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jack 2026-06-17 03:55:43 Polymarket

there are two contracts in this case

there are two contracts in this case

jack 2026-06-17 03:55:36 Polymarket

youre oversimplifying it

youre oversimplifying it

jack 2026-06-17 03:55:06 Polymarket

completely different. it would be more like; i *will* agree to go to work tomorrow when i have signed my official contract, which i haven't yet, and still need to discuss with my boss, contingent on pay.

completely different. it would be more like; i *will* agree to go to work tomorrow when i have signed my official contract, which i haven't yet, and still need to discuss with my boss, contingent on pay.

jack 2026-06-17 03:53:36 Polymarket

are you saying that the MOU itself dictates terms regarding troop withdrawl?

are you saying that the MOU itself dictates terms regarding troop withdrawl?

jack 2026-06-17 03:52:47 Polymarket

correct, i agree. but the MOU itself does not have a conditional clause regarding troop withdrawl, it pushes that back to a *seperate* agreement in the near future that THEN outlines a conditional clause regarding troop withdrawl. am i wrong?

correct, i agree. but the MOU itself does not have a conditional clause regarding troop withdrawl, it pushes that back to a *seperate* agreement in the near future that THEN outlines a conditional clause regarding troop withdrawl. am i wrong?

jack 2026-06-17 03:51:31 Polymarket

the MOU itself does not dictate whatsoever that the US will withdraw troops.

the MOU itself does not dictate whatsoever that the US will withdraw troops.

jack 2026-06-17 03:51:12 Polymarket

correct, but this one is a SEPERATE deal than the MOU.

correct, but this one is a SEPERATE deal than the MOU.

jack 2026-06-17 03:50:17 Polymarket

if im like "hey man lets talk for a few hours, and if the talks go right, i'll give you an apple" i am not agreeing to give him an apple pre-discussion

if im like "hey man lets talk for a few hours, and if the talks go right, i'll give you an apple" i am not agreeing to give him an apple pre-discussion

jack 2026-06-17 03:49:20 Polymarket

which will be discussed in the next 60 days and has not been agreed upon yet

which will be discussed in the next 60 days and has not been agreed upon yet

jack 2026-06-17 03:47:34 Polymarket

The US hasn't definitively agreed to withdraw troops though; what they HAVE agreed to do is discuss a framework within the next 60 days that, if agreed upon, will involve troop withdrawl

The US hasn't definitively agreed to withdraw troops though; what they HAVE agreed to do is discuss a framework within the next 60 days that, if agreed upon, will involve troop withdrawl

jack 2026-06-17 03:45:16 Polymarket

he *will* agree to do x when they do y

he *will* agree to do x when they do y

jack 2026-06-17 03:44:38 Polymarket

are you thinking that when the MOU is signed, that is a 1:1 with trump agreeing to withdraw troops?

are you thinking that when the MOU is signed, that is a 1:1 with trump agreeing to withdraw troops?

jack 2026-06-17 03:44:00 Polymarket

wdym

wdym

jack 2026-06-17 03:43:28 Polymarket

if this went Yes, how is it different than the blockade market? the blockade being lifted we *KNEW* was in the MOU. essentially; the blockade *wouldve* been lifted if the MOU is agreed upon? (this is why blockade wasn't resolvable before trump announced. when we KNEW that the MOU would include trump agreeing to blocakde removal, since nothing has been SIGNED or AGREED UPON yet) here... we KNOW (if leaks r right) that the MOU will have language inlcuding trump agreeing to withdraw troops IF the final agreement is passed.

if this went Yes, how is it different than the blockade market? the blockade being lifted we *KNEW* was in the MOU. essentially; the blockade *wouldve* been lifted if the MOU is agreed upon? (this is why blockade wasn't resolvable before trump announced. when we KNEW that the MOU would include trump agreeing to blocakde removal, since nothing has been SIGNED or AGREED UPON yet) here... we KNOW (if leaks r right) that the MOU will have language inlcuding trump agreeing to withdraw troops IF the final agreement is passed.

