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Arman, I like you but I think your understanding of this conflict is very surface level and I genuinely implore you to not waste more money
Arman, I like you but I think your understanding of this conflict is very surface level and I genuinely implore you to not waste more money
Is a short-term gain worth sacrificing long-term leverage?
Is a short-term gain worth sacrificing long-term leverage?
Is 12b a lot in terms of a national-scale economy?
Is 12b a lot in terms of a national-scale economy?
It was a joke
It was a joke
Yours or theirs?
Yours or theirs?
What's your thesis on why Iran wants to stop fighting?
What's your thesis on why Iran wants to stop fighting?
You can still get 4+c for N on peace/ceasefire announced June 13
You can still get 4+c for N on peace/ceasefire announced June 13
But Trump said bro 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺
But Trump said bro 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺
BREAKING: US signs terms that include "Iran is gay lol"; signals Iran will "totally sign in coming days"
BREAKING: US signs terms that include "Iran is gay lol"; signals Iran will "totally sign in coming days"
US signs its own agreement absent the enemy it's warring with; declares victory What a heartwarming story. Wow much yes
US signs its own agreement absent the enemy it's warring with; declares victory What a heartwarming story. Wow much yes
Announcement market, not mention market
Announcement market, not mention market
The agreement that Iran has denied? The one they won't be signing tomorrow?
The agreement that Iran has denied? The one they won't be signing tomorrow?
They were announcements based on reality and fact, not just Trump dating whatever off the cuff
They were announcements based on reality and fact, not just Trump dating whatever off the cuff
Trump says some bullshit = N
Trump says some bullshit = N
"We announce we have agreed to a ceasefire, to take effect in three days from now" Valid, market resolves Yes
"We announce we have agreed to a ceasefire, to take effect in three days from now" Valid, market resolves Yes
Sell docusigning, buy spiritual signing
Sell docusigning, buy spiritual signing
Yeah, peace... of cake 🍰
Yeah, peace... of cake 🍰
Nope it was invented in a hotel in India though to appeal to foreigners
Nope it was invented in a hotel in India though to appeal to foreigners
Yeah but the classics are so good that you never even bother with anything else. I had keema before too and that's really nice but most places don't serve it
Yeah but the classics are so good that you never even bother with anything else. I had keema before too and that's really nice but most places don't serve it
Actually that's it. That's the only Indian food white people eat.
Actually that's it. That's the only Indian food white people eat.
Butter chicken, chicken tikka masala...
Butter chicken, chicken tikka masala...
Mmmmm Indian sauces
Mmmmm Indian sauces
Mark your bingo card guys, he said the thing
Mark your bingo card guys, he said the thing
Well obviously I've bet on it
Well obviously I've bet on it
My thesis remains that Iran wants to drag out negotiations for maximum leverage while still appearing cooperative
My thesis remains that Iran wants to drag out negotiations for maximum leverage while still appearing cooperative
One of us will be eating our words in the coming days. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it
One of us will be eating our words in the coming days. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it
Nothing has happened so far to prove you right other than chatter
Nothing has happened so far to prove you right other than chatter
They also drop bombs during ceasefires
They also drop bombs during ceasefires
Yes surely Israel would support a peace deal and not continue bombing. Especially when that peace deal doesn't involve them
Yes surely Israel would support a peace deal and not continue bombing. Especially when that peace deal doesn't involve them
Didn't you continually add to your port, or did you start with a set amount and let it grow from there?
Didn't you continually add to your port, or did you start with a set amount and let it grow from there?
I don't want to put too much money into my account. I'd prefer real estate, stocks and building out my vidya collection, but it's fun seeing your gambling money go up quickly
I don't want to put too much money into my account. I'd prefer real estate, stocks and building out my vidya collection, but it's fun seeing your gambling money go up quickly
1m+ yearly profit just on Polymarket is legendary stuff. What did you start with?
1m+ yearly profit just on Polymarket is legendary stuff. What did you start with?
