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- they have committed to signing a final deal (clause 3) - they have committed to withdrawing troops once the final deal is signed (clause 4) - therefore they have agreed to withdraw troops the logic isn't too hard to follow when you break it down
- they have committed to signing a final deal (clause 3) - they have committed to withdrawing troops once the final deal is signed (clause 4) - therefore they have agreed to withdraw troops the logic isn't too hard to follow when you break it down
faith in poly is the best N argument we have, good to know
faith in poly is the best N argument we have, good to know
i dont think that disqualifies it per the rules
i dont think that disqualifies it per the rules
<@831070869459566604> do you actually have a counter to this, or just praying for a clarif? a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal is included in the MOU, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops. Clause 3+4 together make it a definitive agreement
<@831070869459566604> do you actually have a counter to this, or just praying for a clarif? a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal is included in the MOU, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops. Clause 3+4 together make it a definitive agreement
a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal is included in the MOU, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops. Without clause 3, clause 4 alone probably wouldn't qualify
a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal is included in the MOU, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops. Without clause 3, clause 4 alone probably wouldn't qualify
Clause 4 without clause 3 -> doesnt qualify imo, and thats where the confusion comes from
Clause 4 without clause 3 -> doesnt qualify imo, and thats where the confusion comes from
Bad rules, but hard for it not to go Y
Bad rules, but hard for it not to go Y
I was on P4, but rereading clause 3 makes it tilt yes imo a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops
I was on P4, but rereading clause 3 makes it tilt yes imo a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops. Key point is there is a commitment to a final deal, and therefore an agreement to withdraw troops
spirit is "N", probably why I was N. but given: a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops
spirit is "N", probably why I was N. but given: a) both sides commit to reaching a final deal in the MOU (clause 3) b) after this final deal has been reached, the US will withdraw troops (clause 4) -> they have a commitment to withdraw troops
yeh thats actually a reasonable take
yeh thats actually a reasonable take
were you Y on MSTR sells btc?
were you Y on MSTR sells btc?
market goes N on that though
market goes N on that though
both sides are lying and its actually the final text -> very possible lol
both sides are lying and its actually the final text -> very possible lol
Iranian denial, US denial. why is june 17 so high?
Iranian denial, US denial. why is june 17 so high?
good effort on the scam
good effort on the scam
you understand "some accurate reporting" can refer to outlets mentioning specific parts accurately - has no bearing to "the whole text is accurate"
you understand "some accurate reporting" can refer to outlets mentioning specific parts accurately - has no bearing to "the whole text is accurate"
loool. i think both sides are state propoganda at this point
loool. i think both sides are state propoganda at this point
Anon US Official, propogating the same rumour across a few outlets, stating that its "reportedly" the text, with Iranians denying it -> Not a consensus of credible reporting
Anon US Official, propogating the same rumour across a few outlets, stating that its "reportedly" the text, with Iranians denying it -> Not a consensus of credible reporting
*However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement* **Tasnim: Insider source: Bloomberg’s claimed text about the agreement is not accurate** what are we even debating here? One side is flat out saying the text is wrong. Given both sides have told very different stories throughout this whole war - it would be intellectually dishonest to say we have a clear consensus here. So many unknowns
*However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement* **Tasnim: Insider source: Bloomberg’s claimed text about the agreement is not accurate** what are we even debating here? One side is flat out saying the text is wrong. Given both sides have told very different stories throughout this whole war - it would be intellectually dishonest to say we have a clear consensus here. So many unknowns
i've seen 4 versions of it while drinking my coffee, all slightly different
i've seen 4 versions of it while drinking my coffee, all slightly different
what are we talking about? iran deal text being released?
what are we talking about? iran deal text being released?
signing market and airspace still exist
signing market and airspace still exist
how does one get on the whitelist to propose markets? so many markets to be proposed that take ages
how does one get on the whitelist to propose markets? so many markets to be proposed that take ages
good add to poly even if we do get strike markets back
good add to poly even if we do get strike markets back
yep
yep
i mean they posted it
i mean they posted it
safe to say no consensus, and neither credible 🙂
safe to say no consensus, and neither credible 🙂
tasnim vs mehr
tasnim vs mehr
its just tasnim news being propogated everywhere
its just tasnim news being propogated everywhere
sorry - just trying to help
sorry - just trying to help
dont waste your time, its not a winning argument. just wait for confirmation my friend
dont waste your time, its not a winning argument. just wait for confirmation my friend
nothing official yet, we've played this game before. will probably come shortly though
nothing official yet, we've played this game before. will probably come shortly though
decent OB you can do some damage to
decent OB you can do some damage to
i think we know at this point both sides have their fair share of noise
i think we know at this point both sides have their fair share of noise
absolute madness
absolute madness
insider trading on iran airspace market?
insider trading on iran airspace market?
iran airspace market
iran airspace market
careful busto, with that logic you might end up becoming this guy
careful busto, with that logic you might end up becoming this guy
thats a wsj article, pretty funny ha
thats a wsj article, pretty funny ha
before a cnbc link timed me out
before a cnbc link timed me out
how can i post links here without getting timed out?
how can i post links here without getting timed out?
How a Student’s Surefire Bet on Polymarket Went to Zero—Thanks to Fine Print - WSJ
How a Student’s Surefire Bet on Polymarket Went to Zero—Thanks to Fine Print - WSJ
<@886004822669664286> if trump says right now “i’ll remove all iranian oil sanctions if they sign the deal”. Would that count for Y as you atm?
<@886004822669664286> if trump says right now “i’ll remove all iranian oil sanctions if they sign the deal”. Would that count for Y as you atm?
Your take on ceasefire was wild yday lol, but this sounds reasonable
Your take on ceasefire was wild yday lol, but this sounds reasonable
Makes sense
Makes sense
Like taking it to the extreme, if the deal has some crazy unmeetable condition for oil sanctions relief - it doesnt really feel like the US has agreed to it at all. “We’ll give you sanctions relief if you pay the US $1 trillion” -> obviously never happening but i guess technically counts
Like taking it to the extreme, if the deal has some crazy unmeetable condition for oil sanctions relief - it doesnt really feel like the US has agreed to it at all. “We’ll give you sanctions relief if you pay the US $1 trillion” -> obviously never happening but i guess technically counts
Would love some clarity on these. Feel like half the iran deal market is going to get disputed
Would love some clarity on these. Feel like half the iran deal market is going to get disputed
Yeh ok so its not clear i guess
Yeh ok so its not clear i guess
Market pricing crazy on all these in that case
Market pricing crazy on all these in that case
Are you sure 😂
Are you sure 😂
Polymarket