KalshiI've only been in that courtyard a couple times
I've only been in that courtyard a couple times
Mitchieboi参与话题 45消息总数 4379
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共 4379 条，显示第 601-650 条Oh it's back behind alyx
Oh it's back behind alyx
I've never seen that place
I've never seen that place
Where tf is that
Where tf is that
On an unrelated note, any drum players here?
On an unrelated note, any drum players here?
And obviously there's correlated failures between strikes as a result of ET, so gotta keep that in mind
And obviously there's correlated failures between strikes as a result of ET, so gotta keep that in mind
It's just so unlikely to spin such a bad outcome that if you size to it, you're not sizing big enough the other 99% of the time
It's just so unlikely to spin such a bad outcome that if you size to it, you're not sizing big enough the other 99% of the time
And there's only a few that were even more than 5%
And there's only a few that were even more than 5%
This is the first time I've ever had a loss bigger than 10%
This is the first time I've ever had a loss bigger than 10%
I've done 170 sports markets with similar risk management
I've done 170 sports markets with similar risk management
I regularly size 30-40% into single sports markets
I regularly size 30-40% into single sports markets
Live by the sword die by the sword
Live by the sword die by the sword
Hair under
Hair under
25%
25%
So your theoretical max loss can be bigger than what you're "comfortable" losing imo
So your theoretical max loss can be bigger than what you're "comfortable" losing imo
Part of that is that the actual black swan of having every N you own flip is so extremely small
Part of that is that the actual black swan of having every N you own flip is so extremely small
But I didn't feel the need to for exposure reasons
But I didn't feel the need to for exposure reasons
So there is standalone value in hedging that actual ET delta
So there is standalone value in hedging that actual ET delta
And it's different than the main market
And it's different than the main market
There's an implied ET price
There's an implied ET price
On mentions
On mentions
Because you're effectively shorting ET by buying N
Because you're effectively shorting ET by buying N
I think the hedge has merit
I think the hedge has merit
Yeah
Yeah
Like obviously if I had known a 30k loss was in the cards I wouldn't have
Like obviously if I had known a 30k loss was in the cards I wouldn't have
It didn't
It didn't
He's out till mid August
He's out till mid August
But yeah hedging was an option I considered
But yeah hedging was an option I considered
Live by the sword die by the sword
Live by the sword die by the sword
So I didn't bother
So I didn't bother
It would've eaten all my profit from a non ET outcome to hedge it anyway
It would've eaten all my profit from a non ET outcome to hedge it anyway
But I didn't
But I didn't
I considered doing this once it went under 15
I considered doing this once it went under 15
And ET was very unlikely to begin with
And ET was very unlikely to begin with
If that
If that
Even assuming ET my EV was probably only like -5k
Even assuming ET my EV was probably only like -5k
And then obviously poor variance within ET
And then obviously poor variance within ET
Game stage baiting me into going larger
Game stage baiting me into going larger
So it's a combo of market pricings
So it's a combo of market pricings
This was a very heavy N game for me
This was a very heavy N game for me
I taker and maker both sides plenty
I taker and maker both sides plenty
Yes
Yes
I do many things
I do many things
Yes
Yes
Even the "safe" ones like bicycle
Even the "safe" ones like bicycle
Flipped in ET
Flipped in ET
That were itm
That were itm
Like 35k contracts
Like 35k contracts
Hit in ET
Hit in ET
Literally every N I had but one
Literally every N I had but one