KalshiThat’s what makes it gooood
That’s what makes it gooood
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共 735 条，显示第 351-400 条Maybe a hot take that ppl won’t like but low key I’d like a Yellow card 10+ times tbh, might be priced low but is very realistic to hit in some instances
Maybe a hot take that ppl won’t like but low key I’d like a Yellow card 10+ times tbh, might be priced low but is very realistic to hit in some instances
If you want it to be competitive at least
If you want it to be competitive at least
Yeah
Yeah
3+ at least imo
3+ at least imo
This is the cycle of mentions strikes
This is the cycle of mentions strikes
Swap out all No bonds with Yes bonds 🔥
Swap out all No bonds with Yes bonds 🔥
Don’t let people hold you back from reaching your true gambling potential
Don’t let people hold you back from reaching your true gambling potential
He just needs to keep gambling
He just needs to keep gambling
I see jkramer’s potential
I see jkramer’s potential
And people are offering good prices
And people are offering good prices
It’s so dumb but like it actually is so free
It’s so dumb but like it actually is so free
Crazy
Crazy
Hoping it goes your way I’d be scared having that much on this
Hoping it goes your way I’d be scared having that much on this
You know that’s a lotta money I gotta respect it
You know that’s a lotta money I gotta respect it
$10k on bloody ufc
$10k on bloody ufc
Brian the caddy
Brian the caddy
This what the resolutions team gonna listen to right before they vibes resolve
This what the resolutions team gonna listen to right before they vibes resolve
I think it’s gotta be the CC that is the reason
I think it’s gotta be the CC that is the reason
Hard to discern should favor Y is the thing that’s why I’m a bit surprised ppl are willing to pay so much more than usual on No here
Hard to discern should favor Y is the thing that’s why I’m a bit surprised ppl are willing to pay so much more than usual on No here
Kelly will be like "you have a 10% edge on something at 85%? It couldn't be possible that your estimate is wrong plow 42% of your port into this shit"
Kelly will be like "you have a 10% edge on something at 85%? It couldn't be possible that your estimate is wrong plow 42% of your port into this shit"
Yeah kelly seems not great to me but idk
Yeah kelly seems not great to me but idk
I highly doubt this is true lol
I highly doubt this is true lol
Like even if the odds are 0.0000000001% I'm not gonna go like 25%+ of my port personally but to each their own
Like even if the odds are 0.0000000001% I'm not gonna go like 25%+ of my port personally but to each their own
Yeah that's fair, it's just stuff like that that keeps me from risking like, potentially port blowing levels of sizing
Yeah that's fair, it's just stuff like that that keeps me from risking like, potentially port blowing levels of sizing
The guy that clicks the resolve button
The guy that clicks the resolve button
Trust
Trust
DM jake telling him if he resolves No you lose everything and your car gets reposessed and you lose the house and everything so he feels bad and resolves Y
DM jake telling him if he resolves No you lose everything and your car gets reposessed and you lose the house and everything so he feels bad and resolves Y
At least in my mind they are
At least in my mind they are
Yeah those are things to factor in as well
Yeah those are things to factor in as well
Lmaooo well I think that's fine as long as the bonds are spread out and not highly correlated
Lmaooo well I think that's fine as long as the bonds are spread out and not highly correlated
Wise words
Wise words
There's always some non-zero chance that something goes against you if you go out enough decimal places even if it's 100% gauraunteed at face value
There's always some non-zero chance that something goes against you if you go out enough decimal places even if it's 100% gauraunteed at face value
In a single position or highly correlated positions that is
In a single position or highly correlated positions that is
I wouldn't recommend more than 20% even if it's completely 100% free money as free as free money gets on paper imo
I wouldn't recommend more than 20% even if it's completely 100% free money as free as free money gets on paper imo
They wouldn't know what it's trading off of if they didn't read the chat at least a little bit
They wouldn't know what it's trading off of if they didn't read the chat at least a little bit
Every resolution is tainted by chat we just have to accept
Every resolution is tainted by chat we just have to accept
IMO
IMO
20% of your portfolio max max
20% of your portfolio max max
Don't put life impacting money on degenerate gambling if this goes Yes promise yourself this is your last time
Don't put life impacting money on degenerate gambling if this goes Yes promise yourself this is your last time
You need to risk manage dude
You need to risk manage dude
Ok this is a problem lol
Ok this is a problem lol
I feel like this would be trading like 80%+ if cc wasn't what it is
I feel like this would be trading like 80%+ if cc wasn't what it is
I think it might explain in part why this is trading lower though
I think it might explain in part why this is trading lower though
They don't really put weight on that stuff as far as I'm aware from what I've heard them say in the past but maybe they do a little bit it's hard to know cause these rulescuck resolutions are discussed in private
They don't really put weight on that stuff as far as I'm aware from what I've heard them say in the past but maybe they do a little bit it's hard to know cause these rulescuck resolutions are discussed in private
Not really but maybe a little bit
Not really but maybe a little bit
2nd round makes this go Y imo
2nd round makes this go Y imo
imo
imo
The first round very -EV though
The first round very -EV though
I think you're probably gonna be ok but we'll see
I think you're probably gonna be ok but we'll see