53 Polymarket

No either or, both parties sign / adopt **OR** both clearly communicate such an agreement exists

No either or, both parties sign / adopt **OR** both clearly communicate such an agreement exists

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:19:21 Polymarket

Well from which angle because reality is borderline indisputable as far as I see it

Well from which angle because reality is borderline indisputable as far as I see it

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:17:39 Polymarket

My argument is all of the markets should resolve the exact same as they’re all parties and the distinction of the deal being directly between the US and Iran is unsubstantial in both reality and the rules

My argument is all of the markets should resolve the exact same as they’re all parties and the distinction of the deal being directly between the US and Iran is unsubstantial in both reality and the rules

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:16:52 Polymarket

If you guys truly think Israel is some independent variable here you’re deluded

If you guys truly think Israel is some independent variable here you’re deluded

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:16:24 Polymarket

Problem with this place is you never know if people are arguing from a position of ignorance or bad faith or both

Problem with this place is you never know if people are arguing from a position of ignorance or bad faith or both

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:13:46 Polymarket

Either Iran US permanent deal shouldn’t go through or this one should

Either Iran US permanent deal shouldn’t go through or this one should

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:13:33 Polymarket

To be clear in reality this has happened and the sole variable at play is related to Israeli politics

To be clear in reality this has happened and the sole variable at play is related to Israeli politics

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:13:10 Polymarket

I mean they’re not active parties in the conflict it’s obviously nowhere near equivalent

I mean they’re not active parties in the conflict it’s obviously nowhere near equivalent

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:12:46 Polymarket

I’m not talking about the markets but reality

I’m not talking about the markets but reality

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:12:37 Polymarket

No both are involved directly

No both are involved directly

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:11:49 Polymarket

Yes to both but ignoramuses will insist otherwise

Yes to both but ignoramuses will insist otherwise

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:11:29 Polymarket

You absolutely can when in the case of both Iran and the United States you have substantial leverage over the junior party and are operating jointly in a conflict

You absolutely can when in the case of both Iran and the United States you have substantial leverage over the junior party and are operating jointly in a conflict

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:11:03 Polymarket

There’s a lot of political messaging going on atm that is muddying the waters as far as what’s actually happening

There’s a lot of political messaging going on atm that is muddying the waters as far as what’s actually happening

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:10:41 Polymarket

Yes as the deal involves all parties

Yes as the deal involves all parties

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:10:00 Polymarket

And nuclear deal

And nuclear deal

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:09:45 Polymarket

Both markets are similarly cucky and the notion that Israelis and Hezb aren’t junior parties to this deal is silly

Both markets are similarly cucky and the notion that Israelis and Hezb aren’t junior parties to this deal is silly

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:09:05 Polymarket

It’s the truth this is central to the entire thing

It’s the truth this is central to the entire thing

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:08:29 Polymarket

This was a central sticking point to getting that original MOU if we’re talking about reality

This was a central sticking point to getting that original MOU if we’re talking about reality

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:08:14 Polymarket

It’s no more of a cuck in reality than US Iran permanent peace

It’s no more of a cuck in reality than US Iran permanent peace

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:07:24 Polymarket

I don’t really care much what happens with it but I think the insistence of it as a cuck or distortion is silly I doubt it’ll work but it definitely aligns with reality

I don’t really care much what happens with it but I think the insistence of it as a cuck or distortion is silly I doubt it’ll work but it definitely aligns with reality

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:06:35 Polymarket

I don’t think it’s a cuck I think this is the deal, the central sticking point was the general ceasefire and the presumption that this isn’t primarily an American Iran confrontation with Hezbollah and Israel as junior partners is silly

I don’t think it’s a cuck I think this is the deal, the central sticking point was the general ceasefire and the presumption that this isn’t primarily an American Iran confrontation with Hezbollah and Israel as junior partners is silly

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:05:37 Polymarket

Is this guy changing his cat profile pic like every 5 mins

Is this guy changing his cat profile pic like every 5 mins

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:04:56 Polymarket

The latter point has happened, both have clearly communicated the existence of this agreement

The latter point has happened, both have clearly communicated the existence of this agreement

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:03:52 Polymarket

Adoption or implementation isn’t required

Adoption or implementation isn’t required

Effendi 2026-06-16 19:03:22 Polymarket

There’s elements of this yes but claiming they don’t have to abide is more broad there has been a lot of claims made at this point

There’s elements of this yes but claiming they don’t have to abide is more broad there has been a lot of claims made at this point

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:39:23 Polymarket

No ratio loan

No ratio loan

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:35:34 Polymarket

Or get a cheaper condo…

Or get a cheaper condo…

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:32:18 Polymarket

I still don’t understand why ur so opposed to buying a condo ngl

I still don’t understand why ur so opposed to buying a condo ngl

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:28:30 Polymarket

triacetone triperoxide

triacetone triperoxide

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:27:13 Polymarket

💀

💀

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:26:44 Polymarket

You banned too?

You banned too?

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:25:23 Polymarket

Avi

Avi

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:24:56 Polymarket

I think the perm peace bros made a mistake by letting the kiddie sniffer dominate the conversation for hours that night ngl

I think the perm peace bros made a mistake by letting the kiddie sniffer dominate the conversation for hours that night ngl

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:22:32 Polymarket

Truly devastating stuff

Truly devastating stuff

Effendi 2026-06-16 15:22:07 Polymarket

Devastating

Devastating