Baseline ambiguity after bulletin update — Russian Duma “most seats gained” market
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election
Multiple users have raised the same issue: which baseline should be used for United Russia’s current seat count?
This matters because there are two possible numbers:
* DumaTV / official faction reference: around 325 seats
* Vacancy-adjusted Duma page: around 311–312 seats, because some mandates are currently vacant
The latest bulletin appears to confirm the key point: the market should resolve using the party’s seat count as per source such as dumatv.ru/fractions used in case of ambiguity.
That supports using the official faction-count methodology, not a lower vacancy-adjusted snapshot.
Baseline ambiguity after bulletin update — Russian Duma “most seats gained” market
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election
Multiple users have raised the same issue: which baseline should be used for United Russia’s current seat count?
This matters because there are two possible numbers:
* DumaTV / official faction reference: around 325 seats
* Vacancy-adjusted Duma page: around 311–312 seats, because some mandates are currently vacant
The latest bulletin appears to confirm the key point: the market should resolve using the party’s seat count as per source such as dumatv.ru/fractions used in case of ambiguity.
That supports using the official faction-count methodology, not a lower vacancy-adjusted snapshot.
If the DumaTV-style reference is used, the market remains competitive. But if the lower vacancy-adjusted number is used, United Russia becomes almost mechanically favored, because it gets artificial “gains” from refilling seats that were already won / controlled by United Russia or pro-United Russia single-mandate deputies during the term.
Why the lower vacancy-adjusted number should not be used:
* The bulletin points to outgoing party/faction seat count and official Duma media sources such as DumaTV.
* Vacant mandates are not a party competing in this market.
* The lower number reflects interim vacancies, not true party seat losses.
* Many of those vacancies appear to come from United Russia / pro-United Russia single-mandate seats.
* Counting vacancies as lost seats converts “vacancy recovery” into “seat gains.”
* Since the next Duma will have all 450 seats filled, using a vacancy-adjusted baseline would mechanically credit United Russia for refilling empty seats.
* If vacant seats were intended to affect the market, the rules would need explicit treatment for vacant / unfilled mandates. There is no “other” option nor market says “gained-filled” seats
* most importantly: if we count vacancy recovery as seat gains, then United Russia has effectively managed to engineer the Polymarket election too.😩
Requested interpretation: please apply the latest bulletin consistently and use the official outgoing faction-count source/methodology, rather than a lower vacancy-adjusted snapshot that would artificially reduce United Russia’s baseline.
If the DumaTV-style reference is used, the market remains competitive. But if the lower vacancy-adjusted number is used, United Russia becomes almost mechanically favored, because it gets artificial “gains” from refilling seats that were already won / controlled by United Russia or pro-United Russia single-mandate deputies during the term.
Why the lower vacancy-adjusted number should not be used:
* The bulletin points to outgoing party/faction seat count and official Duma media sources such as DumaTV.
* Vacant mandates are not a party competing in this market.
* The lower number reflects interim vacancies, not true party seat losses.
* Many of those vacancies appear to come from United Russia / pro-United Russia single-mandate seats.
* Counting vacancies as lost seats converts “vacancy recovery” into “seat gains.”
* Since the next Duma will have all 450 seats filled, using a vacancy-adjusted baseline would mechanically credit United Russia for refilling empty seats.
* If vacant seats were intended to affect the market, the rules would need explicit treatment for vacant / unfilled mandates. There is no “other” option nor market says “gained-filled” seats
* most importantly: if we count vacancy recovery as seat gains, then United Russia has effectively managed to engineer the Polymarket election too.😩
Requested interpretation: please apply the latest bulletin consistently and use the official outgoing faction-count source/methodology, rather than a lower vacancy-adjusted snapshot that would artificially reduce United Russia’s baseline.
Use one reference for the baseline # of seats - the source referenced in the rules of market, is dumatv/fractions. To avoid disputes and artificial counts
Use one reference for the baseline # of seats - the source referenced in the rules of market, is dumatv/fractions. To avoid disputes and artificial counts
will be the vacancy adjusted
will be the vacancy adjusted
Why then was it not clarified? If so, ER is 100% and all others are scammed
Why then was it not clarified? If so, ER is 100% and all others are scammed
They are definitely not clarifying this
They are definitely not clarifying this
why do u think all the poly sharps are slamming ER
why do u think all the poly sharps are slamming ER
what is er
what is er
It's like hiding context to create a trap. If this is the way Poly works, then ok.
It's like hiding context to create a trap. If this is the way Poly works, then ok.
its clarified to seats at the day before election which is what is actually there
its clarified to seats at the day before election which is what is actually there
no ER is russian election bet
no ER is russian election bet
ohhh
ohhh
that guy has misread the rules
that guy has misread the rules
😭 i was googling it lol
😭 i was googling it lol
for russian election stuff
Podcast was with polyfactual its on x
for russian election stuff
Podcast was with polyfactual its on x
just talking bout gamboolin
man i love gamboliin
just talking bout gamboolin
man i love gamboliin
what is ER?
what is ER?
United russia
United russia