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Thonker参与话题 26消息总数 1397

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Thonker 2026-06-17 23:42:16 Polymarket

I guess I didn't wanna fade CNN especially with the later article where they cited 3 sources

I guess I didn't wanna fade CNN especially with the later article where they cited 3 sources

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:42:00 Polymarket

It was very surprising to me but this whole conflict has been full of surprises

It was very surprising to me but this whole conflict has been full of surprises

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:41:31 Polymarket

There's more info now beyond the US/Iran denials denizz was right and I was wrong <:Salute:1306491774537302138>

There's more info now beyond the US/Iran denials denizz was right and I was wrong <:Salute:1306491774537302138>

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:40:42 Polymarket

apparently so

apparently so

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:39:12 Polymarket

CNN just posted some fake news too about the MoU saying it was the electronically signed version, but apparently it was actually an old draft from May 💀

CNN just posted some fake news too about the MoU saying it was the electronically signed version, but apparently it was actually an old draft from May 💀

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:38:32 Polymarket

Isn't it already being revealed

Isn't it already being revealed

Thonker 2026-06-17 23:37:47 Polymarket

Interesting, so conflicting reports huh

Interesting, so conflicting reports huh

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:59:04 Polymarket

They should both go the same way tbh Iranian denial came after the deadline and CNN had snippets of it in a seperate article that matches Bloomberg The rules say "any portion" qualifies I detailed it more in my UMA post

They should both go the same way tbh Iranian denial came after the deadline and CNN had snippets of it in a seperate article that matches Bloomberg The rules say "any portion" qualifies I detailed it more in my UMA post

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:57:35 Polymarket

I think a consensus of credible reporting should overturn govt propaganda <:Shrug:1306491719201849364>

I think a consensus of credible reporting should overturn govt propaganda <:Shrug:1306491719201849364>

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:56:46 Polymarket

they're lying <:chad:1306492281976782919>

they're lying <:chad:1306492281976782919>

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:54:12 Polymarket

https://youtu.be/EMw-j6xCulc Denizz the scammer, ran off with the cash, Set the bait, pulled the rug—gone in a flash!

https://youtu.be/EMw-j6xCulc Denizz the scammer, ran off with the cash, Set the bait, pulled the rug—gone in a flash!

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:51:13 Polymarket

Yeah it's unclear to me if he's even denying that this is the one that was signed on Sunday

Yeah it's unclear to me if he's even denying that this is the one that was signed on Sunday

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:48:52 Polymarket

A credible leak does not cease to be credible because it was denied

A credible leak does not cease to be credible because it was denied

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:47:37 Polymarket

I think they're lying for optics reasons, guess we'll see

I think they're lying for optics reasons, guess we'll see

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:45:04 Polymarket

I genuinely think this was the version digitally signed on Sunday

I genuinely think this was the version digitally signed on Sunday

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:44:51 Polymarket

If more articles come out explicitly saying they are lying I think it should overturn

If more articles come out explicitly saying they are lying I think it should overturn

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:41:53 Polymarket

Call me crazy but idts

Call me crazy but idts

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:41:21 Polymarket

Unironically trust a CNN article citing 3 people over them

Unironically trust a CNN article citing 3 people over them

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:41:12 Polymarket

Cheung and Iran are lying <:chad:1306492281976782919>

Cheung and Iran are lying <:chad:1306492281976782919>

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:35:51 Polymarket

I trust CNN over state propaganda <:chad:1306492281976782919>

I trust CNN over state propaganda <:chad:1306492281976782919>

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:35:20 Polymarket

Cheung said "language of the actual MOU" Isn't he referring to the formal one that will be signed Friday that's still being revised

Cheung said "language of the actual MOU" Isn't he referring to the formal one that will be signed Friday that's still being revised

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:24:10 Polymarket

Iran lies constantly about everything, they claimed Khamenei was going live like 15 times after he was dead

Iran lies constantly about everything, they claimed Khamenei was going live like 15 times after he was dead

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:23:26 Polymarket

When you have multiple western outlets that cited multiple people at the summit saying the opposite, I think they should overrule

When you have multiple western outlets that cited multiple people at the summit saying the opposite, I think they should overrule

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:20:44 Polymarket

It would be horrible to overturn this because of Iranian lies

It would be horrible to overturn this because of Iranian lies

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:20:25 Polymarket

> A diplomat who saw it at the G7 summit in France this week confirmed its contents, as did two other diplomatic sources with knowledge of negotiations. They confirmed with multiple sources

> A diplomat who saw it at the G7 summit in France this week confirmed its contents, as did two other diplomatic sources with knowledge of negotiations. They confirmed with multiple sources

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:16:49 Polymarket

> The 14-point memorandum of understanding has not yet been officially released but a copy of it was obtained by CNN from a US official. A diplomat who saw it at the G7 summit in France this week confirmed its contents, as did two other diplomatic sources with knowledge of negotiations.

> The 14-point memorandum of understanding has not yet been officially released but a copy of it was obtained by CNN from a US official. A diplomat who saw it at the G7 summit in France this week confirmed its contents, as did two other diplomatic sources with knowledge of negotiations.

