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https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/21/alberta-separation-referendum-00933323 Politico characterizes it a bit differently than most outlets if any P4 people wanna use that
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/21/alberta-separation-referendum-00933323 Politico characterizes it a bit differently than most outlets if any P4 people wanna use that
<@964957804324597832> Your post was pretty good
<@964957804324597832> Your post was pretty good
Spirit of the market honestly leans toward the latter
Spirit of the market honestly leans toward the latter
Concerning could mean anything remotely related to, even tangentially It could also mean directly about
Concerning could mean anything remotely related to, even tangentially It could also mean directly about
<@952241341029556254>
<@952241341029556254>
This reminds me of when I tried to use an Epstein file file to resolve an Epstein file market and got clarified against.
This reminds me of when I tried to use an Epstein file file to resolve an Epstein file market and got clarified against.
Based
Based
Too much text, he had to send it as a .txt file lol
Too much text, he had to send it as a .txt file lol
I dare say it most likely does just go to UMA
I dare say it most likely does just go to UMA
So there's a very good chance this goes to UMA
So there's a very good chance this goes to UMA
Though they only have about 13 hours to clarify — that ought to be enough, but sometimes they take days to do so
Though they only have about 13 hours to clarify — that ought to be enough, but sometimes they take days to do so
If it were guaranteed not getting clarified then it might be worth it at this price
If it were guaranteed not getting clarified then it might be worth it at this price
This is the type of thing that's too complicated, UMA will just P2 it But there's a solid chance it goes P4 if it gets clarified
This is the type of thing that's too complicated, UMA will just P2 it But there's a solid chance it goes P4 if it gets clarified
I hate the condescension
I hate the condescension
Everyone here is acting like this is some super obvious fake dispute and it's absolutely not lmao
Everyone here is acting like this is some super obvious fake dispute and it's absolutely not lmao
I don't think I want a Bel clarification
I don't think I want a Bel clarification
Bosaurum is a smart guy
Bosaurum is a smart guy
I hope that guy just makes the stupid crypto markets
I hope that guy just makes the stupid crypto markets
The pfp scares me man
The pfp scares me man
P4 arguer would say that this isn't a vote concerning independence, but a vote concerning holding a vote on independence
P4 arguer would say that this isn't a vote concerning independence, but a vote concerning holding a vote on independence
It's not "very cleanly" Do you really not appreciate the ambiguity in the term "concerning"?
It's not "very cleanly" Do you really not appreciate the ambiguity in the term "concerning"?
politico characterizes it a bit differently than most outlets
politico characterizes it a bit differently than most outlets
concerning can be interpreted in many different ways
concerning can be interpreted in many different ways
How is that obvious
How is that obvious
<@790041567187697675> Hi, is this market P2 or P4? https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027
<@790041567187697675> Hi, is this market P2 or P4? https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027
where is he
where is he
They have to counter the argument that it qualifies because holding a vote is presented as an alternative to remaining in Canada, they have to counter the argument that it sets a framework, they have to counter the argument that regardless it's a vote "concerning" independence, and they have to counter the argument that the media's presented this as a non-binding independence vote.
They have to counter the argument that it qualifies because holding a vote is presented as an alternative to remaining in Canada, they have to counter the argument that it sets a framework, they have to counter the argument that regardless it's a vote "concerning" independence, and they have to counter the argument that the media's presented this as a non-binding independence vote.
Plus, the P4 side just has to counter too much
Plus, the P4 side just has to counter too much
Will prob just pass in UMA due to price
Will prob just pass in UMA due to price
Won't be upset if it gets clarified P4, as long as it's well-explained
Won't be upset if it gets clarified P4, as long as it's well-explained
This is all I can rationally bear to hold at this current price I think — both sides have merit. gn and gl to everyone
This is all I can rationally bear to hold at this current price I think — both sides have merit. gn and gl to everyone
It's a P2 argument
It's a P2 argument
Media says it's a non-binding referendum vote
Media says it's a non-binding referendum vote
I think media portrayal should be the tiebreaker
I think media portrayal should be the tiebreaker
And being a general pest
And being a general pest
Shilling his sketchy UMA.rocks alternative
Shilling his sketchy UMA.rocks alternative
But he's banned
But he's banned
I need Alan's opinion so I can buy the opposite side
I need Alan's opinion so I can buy the opposite side
I'm stumped this is a really tricky dispute
I'm stumped this is a really tricky dispute
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Also it arguably "concern[s]" secession regardless, even if it were purely a vote on holding a binding referendum
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Also it arguably "concern[s]" secession regardless, even if it were purely a vote on holding a binding referendum
It's both.
It's both.
It's a referendum on remaining *and* a referendum on holding a binding vote on remaining. I know. Mindblowing. <:boarshock:1257017504916836524>
It's a referendum on remaining *and* a referendum on holding a binding vote on remaining. I know. Mindblowing. <:boarshock:1257017504916836524>
Logically it should be "do not hold separation referendum" but that's not how they wrote it! so it counts
Logically it should be "do not hold separation referendum" but that's not how they wrote it! so it counts
Also the converse answer to holding the separation referendum is literally "remain in canada" lol
Also the converse answer to holding the separation referendum is literally "remain in canada" lol
It kinda imposes a false dichotomy to the voters because holding a vote on Canada secession isn't really the converse of wanting Canada secession, but due to the weird way the question is formed it counts just because of the first conjunct in the question
It kinda imposes a false dichotomy to the voters because holding a vote on Canada secession isn't really the converse of wanting Canada secession, but due to the weird way the question is formed it counts just because of the first conjunct in the question
https://archive.is/675PR
https://archive.is/675PR
<@886004822669664286> This and many other articles have the exact phrasing of the question. It's: > Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?
<@886004822669664286> This and many other articles have the exact phrasing of the question. It's: > Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809jg1gj9yo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809jg1gj9yo
It's gonna hit all my 10000c walls
It's gonna hit all my 10000c walls
The mog-after-it's-settled-bot doesn't know what's coming
The mog-after-it's-settled-bot doesn't know what's coming
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