nh1240参与话题 3消息总数 68

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:16:27 ↗ Kalshi

nytimes had 63.14% this morning, then changed to 60% without adding any new votes

nytimes had 63.14% this morning, then changed to 60% without adding any new votes

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:16:13 ↗ Kalshi

and i think they're still too low

and i think they're still too low

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:16:07 ↗ Kalshi

fwiw nytimes and ddhq both upped their estimates earlier today

fwiw nytimes and ddhq both upped their estimates earlier today

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:15:37 ↗ Kalshi

well concrete is stretching it - a better estimate than any news agency can give is a better description

well concrete is stretching it - a better estimate than any news agency can give is a better description

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:15:12 ↗ Kalshi

will prob get those soon

will prob get those soon

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:15:08 ↗ Kalshi

there isn't concrete numbers from the county yet

there isn't concrete numbers from the county yet

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:14:33 ↗ Kalshi

nytimes went from 60 -> 63.47%

nytimes went from 60 -> 63.47%

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:13:27 ↗ Kalshi

28718 votes

28718 votes

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:13:24 ↗ Kalshi

8961 raman 5967 pratt

8961 raman 5967 pratt

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:12:31 ↗ Kalshi

ideas will probably be calling fraud still

ideas will probably be calling fraud still

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:12:00 ↗ Kalshi

alright now they're in

alright now they're in

nh1240 2026-06-04 07:07:43 ↗ Kalshi

oops i was false alarmed

oops i was false alarmed

nh1240 2026-06-04 06:59:09 ↗ Kalshi

i was happy to buy raman advance and raman win since they were both +ev

i was happy to buy raman advance and raman win since they were both +ev

nh1240 2026-06-04 06:58:34 ↗ Kalshi

yeah the pricing was definitely a bit off on those markets relatively i think

yeah the pricing was definitely a bit off on those markets relatively i think

nh1240 2026-06-04 06:55:17 ↗ Kalshi

don't really care to minmax main market and correlated markets though

don't really care to minmax main market and correlated markets though

nh1240 2026-06-04 06:54:56 ↗ Kalshi

my median is prob like 30 though

my median is prob like 30 though

nh1240 2026-06-04 06:54:29 ↗ Kalshi

prob a bit conditional on the final margin, granted i don't think there is too much variance there

prob a bit conditional on the final margin, granted i don't think there is too much variance there

nh1240 2026-06-04 02:59:52 ↗ Kalshi

i woke up

i woke up