Polymarketyeah, fixing the classification rn. will be a lot more accurate soon, will recheck against your account then..
yeah, fixing the classification rn. will be a lot more accurate soon, will recheck against your account then..
akkideutscher | gravia.trade参与话题 3消息总数 127
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共 127 条，显示第 101-127 条lol, maybe if we sort by PnL in the reverse order. folks would be keen to see a 10k loss :p
lol, maybe if we sort by PnL in the reverse order. folks would be keen to see a 10k loss :p
haha, I see where this came from :p but yeah, working on finding related wallets based on strategy and heuristics like funding source, amount, strategy
haha, I see where this came from :p but yeah, working on finding related wallets based on strategy and heuristics like funding source, amount, strategy
Got curious and pulled up leaderboard for the market, you are the very top 🚀 Ignore the bot/human classification, improving it atm.
Got curious and pulled up leaderboard for the market, you are the very top 🚀 Ignore the bot/human classification, improving it atm.
will be available within the next 1-2 days, trying to take it live ASAP. optimising for response time because really complicated analytics taking a little long atm.
will be available within the next 1-2 days, trying to take it live ASAP. optimising for response time because really complicated analytics taking a little long atm.
Does anyone have a list of manipulated markets handy? I am curious to pull up leaderboard for who made the most money in those
Does anyone have a list of manipulated markets handy? I am curious to pull up leaderboard for who made the most money in those
Here's the leaderboard (sorted by PnL) from the past five BTC 5-min markets. Data only includes traders with > 80% of their volume as makers in these markets. PnL doesn't include maker rebates though (because it's with a 1-day delay atm). All the stats are from their trades within the recent 5 markets.
Here's the leaderboard (sorted by PnL) from the past five BTC 5-min markets. Data only includes traders with > 80% of their volume as makers in these markets. PnL doesn't include maker rebates though (because it's with a 1-day delay atm). All the stats are from their trades within the recent 5 markets.
would be against poly's TOS but possible - the router wallet buys and transfers shares to the actual buyer. the issue is Poly still attributes PnL to the actual wallet that bought them irrespective of who redeems those shares. hence the PnL won't show up. Gate.io does something similar though, routes all user trades from a single account which is Obsidian tier (0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6)
would be against poly's TOS but possible - the router wallet buys and transfers shares to the actual buyer. the issue is Poly still attributes PnL to the actual wallet that bought them irrespective of who redeems those shares. hence the PnL won't show up. Gate.io does something similar though, routes all user trades from a single account which is Obsidian tier (0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6)
<@366206939224604673> <@1507840358485069987> neither, it was slop some accounts on X created out of thin air! our team was equally amused and shocked. we clarified in a tweet last month of it being an inaccurate claim.
<@366206939224604673> <@1507840358485069987> neither, it was slop some accounts on X created out of thin air! our team was equally amused and shocked. we clarified in a tweet last month of it being an inaccurate claim.
that's true! crypto is the largest category by fees. also probably the one with highest concentration of profits within a smaller cohort.
that's true! crypto is the largest category by fees. also probably the one with highest concentration of profits within a smaller cohort.
tbh, new user growth is highly episodic and non-linear. it's about when the next massive spike happens 👀
tbh, new user growth is highly episodic and non-linear. it's about when the next massive spike happens 👀
Ah, the coinbase/binance price lines must be messing it up
Ah, the coinbase/binance price lines must be messing it up
The last one was a big UP move though, probably why it's still starting off at 50/50
The last one was a big UP move though, probably why it's still starting off at 50/50
Got curious and pulled up weekly new Polymarket wallets based on first-trade timestamps. Not neccessarily unique users in absolute terms because existing traders would be creating new wallets. The last week is incomplete data (week hasn't ended yet!).
