**P4 : Too Early**
The rules say: “This market will resolve to YES if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data.”
**Rationale:**
The resolution criteria are based on whether a Bitcoin sale occurred before May 31 at 11:59 PM ET. This is an event-based market. The rules do not say that the sale must be announced before that deadline.
Strategy Inc. consistently reports Bitcoin activity, including buys and/or sales of bitcoin, for the prior week in its 8-K filings with the SEC. Strategy also posts these updates on its website and on X.com. The May 25 to May 31 filing is scheduled for June 1 at 08:00 ET.
Resolving this market before the MSTR 8-K filing for May 25 to May 31 is available is premature. The proposal should wait until the relevant MSTR filing has been published.
**On-Chain Data:**
Significant on-chain activity occurred on Friday May 29, 2026 involving Strategy's wallets and its custodians.
**(1) **481,766.89 BTC of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings, spread across ~1,600 wallet addresses, are tracked on Arkham.
On Friday May 29, Arkham shows on-chain Bitcoin transactions involving Strategy's wallets and Coinbase Prime, including two outgoing transactions from Strategy of ~206 BTC and ~205 BTC, totalling 411.48 BTC.
Prior to Friday May 29, no outflow from Strategy-tracked wallets to Coinbase Prime had been detected for 3.5 years, since the last time Strategy sold Bitcoin on December 22, 2022 at 21:22:35 UTC.
Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/microstrategy
**(2) **Arkham’s Strategy holdings page states: “Note: MicroStrategy has sent over 183,887 BTC to Fidelity Custody.”
On Friday May 29, Arkham showed a major combined ~24,619.94 BTC Fidelity Custody outflow to external wallets, spread over 25 large transactions between 586 BTC and 1,164 BTC, valued at ~$1.8 billion.
Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/fidelity-custody
**P4 : Too Early**
The rules say: “This market will resolve to YES if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data.”
**Rationale:**
The resolution criteria are based on whether a Bitcoin sale occurred before May 31 at 11:59 PM ET. This is an event-based market. The rules do not say that the sale must be announced before that deadline.
Strategy Inc. consistently reports Bitcoin activity, including buys and/or sales of bitcoin, for the prior week in its 8-K filings with the SEC. Strategy also posts these updates on its website and on X.com. The May 25 to May 31 filing is scheduled for June 1 at 08:00 ET.
Resolving this market before the MSTR 8-K filing for May 25 to May 31 is available is premature. The proposal should wait until the relevant MSTR filing has been published.
**On-Chain Data:**
Significant on-chain activity occurred on Friday May 29, 2026 involving Strategy's wallets and its custodians.
**(1) **481,766.89 BTC of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings, spread across ~1,600 wallet addresses, are tracked on Arkham.
On Friday May 29, Arkham shows on-chain Bitcoin transactions involving Strategy's wallets and Coinbase Prime, including two outgoing transactions from Strategy of ~206 BTC and ~205 BTC, totalling 411.48 BTC.
Prior to Friday May 29, no outflow from Strategy-tracked wallets to Coinbase Prime had been detected for 3.5 years, since the last time Strategy sold Bitcoin on December 22, 2022 at 21:22:35 UTC.
Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/microstrategy
**(2) **Arkham’s Strategy holdings page states: “Note: MicroStrategy has sent over 183,887 BTC to Fidelity Custody.”
On Friday May 29, Arkham showed a major combined ~24,619.94 BTC Fidelity Custody outflow to external wallets, spread over 25 large transactions between 586 BTC and 1,164 BTC, valued at ~$1.8 billion.
Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/fidelity-custody
it's just a technicality, it's ending 31 may because in the next 3 days we should observe their reports and see if they really sold, until then it's P4 unironically, it's too early to judge
it's just a technicality, it's ending 31 may because in the next 3 days we should observe their reports and see if they really sold, until then it's P4 unironically, it's too early to judge
This same happened on December 31st right and no P4 arguments were supported at the end, how come you are saying there's no deadline? 11:59 PM ET May 31 is indeed a deadline same as Dec 31 11:59 PM ET
This same happened on December 31st right and no P4 arguments were supported at the end, how come you are saying there's no deadline? 11:59 PM ET May 31 is indeed a deadline same as Dec 31 11:59 PM ET
I stand by this and honestly think that the fairest resolution is P1. The rules ask for the deadline of 31 May, it has passed. There is no waiting clause. Past precedent supports P1. (This doesnt mean I dont think that they didnt sell, I would have preferred the rules to allow a waiting clause)
I stand by this and honestly think that the fairest resolution is P1. The rules ask for the deadline of 31 May, it has passed. There is no waiting clause. Past precedent supports P1. (This doesnt mean I dont think that they didnt sell, I would have preferred the rules to allow a waiting clause)
and others might still pan out
and others might still pan out
On 1st September MicroStrategy did buy BTC, but didnt publish 8k form in time. There was no word “announce” in name of the market or rules. Despite this, market was resolved to NO —> Mustafa came this clarification:
Per the market rules, "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title." A qualifying announcement must be made within the market timeframe, regardless of when the actual purchase was made.
After that there were lots of markets which were resolved before 8k published: because all MS markets are based on announcement. Even “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by” markets in december and March were resolved BEFORE 8k publish.
So, changing this underwritten rule in 1 special case -- means to scam resolutions of all previous markets
On 1st September MicroStrategy did buy BTC, but didnt publish 8k form in time. There was no word “announce” in name of the market or rules. Despite this, market was resolved to NO —> Mustafa came this clarification:
Per the market rules, "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title." A qualifying announcement must be made within the market timeframe, regardless of when the actual purchase was made.
After that there were lots of markets which were resolved before 8k published: because all MS markets are based on announcement. Even “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by” markets in december and March were resolved BEFORE 8k publish.
So, changing this underwritten rule in 1 special case -- means to scam resolutions of all previous markets
i dont realy care who does) But some1 should have fix this a long time ago. I tried several times to notify <@1361217824776786031> or some1 elso on PM side to prevent this situation
i dont realy care who does) But some1 should have fix this a long time ago. I tried several times to notify <@1361217824776786031> or some1 elso on PM side to prevent this situation
Per the market rules, "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title." A qualifying announcement must be made within the market timeframe, regardless of when the actual purchase was made.
Per the market rules, "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title." A qualifying announcement must be made within the market timeframe, regardless of when the actual purchase was made.
What are we even waiting for why is it at 15c?
What are we even waiting for why is it at 15c?
this isprecedent vro imcrine
this isprecedent vro imcrine
Its bondin time
Its bondin time
this has quite literally never counted lol
this has quite literally never counted lol
the old rules had announces, the new rules dont
the old rules had announces, the new rules dont
They don't have announce in title, wym?
They don't have announce in title, wym?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.
this is for sept market
this is for sept market
Yeah the rules are the same
Yeah the rules are the same
"if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired"
"if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired"
announces were added to the rules AFTER clarification. Before clarification there were no word announce in the rules
announces were added to the rules AFTER clarification. Before clarification there were no word announce in the rules
what?
what?