lol didn't realize manipulation was acknowledged
lol didn't realize manipulation was acknowledged
2026-06-14 · Polymarket · 207 条相关讨论
lol didn't realize manipulation was acknowledged
lol didn't realize manipulation was acknowledged
guys, share some alpha
guys, share some alpha
which side are they manipulating
which side are they manipulating
up or down
up or down
Any side they feel like
Any side they feel like
Ok but even if you believe in "manipulating" look at it as random noise in whatever strategy you're doing. It will end 50/50 up or down so manipulating will be in your favor or not 50% of the time.
Ok but even if you believe in "manipulating" look at it as random noise in whatever strategy you're doing. It will end 50/50 up or down so manipulating will be in your favor or not 50% of the time.
I heard someone manipulated the weather the other day. I went outside expecting a heat wave and it was freezing. Lies.
I heard someone manipulated the weather the other day. I went outside expecting a heat wave and it was freezing. Lies.
Up and down
Up and down
tbf it is 50/50 the manipulations
tbf it is 50/50 the manipulations
yall just cant accept normal variance
yall just cant accept normal variance
btc 5m has been so fucking boring bro
btc 5m has been so fucking boring bro
i miss the manipulations
i miss the manipulations
if we assume variance of BTC changes randomly and is not dependent on every 5 minute window, then we should be able to quantify manipulation by simply checking if statistically more boundary crosses occur in the final 5 seconds of a window as compared to any other 5 seconds in that window. there is surely enough data now collected for anyone to run this analysis.
if we assume variance of BTC changes randomly and is not dependent on every 5 minute window, then we should be able to quantify manipulation by simply checking if statistically more boundary crosses occur in the final 5 seconds of a window as compared to any other 5 seconds in that window. there is surely enough data now collected for anyone to run this analysis.
maybe something like P(cross in next 5s)=f(∣distance∣,σ,volume,spread,time-of-day,final_5s), however we still have to measure the stat significance/zscore of such results to differentiate and find the R^2 impact that manipulation has on these results. Depending on how bad it is, the most we'd be able to ascertain is how much impact manipulation has on the overall bunch of reversals and not every specific instance of manipulation.
maybe something like P(cross in next 5s)=f(∣distance∣,σ,volume,spread,time-of-day,final_5s), however we still have to measure the stat significance/zscore of such results to differentiate and find the R^2 impact that manipulation has on these results. Depending on how bad it is, the most we'd be able to ascertain is how much impact manipulation has on the overall bunch of reversals and not every specific instance of manipulation.
i believe that P is simply a sigmoid and is basically analogous to the fair value model of the midprice (z score using those params). my suggestion was simply for a proof of existence. since some people do not believe it exists
i believe that P is simply a sigmoid and is basically analogous to the fair value model of the midprice (z score using those params). my suggestion was simply for a proof of existence. since some people do not believe it exists
proof of existence of manipulation?
proof of existence of manipulation?
how is that in dispute
how is that in dispute
its obvious
its obvious
mustafa above
mustafa above
he said it was hardest to manipulate, which for the most part is true
he said it was hardest to manipulate, which for the most part is true