KalshiLike owie...
Like owie...
Four参与话题 27消息总数 2237
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共 2237 条，显示第 601-650 条Is that normal
Is that normal
Combat sports kinda make me wince
Combat sports kinda make me wince
🤓
🤓
I have reported this video for unauthorized reupload of the UFC's copywritten work
I have reported this video for unauthorized reupload of the UFC's copywritten work
Get the waveform analysis going
Get the waveform analysis going
"I'm sorry" "I was wrong" "I made a mistake"
"I'm sorry" "I was wrong" "I made a mistake"
Can we get a trump yearly with covfefe as a strike
Can we get a trump yearly with covfefe as a strike
https://youtu.be/avKs7NXlwNo
https://youtu.be/avKs7NXlwNo
I hear covfefe
I hear covfefe
I replied to it around where the clip was posted
I replied to it around where the clip was posted
Bloodied, battered or bloody and battered
Bloodied, battered or bloody and battered
Check the r2 clip
Check the r2 clip
Which normally I agree with
Which normally I agree with
Y argument also has some elements of "ambiguous cases like this tend to go y"
Y argument also has some elements of "ambiguous cases like this tend to go y"
Doing all this math for an illiquid market when I'm gonna get 300 shares after a month of waiting
Doing all this math for an illiquid market when I'm gonna get 300 shares after a month of waiting
Don't even get me started on TVOM + Confidence adjusted fractional Kelly
Don't even get me started on TVOM + Confidence adjusted fractional Kelly
The virgin "Kelly told me to buy 683 shares" vs the Chad "I'm gonna buy 1000 cause they gotta say it"
The virgin "Kelly told me to buy 683 shares" vs the Chad "I'm gonna buy 1000 cause they gotta say it"
😂
😂
That's not full Kelly then that's confidence adjusted full kelly
That's not full Kelly then that's confidence adjusted full kelly
If MSTR sells Bitcoin in a forest but nobody is around to witness it before the end of the month, did they really sell any?
If MSTR sells Bitcoin in a forest but nobody is around to witness it before the end of the month, did they really sell any?
True
True
I think card counters are the only people I know of who actually full kelly
I think card counters are the only people I know of who actually full kelly
Famously a really easily doable thing in prediction markets
Famously a really easily doable thing in prediction markets
Or like blackjack players
Or like blackjack players
Full Kelly is for psychos
Full Kelly is for psychos
Aka I'm a PU$$Y
Aka I'm a PU$$Y
But it's probably why I don't have 6 figs yet
But it's probably why I don't have 6 figs yet
1/8th confidence adjusted Kelly has never failed me
1/8th confidence adjusted Kelly has never failed me
I sold for a loss when I misbonded draft, I lost 2k still but I could have lost 2.5k
I sold for a loss when I misbonded draft, I lost 2k still but I could have lost 2.5k
😭
😭
Jake is the oracle of mentions
Jake is the oracle of mentions
😂
😂
That would be a really nice hedge
That would be a really nice hedge
I wish poly had a "kalshi insolvent by <date>" market
I wish poly had a "kalshi insolvent by <date>" market
Sell out some while you still can if you think riding the whole position is too much for you, otherwise all you can do is sleep on it
Sell out some while you still can if you think riding the whole position is too much for you, otherwise all you can do is sleep on it
I have Iran nuclear war hedges
I have Iran nuclear war hedges
NHL is over... I got no markets for the rest of the month I gotta start novamaxxing
NHL is over... I got no markets for the rest of the month I gotta start novamaxxing
All it takes is 11 BTC up/downs and for only 1k you can be a millionaire
All it takes is 11 BTC up/downs and for only 1k you can be a millionaire
We need the truth engine to run unfettered
We need the truth engine to run unfettered
Jake better resolve this without getting his mind tainted by chat
Jake better resolve this without getting his mind tainted by chat
I think the other ones clearly being bloodied helps the n side too
I think the other ones clearly being bloodied helps the n side too
In this type of situation
In this type of situation
It really comes down to "what does the person resolving hear"
It really comes down to "what does the person resolving hear"
and then proceed to post that same list of reasons as a meme for the next 3 months
and then proceed to post that same list of reasons as a meme for the next 3 months
We very rarely get a numbered list of reasons
We very rarely get a numbered list of reasons
Resolving these ambiguous strikes is a very opaque process
Resolving these ambiguous strikes is a very opaque process
Maybe?
Maybe?
😂
😂
2nd round puts things at like 50/50 imo
2nd round puts things at like 50/50 imo