jack 2026-06-17 03:40:37 Polymarket

first of all the MOU is leaked so we dont know if the wording is fully accurate, but second of all, saying that trump agreed to withdraw troops is inherently inaccurate because trump *will * agree to withdraw troops *if *the final deal is passed, so therefore it isn't resolvable for Y if the MOU is published with that text from arabiya it's something they *plan *to discuss and *hope to agree upon*, hence why it's pushed to the final agreement and isn't explicitly shown that US will withdrawl troops within the MOU's text itself

first of all the MOU is leaked so we dont know if the wording is fully accurate, but second of all, saying that trump agreed to withdraw troops is inherently inaccurate because trump *will * agree to withdraw troops *if *the final deal is passed, so therefore it isn't resolvable for Y if the MOU is published with that text from arabiya it's something they *plan *to discuss and *hope to agree upon*, hence why it's pushed to the final agreement and isn't explicitly shown that US will withdrawl troops within the MOU's text itself

jack 2026-06-17 03:38:22 Polymarket

its refreshing to actually be able to talk abt disputes with ppl in poly review instead of just calling ppl retarded / getting called retarded

its refreshing to actually be able to talk abt disputes with ppl in poly review instead of just calling ppl retarded / getting called retarded

jack 2026-06-17 03:37:55 Polymarket

yeah for sure

yeah for sure

jack 2026-06-17 03:36:00 Polymarket

so youre saying that trump *will* agree to withdraw troops *if* the final deal is passed? similarly, the blockade *wouldve* been lifted *if* the MOU is agreed upon? (this is why blockade wasn't resolvable before trump announced. when we KNEW that the MOU would include trump agreeing to blocakde removal, since nothing has been SIGNED or AGREED UPON yet) does that make sense?

so youre saying that trump *will* agree to withdraw troops *if* the final deal is passed? similarly, the blockade *wouldve* been lifted *if* the MOU is agreed upon? (this is why blockade wasn't resolvable before trump announced. when we KNEW that the MOU would include trump agreeing to blocakde removal, since nothing has been SIGNED or AGREED UPON yet) does that make sense?

jack 2026-06-17 03:34:17 Polymarket

has trump agreed to withdraw troops yet do you think y or n (if MOU is published)

has trump agreed to withdraw troops yet do you think y or n (if MOU is published)

jack 2026-06-17 03:33:56 Polymarket

yes, thus, trump has not agreed to withdraw troops yet

yes, thus, trump has not agreed to withdraw troops yet

jack 2026-06-17 03:33:17 Polymarket

thats definitely non-definitive

thats definitely non-definitive

jack 2026-06-17 03:33:04 Polymarket

that is not a committment to withdrawl troops though

that is not a committment to withdrawl troops though

jack 2026-06-17 03:32:24 Polymarket

the final agreement is something they plan to discuss within 30 days

the final agreement is something they plan to discuss within 30 days

jack 2026-06-17 03:32:14 Polymarket

the final agreement is not the MOU

the final agreement is not the MOU

jack 2026-06-17 03:31:41 Polymarket

well no, thats different because both governments have agreed to halt hostilities, US hasn't agreed to withdraw troops yet

well no, thats different because both governments have agreed to halt hostilities, US hasn't agreed to withdraw troops yet

jack 2026-06-17 03:30:42 Polymarket

wdym?

wdym?

jack 2026-06-17 03:30:12 Polymarket

not really, it's something they plan to discuss and *hope* to agree upon, hence why it's pushed to the final agreement and isn't explicitly shown that US will withdrawl troops within the MOU's text itself

not really, it's something they plan to discuss and *hope* to agree upon, hence why it's pushed to the final agreement and isn't explicitly shown that US will withdrawl troops within the MOU's text itself

jack 2026-06-17 03:29:17 Polymarket

the MOU outlines that when a final agreement (seperate document than the MOU) troops will be withdrawn within 30 days. the MOU itself doesn't dictate that troop withdrawl will occur / is agreed upon.

the MOU outlines that when a final agreement (seperate document than the MOU) troops will be withdrawn within 30 days. the MOU itself doesn't dictate that troop withdrawl will occur / is agreed upon.

jack 2026-06-17 03:28:37 Polymarket

which deal, the MOU?

which deal, the MOU?

jack 2026-06-17 03:26:20 Polymarket

i sold out of my yes but i had like 20k

i sold out of my yes but i had like 20k

jack 2026-06-17 03:26:05 Polymarket

why?

why?

jack 2026-06-17 03:25:15 Polymarket

where was this again?

where was this again?

jack 2026-06-17 03:25:00 Polymarket

i wish there were some Y heads in here, i'm curious if i'm reading this wrong.

i wish there were some Y heads in here, i'm curious if i'm reading this wrong.

jack 2026-06-17 03:24:05 Polymarket

but no one questioned that. not sure how this is different; no agreement has been made and no agreement will be made to withdrawl troops until the final agreement is signed

but no one questioned that. not sure how this is different; no agreement has been made and no agreement will be made to withdrawl troops until the final agreement is signed

jack 2026-06-17 03:23:20 Polymarket

We literally just went through this with the blockade market. Everyone knew the MOU contained language about lifting the blockade, but it didn't resolve Yes before the MOU was agreed upon because well, at that point, nothnig was agreed upon.

