KalshiFs in chat for Leeroy
Fs in chat for Leeroy
Nate参与话题 25消息总数 503
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 503 条，显示第 201-250 条guy on poly had $8.7M on Belgium
guy on poly had $8.7M on Belgium
wtf is this reddit guy on about? was there a debate about verizon mention in that game or is he just huffing AI hallucinations?
wtf is this reddit guy on about? was there a debate about verizon mention in that game or is he just huffing AI hallucinations?
Are you asking if the kalshi markets closed early or the actual fights were stopped in progress?
Are you asking if the kalshi markets closed early or the actual fights were stopped in progress?
Vindication for them
Vindication for them
Sure but ideas was overwhelmingly Y on Friday when the market did not respect the exact same argument that ended up winning
Sure but ideas was overwhelmingly Y on Friday when the market did not respect the exact same argument that ended up winning
Guess all the ideas Y buyers after he showed up to the press conference Friday were right. Rare ideas W
Guess all the ideas Y buyers after he showed up to the press conference Friday were right. Rare ideas W
AI hallucination for sure. 99% of the time when ideas is on some BS its because they just asked grok
AI hallucination for sure. 99% of the time when ideas is on some BS its because they just asked grok
watched 21-22 on the clock, no phrase anything like that in that minute
watched 21-22 on the clock, no phrase anything like that in that minute
i'm also predisposed to go N on strickland because when he showed up to the presser on friday it didn't bond Y and ideas was all arguing it should count and ideas is always wrong so i figured, yeah ideas is wrong and only the actual fight should count. but now everyone seems to be saying ideas was right on friday? crazy
i'm also predisposed to go N on strickland because when he showed up to the presser on friday it didn't bond Y and ideas was all arguing it should count and ideas is always wrong so i figured, yeah ideas is wrong and only the actual fight should count. but now everyone seems to be saying ideas was right on friday? crazy
don't forget the full contract has 8 paragraphs of legalese that makes it an event contract blah blah blah which doens't help define the rules
don't forget the full contract has 8 paragraphs of legalese that makes it an event contract blah blah blah which doens't help define the rules
if they saw this coming and only solution was to add "any" to that rule, they are idiots. if the intent was to include weigh ins, presser and fan events they could easily have said that
if they saw this coming and only solution was to add "any" to that rule, they are idiots. if the intent was to include weigh ins, presser and fan events they could easily have said that
likely even
likely even
but its possible that's what they did
but its possible that's what they did
making a market that includes fan events, press conference and weigh ins is stupid (imo) and doesn't match the title/spirit of the market imo
making a market that includes fan events, press conference and weigh ins is stupid (imo) and doesn't match the title/spirit of the market imo
https://giphy.com/gifs/i-dont-know-chris-farley-bPTXcJiIzzWz6
https://giphy.com/gifs/i-dont-know-chris-farley-bPTXcJiIzzWz6
ufc calls fights events, its possible in my mind kalshi meant any fight and their AI that writes rules spit out nonsense
ufc calls fights events, its possible in my mind kalshi meant any fight and their AI that writes rules spit out nonsense
if it was intended to include presser, weigh ins and fan events, the rules should have said so more clearly
if it was intended to include presser, weigh ins and fan events, the rules should have said so more clearly
because kalshi sucks at writing clear rules
because kalshi sucks at writing clear rules
🤷 might be wrong. but the goal isn't to be correct, its to arrive at the same answer as kalshi
🤷 might be wrong. but the goal isn't to be correct, its to arrive at the same answer as kalshi
N argument, I think the 8 fights were the freedom 250 events
N argument, I think the 8 fights were the freedom 250 events
i think the N argument is stronger than 7%, but not sure how much stronger. spirit of the market vibes feel N to me
i think the N argument is stronger than 7%, but not sure how much stronger. spirit of the market vibes feel N to me
if side shit counts it should have bonded Y friday
if side shit counts it should have bonded Y friday
depends on the definition of "event". UFC calls the fights events, like "and now the main event of the evening" the most famous line in UFC
depends on the definition of "event". UFC calls the fights events, like "and now the main event of the evening" the most famous line in UFC
if you assume "any 250 event" = press conference, weight ins, fan zone then yeah its 100% Y and should have bonded on friday. if "any event" actually means any of the fights, you knows the events that happen during a UFC card then its clear N because he wasn't there for any fights
if you assume "any 250 event" = press conference, weight ins, fan zone then yeah its 100% Y and should have bonded on friday. if "any event" actually means any of the fights, you knows the events that happen during a UFC card then its clear N because he wasn't there for any fights
🤔
🤔
they won the africa cup earlier this year (via a court decision 3 months after losing in the finals)
they won the africa cup earlier this year (via a court decision 3 months after losing in the finals)
2Q score was 24-19 in favor of the knicks, so that's a No
2Q score was 24-19 in favor of the knicks, so that's a No
anyone live in NYC and want to go stalk some celebs to find out who is still in town and certainly not in san antonio?
anyone live in NYC and want to go stalk some celebs to find out who is still in town and certainly not in san antonio?
...spike went N despite source agency
...spike went N despite source agency
good times
good times
or asap rocky late show
or asap rocky late show
"if by kalshi rule writers" you man claude, yeah
"if by kalshi rule writers" you man claude, yeah
depends on the method. bank transfers take 2-3 days
depends on the method. bank transfers take 2-3 days
for the "attend UFC 250?" market, kalshi didn't list paramount as a source agency. so we've got 24hrs until someone tries to argue that X person appearing on the official broadcast isn't sufficient without a source agency report
for the "attend UFC 250?" market, kalshi didn't list paramount as a source agency. so we've got 24hrs until someone tries to argue that X person appearing on the official broadcast isn't sufficient without a source agency report
schrodinger's gregg. he was both at the game and not at the game until a source agency observes him
schrodinger's gregg. he was both at the game and not at the game until a source agency observes him
🤷
🤷
reality matters when kalshi feels it should. pop is stuck so long because they can't decide whether not reality matters this time
reality matters when kalshi feels it should. pop is stuck so long because they can't decide whether not reality matters this time
right, they would take it into account by not proposing or bonding N
right, they would take it into account by not proposing or bonding N
risk of delayed reporting
risk of delayed reporting
if that's how you think it should work no market will ever get proposed N
if that's how you think it should work no market will ever get proposed N
i can tell
i can tell
if that's how you want it to work then nobody will ever propose N
if that's how you want it to work then nobody will ever propose N
report comes out that his net work actually was 1T on May 30th, flip to Y sucks to be the N proposer, right?
report comes out that his net work actually was 1T on May 30th, flip to Y sucks to be the N proposer, right?
new evidence could overturn it after a correct proposal is baselessly disputed
new evidence could overturn it after a correct proposal is baselessly disputed
too risky
too risky
then no market would ever get proposed N
then no market would ever get proposed N
so if someone makes a valid N proposal, someone disputes baselessly then new evidence comes out you think that should count?
so if someone makes a valid N proposal, someone disputes baselessly then new evidence comes out you think that should count?
allowing new evidence from after the end date to flip a resolution creates a very messy precedent and makes all N markets unproposable
allowing new evidence from after the end date to flip a resolution creates a very messy precedent and makes all N markets unproposable
poly never "closes". it just has an end date and people propose resolution. the end date was reached, N was proposed then disputed then new evidence came out
poly never "closes". it just has an end date and people propose resolution. the end date was reached, N was proposed then disputed then new evidence came out