秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

arbguy参与话题 16消息总数 1318

该用户的聊天记录定位。

Reset

聊天记录

共 1318 条,显示第 901-950 条
arbguy 2026-06-11 03:14:52 Polymarket

lord MYTHOS: Every operative word in this market points one direction in time. The resolution criterion is "announces that Project Freedom will be restarted" — stated twice — and the surrounding machinery only makes sense for prospective statements. The rider that announcements count "regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect" exists to protect YES holders from a program that's promised but delayed or never executed; "whether" it goes into effect can only be an open question for an announcement that precedes implementation. The rider presupposes the announce-then-act sequence — it doesn't retroactively convert narration of history into a restart announcement. The definitiveness sentence confirms the same architecture: the excluded categories — suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations — are a graded spectrum of future-directed statements, and the rule is calibrating how firm a commitment to future action must be before it counts. A statement containing no future content at all isn't a weak entry on that spectrum; it's categorically outside the thing being measured. Had the drafters wanted disclosures of past or ongoing operations to qualify, they'd have written "announces that such a program has been, is being, or will be conducted." They wrote only "will be restarted." Measured against that standard, the post contains nothing to resolve on. Every verb is past tense or present perfect: a directive issued "last month," results that "have" accumulated, ships that "have" traveled. There is no "will," no "continue," no "resume," no "going forward" — and the framing is affirmatively terminal: results are tallied, victory is declared, "It's over for Iran." That is a eulogy for an operation, not a commitment to one. Even crediting the Oval Office remarks that oil has been moving out nightly and was being announced for the first time as implying the operation is ongoing, an announcement that something is secretly happening is still not an announcement that it will be restarted — there is no "is occurring" prong in these rules, and inferring continuation from silence violates the requirement that only definitive announcements qualify. The YES reading also produces an absurdity the rules can't bear: the directive Trump described predates or roughly coincides with the market's open, meaning the market would resolve on conduct that existed before the question was even asked, merely because it was narrated inside the window. That transforms a forward-looking event market into a disclosure lottery — whoever happens to declassify history first decides resolution. The market priced whether a restart would be promised by the deadline. No promise was made

lord MYTHOS: Every operative word in this market points one direction in time. The resolution criterion is "announces that Project Freedom will be restarted" — stated twice — and the surrounding machinery only makes sense for prospective statements. The rider that announcements count "regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect" exists to protect YES holders from a program that's promised but delayed or never executed; "whether" it goes into effect can only be an open question for an announcement that precedes implementation. The rider presupposes the announce-then-act sequence — it doesn't retroactively convert narration of history into a restart announcement. The definitiveness sentence confirms the same architecture: the excluded categories — suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations — are a graded spectrum of future-directed statements, and the rule is calibrating how firm a commitment to future action must be before it counts. A statement containing no future content at all isn't a weak entry on that spectrum; it's categorically outside the thing being measured. Had the drafters wanted disclosures of past or ongoing operations to qualify, they'd have written "announces that such a program has been, is being, or will be conducted." They wrote only "will be restarted." Measured against that standard, the post contains nothing to resolve on. Every verb is past tense or present perfect: a directive issued "last month," results that "have" accumulated, ships that "have" traveled. There is no "will," no "continue," no "resume," no "going forward" — and the framing is affirmatively terminal: results are tallied, victory is declared, "It's over for Iran." That is a eulogy for an operation, not a commitment to one. Even crediting the Oval Office remarks that oil has been moving out nightly and was being announced for the first time as implying the operation is ongoing, an announcement that something is secretly happening is still not an announcement that it will be restarted — there is no "is occurring" prong in these rules, and inferring continuation from silence violates the requirement that only definitive announcements qualify. The YES reading also produces an absurdity the rules can't bear: the directive Trump described predates or roughly coincides with the market's open, meaning the market would resolve on conduct that existed before the question was even asked, merely because it was narrated inside the window. That transforms a forward-looking event market into a disclosure lottery — whoever happens to declassify history first decides resolution. The market priced whether a restart would be promised by the deadline. No promise was made

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:12:36 Polymarket

the losing has already occured

the losing has already occured

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:12:06 Polymarket

"I have lost my keys" is also present perfect with nothing whatsoever to do with a present or future action

"I have lost my keys" is also present perfect with nothing whatsoever to do with a present or future action

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:10:58 Polymarket

how is that clear???

how is that clear???

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:08:47 Polymarket

that's where the word have appears, your point is retarded <@570563844678877196>

that's where the word have appears, your point is retarded <@570563844678877196>

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:08:27 Polymarket

Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Straight, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait.

Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Straight, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait.