We literally just went through this with the blockade market. Everyone knew the MOU contained language about lifting the blockade, but it didn't resolve Yes before the MOU was agreed upon because well, at that point, nothnig was agreed upon.

jack 2026-06-17 03:21:44 Polymarket

yeah thats the same thing pretty much, still not enough for Y because no final agreement has been made

yeah thats the same thing pretty much, still not enough for Y because no final agreement has been made

jack 2026-06-17 03:20:53 Polymarket

is there a different line i'm missing

is there a different line i'm missing

jack 2026-06-17 03:20:17 Polymarket

i believe theyre referring to : Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. *The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas **within 30 days after the final agreement**.* there has been no final agreement yet, and at the point in time when the MOU is signed, there *still* wont be any committment or agreement to troop withdrawl.

i believe theyre referring to : Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. *The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas **within 30 days after the final agreement**.* there has been no final agreement yet, and at the point in time when the MOU is signed, there *still* wont be any committment or agreement to troop withdrawl.

jack 2026-06-17 03:14:40 Polymarket

im not really sure about this price. i am newish to poly and only have like 40kpnl on poly but this just kinda seems like a weird hill to die on when i feel the argument for Y can be so easily disproven

im not really sure about this price. i am newish to poly and only have like 40kpnl on poly but this just kinda seems like a weird hill to die on when i feel the argument for Y can be so easily disproven

jack 2026-06-17 03:13:38 Polymarket

yes its just the al arabiya, but the barak article from n12 is even more bearish for troop withdrawl Y

yes its just the al arabiya, but the barak article from n12 is even more bearish for troop withdrawl Y

jack 2026-06-17 02:56:41 Polymarket

Yes, it says > The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Apparently***

Yes, it says > The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Apparently***

jack 2026-06-17 02:56:00 Polymarket

Well so far based off the leaks it isn’t

Well so far based off the leaks it isn’t

jack 2026-06-17 02:55:48 Polymarket

Nothing is committed upon if nothing is signed yet, they are outlining that they WILL commit to withdraw troops IF the final agreement is signed

Nothing is committed upon if nothing is signed yet, they are outlining that they WILL commit to withdraw troops IF the final agreement is signed

jack 2026-06-17 02:54:39 Polymarket

This chat sucks bro

This chat sucks bro

jack 2026-06-17 02:53:29 Polymarket

When it’s in the final agreement it’s a yes, agree. That is a separate document than the MOU. If the MOU leak is correct, and it dictates that the final agreement will include troop withdrawal, the MOU being singed therefore is not enough to resolve Y.

When it’s in the final agreement it’s a yes, agree. That is a separate document than the MOU. If the MOU leak is correct, and it dictates that the final agreement will include troop withdrawal, the MOU being singed therefore is not enough to resolve Y.

jack 2026-06-17 02:51:30 Polymarket

How so? The leaked mou says that troop withdrawal will be done after signing on the final agreement. A similar example: a few weeks ago we all knew that the MOU had language of the blockade lifting, but it didn’t resolve yes because nothing was signed yet, therefore, nothing was agreed upon. Here, we know that the final agreement (NOT mou) will have language dictating that troops will withdraw, but it has not been signed yet, therefore nothing has been agreed upon yet. Am I wrong?

How so? The leaked mou says that troop withdrawal will be done after signing on the final agreement. A similar example: a few weeks ago we all knew that the MOU had language of the blockade lifting, but it didn’t resolve yes because nothing was signed yet, therefore, nothing was agreed upon. Here, we know that the final agreement (NOT mou) will have language dictating that troops will withdraw, but it has not been signed yet, therefore nothing has been agreed upon yet. Am I wrong?

jack 2026-06-17 02:48:19 Polymarket

Someone tldr me

Someone tldr me

jack 2026-06-17 02:48:10 Polymarket

Troop withdrawal is not yes, are people buying expecting the final agreement to be signed before June 30th? Or do they think that the fact that troop withdrawal is in the *next* agreement is enough for yes?

Troop withdrawal is not yes, are people buying expecting the final agreement to be signed before June 30th? Or do they think that the fact that troop withdrawal is in the *next* agreement is enough for yes?

jack 2026-06-16 15:59:31 Polymarket

# bro said bro said bro said bro said bro said goy island <@1319754532393062425>

# bro said bro said bro said bro said bro said goy island <@1319754532393062425>

jack 2026-06-16 15:57:41 Polymarket

bros in a dm with denizz rn called <#817444472009785366> <:ICANT:1306491472417263636>

bros in a dm with denizz rn called <#817444472009785366> <:ICANT:1306491472417263636>

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