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:16:06 Polymarket

Does any N holder agree with the reflect thing except analista 💀

Does any N holder agree with the reflect thing except analista 💀

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:10:51 Polymarket

That means that's what the text is

That means that's what the text is

Thonker 2026-06-17 19:09:20 Polymarket

CNN said it's the version they signed

CNN said it's the version they signed

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:54:04 Polymarket

And that it's actively being revised

And that it's actively being revised

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:53:57 Polymarket

BBG is saying it's from G7, where is the contradiction?

BBG is saying it's from G7, where is the contradiction?

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:53:50 Polymarket

There's no conflict if this is a later draft

There's no conflict if this is a later draft

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:52:40 Polymarket

I don't get the argument that we should disregard it because it conflicts with an earlier version

I don't get the argument that we should disregard it because it conflicts with an earlier version

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:52:28 Polymarket

I think it is, they literally say its what's being circulated at G7

I think it is, they literally say its what's being circulated at G7

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:49:27 Polymarket

idgi

idgi

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:49:10 Polymarket

Why should we discount something from the G7 Summit due to a lack of inclusion of a clause from an earlier draft?

Why should we discount something from the G7 Summit due to a lack of inclusion of a clause from an earlier draft?

Thonker 2026-06-17 15:09:45 Polymarket

is this ai 😭

is this ai 😭

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:41:03 Polymarket

He's just making a joke/callback

He's just making a joke/callback

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:33:47 Polymarket

So I guess I'll stay out

So I guess I'll stay out

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:33:40 Polymarket

Not sure any of that stuff should count but the bar is insanely low

Not sure any of that stuff should count but the bar is insanely low

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:33:29 Polymarket

Insult disputed

Insult disputed

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:33:13 Polymarket

They said it's the latest draft that they saw themselves and in a seperate article referenced it when talking to people about the matter

They said it's the latest draft that they saw themselves and in a seperate article referenced it when talking to people about the matter

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:28:18 Polymarket

I remember last night when 50P tried to use House of Saud as a source <:chad:1306492281976782919>

I remember last night when 50P tried to use House of Saud as a source <:chad:1306492281976782919>

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:25:52 Polymarket

I think BBG should be considered more credible than them, maybe it wasn't in the deal to begin with

I think BBG should be considered more credible than them, maybe it wasn't in the deal to begin with

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:25:39 Polymarket

Who says amwaj isn't mistaken?

Who says amwaj isn't mistaken?

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:19:39 Polymarket

Temporally the amwaj/iran one comes first so I disagree that there's a conflict

Temporally the amwaj/iran one comes first so I disagree that there's a conflict

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:18:09 Polymarket

He also said "I watched a senator reed that nobody ever heard of the other day"

He also said "I watched a senator reed that nobody ever heard of the other day"

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:16:45 Polymarket

https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xfd8594f2ce43dae64729da567342c609e9f8d255bee6e80b3c5fa49639f5a37c <@95759375464923136> FYI this is what he's talking about, there was a dispute market he gave me alpha for, I promised him 30%, gave him 30%, which was $16,125, actually a little less but I rounded it a bit, and then he crashed out and wanted 50%

https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xfd8594f2ce43dae64729da567342c609e9f8d255bee6e80b3c5fa49639f5a37c <@95759375464923136> FYI this is what he's talking about, there was a dispute market he gave me alpha for, I promised him 30%, gave him 30%, which was $16,125, actually a little less but I rounded it a bit, and then he crashed out and wanted 50%

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:14:04 Polymarket

False but we can escrow with aenews or someone if you want

False but we can escrow with aenews or someone if you want

Thonker 2026-06-17 14:12:10 Polymarket

These are formal terms for a sidebet between <@95759375464923136> and <@570563844678877196>. If the final, formally, physically signed version of the US-Iran agreement, released by the United States, has a clause that states that it will "ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,” or any materially equivalent language, <@570563844678877196> will win this sidebet. Otherwise, <@95759375464923136> will win. If the draft merely states that there will be an "immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon," that will not alone suffice. A clause ensuring "territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon" is necessary. If <@95759375464923136> wins this bet, he will transfer $960 to <@570563844678877196>. If <@570563844678877196> wins this bet, he will transfer $40 to <@95759375464923136> . If the full text of the deal is released by the United States by EOY 2026 Eastern Time, this sidebet will be cancelled. We can also escrow with someone or have someone resolve a dispute if you want. Do these terms sound good?

These are formal terms for a sidebet between <@95759375464923136> and <@570563844678877196>. If the final, formally, physically signed version of the US-Iran agreement, released by the United States, has a clause that states that it will "ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,” or any materially equivalent language, <@570563844678877196> will win this sidebet. Otherwise, <@95759375464923136> will win. If the draft merely states that there will be an "immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon," that will not alone suffice. A clause ensuring "territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon" is necessary. If <@95759375464923136> wins this bet, he will transfer $960 to <@570563844678877196>. If <@570563844678877196> wins this bet, he will transfer $40 to <@95759375464923136> . If the full text of the deal is released by the United States by EOY 2026 Eastern Time, this sidebet will be cancelled. We can also escrow with someone or have someone resolve a dispute if you want. Do these terms sound good?

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