US is signing peace today with a bunch of tinpot oil gulf dictatorships that sat around taking body shots throughout the conflict. Israel and Iran are staying home from the back-patting ceremony
US is signing peace today with a bunch of tinpot oil gulf dictatorships that sat around taking body shots throughout the conflict. Israel and Iran are staying home from the back-patting ceremony
Can you blame them? The US has demonstrated the worth of their commitments
Can you blame them? The US has demonstrated the worth of their commitments
It's not just nuclear. It's reopening the strait with no fees, too
It's not just nuclear. It's reopening the strait with no fees, too
Well yeah, I mean it would be stupid for them to agree to any terms that return to a status quo or a very slight win for Iran
Well yeah, I mean it would be stupid for them to agree to any terms that return to a status quo or a very slight win for Iran
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: UNDER DRAFT MEMORANDUM, U.S. AGREES TO RELEASE $25 BILLION OF IRAN’S FROZEN ASSETS, INCLUDING VIA DIRECT CASH TRANSFERS, COOPERATION AMONG REGIONAL COUNTRIES, AND FINANCIAL CREDIT LINES While... *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: UNDER DRAFT MEMORANDUM, U.S. AGREES TO RELEASE $25 BILLION OF IRAN’S FROZEN ASSETS, INCLUDING VIA DIRECT CASH TRANSFERS, COOPERATION AMONG REGIONAL COUNTRIES, AND FINANCIAL CREDIT LINES While... *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL
But there is a quibble
But there is a quibble
If Iran agrees to those terms, they're retarded
If Iran agrees to those terms, they're retarded
It's almost like Iran has no incentive to make a deal right now and would prefer to expose Trump as a fucking clown on his birthday, crazy right who could've predicted
It's almost like Iran has no incentive to make a deal right now and would prefer to expose Trump as a fucking clown on his birthday, crazy right who could've predicted
Yeah for the 37th time
Yeah for the 37th time
If transit fees are not in the deal, there is no deal
If transit fees are not in the deal, there is no deal
Either the deal isn't going to happen, or, it will happen (with Hormuz fees). That's why Hormuz fees is a good Y hedge if you're not a peacetard
Either the deal isn't going to happen, or, it will happen (with Hormuz fees). That's why Hormuz fees is a good Y hedge if you're not a peacetard
Yes: IF you believe Trump, who says whatever the fuck he wants, and not the Iranians, who have been consistent with their demands
Yes: IF you believe Trump, who says whatever the fuck he wants, and not the Iranians, who have been consistent with their demands
Okay so: Nuclear will not happen without transit fees. Nuclear bigger $$$$ than transit fees $
Okay so: Nuclear will not happen without transit fees. Nuclear bigger $$$$ than transit fees $
Okay, that one was a retarded market because the language is about announcing a deal has been made, while retards were arguing Trump effectively saying "a deal will be made soon!" is essentially the same thing (spoilers: it isn't)
Okay, that one was a retarded market because the language is about announcing a deal has been made, while retards were arguing Trump effectively saying "a deal will be made soon!" is essentially the same thing (spoilers: it isn't)
It would be more fun if you came up with new insults. Something original would make it feel less like I'm punching retards
It would be more fun if you came up with new insults. Something original would make it feel less like I'm punching retards
Arman, I have told you this already. Let me reiterate again and I am not saying it again: 1. Nuclear deal is an AGREEMENT, not an ANNOUNCEMENT 2. Hormuz fees is an ANNOUNCEMENT, not an AGREEMENT Trump wants 1, Iran wants 2
Arman, I have told you this already. Let me reiterate again and I am not saying it again: 1. Nuclear deal is an AGREEMENT, not an ANNOUNCEMENT 2. Hormuz fees is an ANNOUNCEMENT, not an AGREEMENT Trump wants 1, Iran wants 2
Iran has the cards, Iran has been consistent with its messaging
Iran has the cards, Iran has been consistent with its messaging
Bro that's quite literally exactly my point. Bettors give priority to Trump's words and dismiss Iran's
Bro that's quite literally exactly my point. Bettors give priority to Trump's words and dismiss Iran's
Polymarket