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Hakei参与话题 29消息总数 895

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Hakei 2026-07-08 19:23:17 Polymarket

I'm actually about $150k across all wallets but the "main" one hasn't ever done any auto trading so I feel like that really matters when it's a nice round number

I'm actually about $150k across all wallets but the "main" one hasn't ever done any auto trading so I feel like that really matters when it's a nice round number

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:15:04 Polymarket

23~ days at 99.2c on something like this seems like a much riskier bond than other trades 🤔 very happy to sell

23~ days at 99.2c on something like this seems like a much riskier bond than other trades 🤔 very happy to sell

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:12:49 Polymarket

I need whale

I need whale

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:12:37 Polymarket

Congrats only after $100k 😭

Congrats only after $100k 😭

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:12:03 Polymarket

<:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> $5k and we're back

<:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> <:amazing:1451800442420858912> $5k and we're back

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:10:34 Polymarket

He won't even wear hijab any more

He won't even wear hijab any more

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:09:23 Polymarket

He's trolling, just mute and move on

He's trolling, just mute and move on

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:08:37 Polymarket

Assigned Muslim at Birth?! 🤣 It's a choice, dumbass

Assigned Muslim at Birth?! 🤣 It's a choice, dumbass

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:06:41 Polymarket

What even is this argument

What even is this argument

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:06:30 Polymarket

Who cares

Who cares

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:06:17 Polymarket

Based

Based

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:06:07 Polymarket

He never said he was a Muslim

He never said he was a Muslim

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:05:16 Polymarket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_private_network

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_private_network

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:04:57 Polymarket

I'm not supporting any other countries right now. You seem to want to move away from the central premise and talking point to try auxiliary tactics.

I'm not supporting any other countries right now. You seem to want to move away from the central premise and talking point to try auxiliary tactics.

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:03:48 Polymarket

You're arguing against statements I never made

You're arguing against statements I never made

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:03:32 Polymarket

What point do you think you're making that I disagree with?

What point do you think you're making that I disagree with?

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:02:37 Polymarket

There's no evidence at all that Iran is irrational at the state level?

There's no evidence at all that Iran is irrational at the state level?

Hakei 2026-07-08 19:00:32 Polymarket

Me: "Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon" You: "Someone else has a nuclear weapon, what about that?" Me: "I have no opinion on that topic as it pertains to Iran" You: "Convenient!"

Me: "Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon" You: "Someone else has a nuclear weapon, what about that?" Me: "I have no opinion on that topic as it pertains to Iran" You: "Convenient!"

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:59:27 Polymarket

The concept of "illegal nuclear weapons" as it pertains to an individual state is a meaningless one, but the question itself is a red herring, because I'm not defending any state having a nuclear weapon, I'm saying Iran shouldn't have one

The concept of "illegal nuclear weapons" as it pertains to an individual state is a meaningless one, but the question itself is a red herring, because I'm not defending any state having a nuclear weapon, I'm saying Iran shouldn't have one

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:57:38 Polymarket

Again, if your argument is "Person X has this take and I don't like Person X", you're not engaging in the type of conversation I'm interested in having

Again, if your argument is "Person X has this take and I don't like Person X", you're not engaging in the type of conversation I'm interested in having

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:56:17 Polymarket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Destruction_of_Israel_in_Iranian_policy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Destruction_of_Israel_in_Iranian_policy

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:55:24 Polymarket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:54:53 Polymarket

When did I say they killed millions of people

When did I say they killed millions of people

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:54:26 Polymarket

If your argument against a position is "Person X, who I dislike, also has this position", you're failing at constructing a valid counter argument

If your argument against a position is "Person X, who I dislike, also has this position", you're failing at constructing a valid counter argument

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:53:30 Polymarket

Because Iran is a uniquely terrible state that wants to kill millions of people, and it's really important they never get a nuclear device, since it's really hard to negotiate once they have that, especially since they're irrational actors who believe in 72 virgins when they die

Because Iran is a uniquely terrible state that wants to kill millions of people, and it's really important they never get a nuclear device, since it's really hard to negotiate once they have that, especially since they're irrational actors who believe in 72 virgins when they die