Got curious and pulled up weekly new Polymarket wallets based on first-trade timestamps. Not neccessarily unique users in absolute terms because existing traders would be creating new wallets. The last week is incomplete data (week hasn't ended yet!).
yes, it only includes 99c average positions, but win rate is calculated basis outcome of all these trades. Suppose someone bought 99c across 100 orders. They sold at 100c (profitable) 90% of the times and at less than 99c (loss-making trade) the remaining 10%, their win rate would show up as 90%. this WR could be improved by weighing it based on the trade size. for instance, one could have a 99.5% win rate but could still be at a loss because they have multiple small wins and a big loss. will iterate on this.
yes, it only includes 99c average positions, but win rate is calculated basis outcome of all these trades. Suppose someone bought 99c across 100 orders. They sold at 100c (profitable) 90% of the times and at less than 99c (loss-making trade) the remaining 10%, their win rate would show up as 90%. this WR could be improved by weighing it based on the trade size. for instance, one could have a 99.5% win rate but could still be at a loss because they have multiple small wins and a big loss. will iterate on this.
yes, and they would also sell at a loss at 94,95,96 and so on. so the winrate effectively decreases. if they only sold at 0 or 100, then the win rate has to be 99%+ for 0.99c to be profitable.
yes, and they would also sell at a loss at 94,95,96 and so on. so the winrate effectively decreases. if they only sold at 0 or 100, then the win rate has to be 99%+ for 0.99c to be profitable.
we classify it based on: # of orders per market, # of markets traded per day, time spread they are active daily. trades are deduped with order hash. so if a limit order shows up as 5 different trades, we would count them as one instead. it's not perfect, but fairly accurate. still iterating.
we classify it based on: # of orders per market, # of markets traded per day, time spread they are active daily. trades are deduped with order hash. so if a limit order shows up as 5 different trades, we would count them as one instead. it's not perfect, but fairly accurate. still iterating.
yes, have improvised the human/bot model and it has been fairly accurate lately. still iterating.
yes, have improvised the human/bot model and it has been fairly accurate lately. still iterating.
yeah, MM's would typically be modelling risk well already and could take directional bets at 0.99 but I have typically seen wallets solely focused on 0.99+ buys, like most wallets in the above list
yeah, MM's would typically be modelling risk well already and could take directional bets at 0.99 but I have typically seen wallets solely focused on 0.99+ buys, like most wallets in the above list
Yeah, but this one was buying most positions post market end. Like almost all of them. Unsure if it's still doing it. We will be sharing a lot of such wallets once the discovery tool with nuanced filters is live.
Yeah, but this one was buying most positions post market end. Like almost all of them. Unsure if it's still doing it. We will be sharing a lot of such wallets once the discovery tool with nuanced filters is live.
def not easy to do, requires crazy risk management. else one position going to 0 will wipe out all gains. if you look at the maker %, some of them are just buying 0.99 via limit orders, a good proportion of which might be getting filled post market ending and prior to on-chain res.
def not easy to do, requires crazy risk management. else one position going to 0 will wipe out all gains. if you look at the maker %, some of them are just buying 0.99 via limit orders, a good proportion of which might be getting filled post market ending and prior to on-chain res.
because they sell before it goes to 0, that's the strategy. bonereaper's biggest bucket is also 0.9+ trades.
because they sell before it goes to 0, that's the strategy. bonereaper's biggest bucket is also 0.9+ trades.
it's from the subset of trades too, any positive trade is a win. isn't the best way to look at it, iterating on it atm.
it's from the subset of trades too, any positive trade is a win. isn't the best way to look at it, iterating on it atm.
releasing within a few days, if you happen to have any nuanced queries, can share data from the dev build atm
releasing within a few days, if you happen to have any nuanced queries, can share data from the dev build atm
*Filters Applied* Categories: Crypto Up/Down Date Range: Last 7D Trades Considered: >=0.99 So this filters all 0.99+ trades from all the Poly wallets and shows aggregated metrics for above subset of data. Top trader generated $17.6k only from 0.99+ buys.
*Filters Applied* Categories: Crypto Up/Down Date Range: Last 7D Trades Considered: >=0.99 So this filters all 0.99+ trades from all the Poly wallets and shows aggregated metrics for above subset of data. Top trader generated $17.6k only from 0.99+ buys.
There are a bunch of folks doing this, consistently and +EV
There are a bunch of folks doing this, consistently and +EV
Here's the taker tier distributions based on wV if interested. We pull live tier for all users basis 30-day trades. This data is slightly old, can pull it up for your wallet if needed.
Here's the taker tier distributions based on wV if interested. We pull live tier for all users basis 30-day trades. This data is slightly old, can pull it up for your wallet if needed.
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