PolymarketI've no idea what's going on here
I've no idea what's going on here
aenews参与话题 18消息总数 900
该用户的聊天记录定位。
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共 900 条，显示第 251-300 条the menade or who
the menade or who
by assuming my birthplace, he insulted me, p2
by assuming my birthplace, he insulted me, p2
or well not born there
or well not born there
not from India
not from India
ok
ok
which was the insult
which was the insult
who do you mean
who do you mean
Both sides are reasonable
Both sides are reasonable
jk
jk
26 scammers, 16 righteous warriors for justice
26 scammers, 16 righteous warriors for justice
Kalshi is only relevant when they rule Y
Kalshi is only relevant when they rule Y
Kalshi makes everything N
Kalshi makes everything N
domer every time car pulls a skem
domer every time car pulls a skem
thanks, just dumped appreciate the take
thanks, just dumped appreciate the take
panuc sell
panuc sell
<:copium:1095052293013000215>
<:copium:1095052293013000215>
<:karl:878741003295678504>
<:karl:878741003295678504>
because it's a Y
because it's a Y
😴
😴
🥱
🥱
Will your scam perspective change if they clarify Yes
Will your scam perspective change if they clarify Yes
yeah that came out wrong
yeah that came out wrong
both would be same at that point
both would be same at that point
I'm thinking 40/60 for clarif odds
I'm thinking 40/60 for clarif odds
if pre clarified what do you think fv should be, curious
if pre clarified what do you think fv should be, curious
Do you not think they could clarify either direction?
Do you not think they could clarify either direction?
who are you talking about (steal my money)
who are you talking about (steal my money)
woah, checkmate
woah, checkmate
I don't rlly get why you're so stuck on this scam idea Reality is that both sides have valid points, quite unclear how it'll be clarified
I don't rlly get why you're so stuck on this scam idea Reality is that both sides have valid points, quite unclear how it'll be clarified
hm I see
hm I see
wdym
wdym
nice write up
nice write up
as per Thonker clarification, P4
as per Thonker clarification, P4
I don't think your argument will do well in the uma trenches, but it may do well for Polymarket
I don't think your argument will do well in the uma trenches, but it may do well for Polymarket
clarif maybe 40/60
clarif maybe 40/60
uma will go Y, I think 90% chance
uma will go Y, I think 90% chance
I do tend to think clarification slightly tends to P4
I do tend to think clarification slightly tends to P4
Iranian official is random?
Iranian official is random?
trying to predict clarification phrasing, as per thonker standard
trying to predict clarification phrasing, as per thonker standard
hm yeah maybe
hm yeah maybe
But troops was also open to future negotiations and they counted it. Or is that what you mean by bad.
But troops was also open to future negotiations and they counted it. Or is that what you mean by bad.
What do you think Polymarket will say if they clarify what could the logic for either side be, I wonder
What do you think Polymarket will say if they clarify what could the logic for either side be, I wonder
ah
ah
israel iran I presume
israel iran I presume
Troops had no commitment during negotiations, only a tangential commitment contingent on final deal. Whereas enrichment has an immediate commitment from Iran. If troops qualified, that directionally implies enrichment should as well. By no means a slam dunk, but there's a relationship. If Polymarket considers the bar low to qualify, enrichment should also reach the bar.
Troops had no commitment during negotiations, only a tangential commitment contingent on final deal. Whereas enrichment has an immediate commitment from Iran. If troops qualified, that directionally implies enrichment should as well. By no means a slam dunk, but there's a relationship. If Polymarket considers the bar low to qualify, enrichment should also reach the bar.
? Enrichment crashed as N rose for Troops They are obviously correlated.
? Enrichment crashed as N rose for Troops They are obviously correlated.
My position was zeroed out. I purely hopped in now because I believe it's a No.
My position was zeroed out. I purely hopped in now because I believe it's a No.
in any case, they've already decided, 5 min till decision
in any case, they've already decided, 5 min till decision
Unfreeze is literally one of the immediate on MOU clauses, this is not a good counter
Unfreeze is literally one of the immediate on MOU clauses, this is not a good counter