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:52:22 Polymarket

Condemning the attacks on Iran? Yes, absolutely

Condemning the attacks on Iran? Yes, absolutely

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:51:17 Polymarket

They don't need to participate in the war, but they're retards for condemning it

They don't need to participate in the war, but they're retards for condemning it

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:50:31 Polymarket

Their moralizing over the Iran strikes was ridiculous

Their moralizing over the Iran strikes was ridiculous

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:50:16 Polymarket

Trump sucks but fuck Spain too

Trump sucks but fuck Spain too

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:49:49 Polymarket

He had like $15k to play with, that's more than sufficient to really not take huge risks and hit $50k by EOY

He had like $15k to play with, that's more than sufficient to really not take huge risks and hit $50k by EOY

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:48:59 Polymarket

Because for a few weeks there he was thinking about trades, gathering alpha and making several standard deviations more than 90% of planet Earth and 99.9% more than his fellow countrymen

Because for a few weeks there he was thinking about trades, gathering alpha and making several standard deviations more than 90% of planet Earth and 99.9% more than his fellow countrymen

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:47:37 Polymarket

I fear there's no redemption arc

I fear there's no redemption arc

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:47:11 Polymarket

Was the position hedged on a second account? Is it all a great big joke?

Was the position hedged on a second account? Is it all a great big joke?

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:46:37 Polymarket

I just don't get the rationale at all

I just don't get the rationale at all

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:40:01 Polymarket

The game isn't for 30~ hours

The game isn't for 30~ hours

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:36:55 Polymarket

My Fable usage resets tomorrow 🤔

My Fable usage resets tomorrow 🤔

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:32:58 Polymarket

Seems like they try really hard to not allow people to game the system and get free money 😡

Seems like they try really hard to not allow people to game the system and get free money 😡

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:30:19 Polymarket

Hmm, fair

Hmm, fair

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:28:49 Polymarket LP奖励耕作机器人策略探讨

But I guess your reward share depends on lower levels of liquidity 🤔

But I guess your reward share depends on lower levels of liquidity 🤔

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:28:34 Polymarket

Yeah like world cup games where they're deeply liquid already

Yeah like world cup games where they're deeply liquid already

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:22:30 Polymarket

Yeah dunno, maybe. Something I can code in with the L x V calculation

Yeah dunno, maybe. Something I can code in with the L x V calculation

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:21:44 Polymarket

You're not allowed to place orders that you never intend to get filled, but I think that's materially different from placing orders in a way where you lower the probability of you getting filled based on new information provided by the market (i.e. you want to get the absolute best entry)

You're not allowed to place orders that you never intend to get filled, but I think that's materially different from placing orders in a way where you lower the probability of you getting filled based on new information provided by the market (i.e. you want to get the absolute best entry)

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:19:42 Polymarket

Does something violate Polymarket rules?

Does something violate Polymarket rules?

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:19:12 Polymarket

Email carries too much risk

Email carries too much risk

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:19:05 Polymarket

Keys only for me

Keys only for me

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:18:20 Polymarket

The biggest tail risk is a quick click, but for sufficiently liquid markets, I think it's relatively unlikely that matters?

The biggest tail risk is a quick click, but for sufficiently liquid markets, I think it's relatively unlikely that matters?

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:17:38 Polymarket LP奖励耕作机器人策略探讨

1. Bot always sets its limit orders at the maximal distance from center of book (+-4c) 2. Monitor all markets and gather a small, helpful data point (Liquidity x Volatility) 3. Cross-reference the L x V data point with the available rewards 4. Set max $1k either side of the book and slowly lower L x V threshold 5. Reset LP routinely so you're always bottom of the book

1. Bot always sets its limit orders at the maximal distance from center of book (+-4c) 2. Monitor all markets and gather a small, helpful data point (Liquidity x Volatility) 3. Cross-reference the L x V data point with the available rewards 4. Set max $1k either side of the book and slowly lower L x V threshold 5. Reset LP routinely so you're always bottom of the book

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:13:23 Polymarket

Here's the theorycraft

Here's the theorycraft

Hakei 2026-07-08 18:12:47 Polymarket LP奖励耕作机器人策略探讨

With a small clustering of rules I feel like it'd be quite low risk

With a small clustering of rules I feel like it'd be quite low risk

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