Kalshithe only interesting market for me is the pratt vote total
the only interesting market for me is the pratt vote total
Mitchieboi参与话题 50消息总数 4615
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 4615 条，显示第 4051-4100 条nithya 3
nithya 3
it'll be bass pratt
it'll be bass pratt
the shy rae vote
the shy rae vote
but I think base case at this point is bass 1, pratt 2, nithya 3
but I think base case at this point is bass 1, pratt 2, nithya 3
nobody is on pratt to actually become mayor
nobody is on pratt to actually become mayor
this will be content
this will be content
pmt?
pmt?
nithya is cooked
nithya is cooked
it'll be pratt bass round 2
it'll be pratt bass round 2
and accept small steelers %
and accept small steelers %
i'd pair trade short ravens long bengals prob
i'd pair trade short ravens long bengals prob
<@290250434893840386> thoughts on bengals AFCN winner @ 35
<@290250434893840386> thoughts on bengals AFCN winner @ 35
I miss football
I miss football
I just enjoy talking football
I just enjoy talking football
like rams/steelers would probably be 75/25
like rams/steelers would probably be 75/25
it'd have to be like patriots/giants tier
it'd have to be like patriots/giants tier
tough to have a SB matchup be further apart than 65/35 imo
tough to have a SB matchup be further apart than 65/35 imo
eh, I'd short the 70% implied
eh, I'd short the 70% implied
17% for rams to have best regular season record
17% for rams to have best regular season record
so 18% would imply a 70% chance of winning vs arbitrary AFC team in SB
so 18% would imply a 70% chance of winning vs arbitrary AFC team in SB
rams are priced at 26% to win nfc rn btw
rams are priced at 26% to win nfc rn btw
they're probably like 30% if I had to guess
they're probably like 30% if I had to guess
they're in a good division, 1 seed is far from guaranteed
they're in a good division, 1 seed is far from guaranteed
but you have to price in injury risk, seeding, etc
but you have to price in injury risk, seeding, etc
this is correct
this is correct
probably 25%
probably 25%
you also have to factor in stafford injury risk
you also have to factor in stafford injury risk
I think 11-15 is reasonable from garrett pickup on an already good team
I think 11-15 is reasonable from garrett pickup on an already good team
https://tenor.com/view/benjammins-can-i-have-a-crumb-of-context-can-i-have-context-context-context-meme-gif-8231158506088097553
https://tenor.com/view/benjammins-can-i-have-a-crumb-of-context-can-i-have-context-context-context-meme-gif-8231158506088097553
?
?
50% one seed with 75% individual game odds and 65% individual game odds when they don't get 1 seed yields 0.3
50% one seed with 75% individual game odds and 65% individual game odds when they don't get 1 seed yields 0.3
I take it back, 30 is the ceiling
I take it back, 30 is the ceiling
yeah
yeah
are not >50%
are not >50%
i'm saying the odds of rams to get 1 seed
i'm saying the odds of rams to get 1 seed
yea
yea
if they get to playoffs as 1 seed and healthy, agreed
if they get to playoffs as 1 seed and healthy, agreed
but there's too much variance in football for those to ever be accurate
but there's too much variance in football for those to ever be accurate
for an absolute god team
for an absolute god team
is a theoretical max
is a theoretical max
so maybe more like 30
so maybe more like 30
and if they don't get 1 seed, say they're 65% favored in the 4 playoff games
and if they don't get 1 seed, say they're 65% favored in the 4 playoff games
say they're 50% to get one seed and 75% favored in all three playoff games they'd have to win. 0.5x0.75^3 = 0.21
say they're 50% to get one seed and 75% favored in all three playoff games they'd have to win. 0.5x0.75^3 = 0.21
say you have an insane known super team
say you have an insane known super team
what is absolutely crushing
what is absolutely crushing
like
like
myles garrett doesn't push rams to the theoretical maximum
myles garrett doesn't push rams to the theoretical maximum
it's basically impossible for any team to exceed 20% SB odds
it's basically impossible for any team to exceed 20% SB odds
too much variance in football
too much variance in football