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:08:02 Polymarket

you could say either

you could say either

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:07:24 Polymarket

there is nothing in that statement saying whether you are still selling shirts or if you ever will sell another

there is nothing in that statement saying whether you are still selling shirts or if you ever will sell another

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:07:00 Polymarket

maybe maybe not??? literally that's the point

maybe maybe not??? literally that's the point

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:06:42 Polymarket

not clear

not clear

there is not enough here to know what and when and his entire announcement is past tense <@1272383282687905939> <@941405798096076880> His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

there is not enough here to know what and when and his entire announcement is past tense <@1272383282687905939> <@941405798096076880> His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:05:27 Polymarket

<@1272383282687905939> His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

<@1272383282687905939> His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:04:55 Polymarket

easiest p4:** His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22**

easiest p4:** His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22**

arbguy 2026-06-11 03:04:32 Polymarket

His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

His announcement could literally be covering actions that occured prior to market creation on 5/22

arbguy 2026-06-10 23:37:55 Polymarket

sounds scammy

sounds scammy

arbguy 2026-06-10 23:37:17 Polymarket

what's your gripe, which market

what's your gripe, which market

arbguy 2026-06-10 23:36:08 Polymarket

is liquid degen a retard? if so what is he arguing about?

is liquid degen a retard? if so what is he arguing about?

arbguy 2026-06-10 05:43:08 Polymarket

i tried searching but it froze

i tried searching but it froze

arbguy 2026-06-10 05:43:03 Polymarket

i would find that "description of capital stock" referencd in the screenshot and see what it says

i would find that "description of capital stock" referencd in the screenshot and see what it says

arbguy 2026-06-10 05:42:51 Polymarket

is yahoo finance resolution source? Seems like class b should count

is yahoo finance resolution source? Seems like class b should count

arbguy 2026-06-10 01:46:39 Polymarket

lol gayshi

lol gayshi

arbguy 2026-06-10 01:01:04 Polymarket

it's mythos adjacent

it's mythos adjacent

arbguy 2026-06-10 00:59:27 Polymarket

is there a press release

is there a press release

arbguy 2026-06-10 00:56:44 Polymarket

that's already happened

that's already happened

arbguy 2026-06-10 00:56:29 Polymarket

still a no

still a no

arbguy 2026-06-10 00:54:37 Polymarket

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:48:32 Polymarket

why do you keep saying hecker

why do you keep saying hecker

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:48:06 Polymarket

banhammer coming

banhammer coming

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:47:26 Polymarket

thanks bro

thanks bro

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:42:49 Polymarket

bel since you're here, i'd like to request "vro" and "crine" and all variations to be censored from this server and be bannable

bel since you're here, i'd like to request "vro" and "crine" and all variations to be censored from this server and be bannable

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:41:46 Polymarket

can someone ping me if aekgas deposits a large amount

can someone ping me if aekgas deposits a large amount

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:20:32 Polymarket

yea don't do that

yea don't do that

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:19:53 Polymarket

jfc

jfc

arbguy 2026-06-09 23:19:42 Polymarket

wait people actually use e-mail to log in ??/

wait people actually use e-mail to log in ??/

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:09:36 Polymarket

anyone who chooses jessicaonlytard as their overlord/chief retard deserves what they get

anyone who chooses jessicaonlytard as their overlord/chief retard deserves what they get

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:08:46 Polymarket

they clarify almost everything now so basically they don't and i doubt uma will exist for much longer

they clarify almost everything now so basically they don't and i doubt uma will exist for much longer

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:08:06 Polymarket

so uma is not only retarded but they are soft

so uma is not only retarded but they are soft

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:07:56 Polymarket

how is that bannable

how is that bannable

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:07:49 Polymarket

A troglodyte is literally a cave dweller or someone who lives underground. By extension, the term is used as an insult to describe a reclusive, unrefined person, or someone with outdated, reactionary views who is deliberately resistant to modern society and technology.

A troglodyte is literally a cave dweller or someone who lives underground. By extension, the term is used as an insult to describe a reclusive, unrefined person, or someone with outdated, reactionary views who is deliberately resistant to modern society and technology.

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:07:17 Polymarket

troglodyte

troglodyte

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:06:34 Polymarket

already saying "vro" and "crine" both of which should be bannable here imo. not helping you

already saying "vro" and "crine" both of which should be bannable here imo. not helping you

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:02:40 Polymarket

yea honestly this

yea honestly this

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:02:27 Polymarket

felt bad for kelly

felt bad for kelly

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:02:11 Polymarket

lol i was gonna ask them too

lol i was gonna ask them too

arbguy 2026-06-09 18:00:05 Polymarket

they banned you from entire server? you should dm a mod and just say you didn't know the rules

they banned you from entire server? you should dm a mod and just say you didn't know the rules

arbguy 2026-06-09 17:49:10 Polymarket

what did you get banned for

what did you get banned for

arbguy 2026-06-09 17:47:29 Polymarket

lol

lol

arbguy 2026-06-09 17:47:17 Polymarket

wtf is a troglodyte

wtf is a troglodyte

arbguy 2026-06-09 17:47:07 Polymarket

that's a lame ban

that's a lame ban

arbguy 2026-06-09 17:46:59 Polymarket

oh i thought this was a burner account

oh i thought this was a burner account

← 上一页 第 19 / 27 页 下一页 →