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气候市场因 Weather Company 数据源不透明引发结算争议

2026-07-13 · Kalshi · 28 条相关讨论

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:10:23

I'm curious how the temp are deterined for the climate thing. Shortly before the hour mark, the hourly showed it dip for a moment to 67. The price on the 68 one tanked to 1 cent before the hour closed. The hourly showed it did bounce back up to 88 before the hour mark

I'm curious how the temp are deterined for the climate thing. Shortly before the hour mark, the hourly showed it dip for a moment to 67. The price on the 68 one tanked to 1 cent before the hour closed. The hourly showed it did bounce back up to 88 before the hour mark

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:11:54

The result is penidng, but I would expect if it tanked because people reading it dip for a moment at the 53m mark, then it should still win out for coming back to temp before the hour. Even if the price went to 1 cent

The result is penidng, but I would expect if it tanked because people reading it dip for a moment at the 53m mark, then it should still win out for coming back to temp before the hour. Even if the price went to 1 cent

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:13:09

That is the national weather service the climate things used to be based on. Not sure how the weather company decies thing

That is the national weather service the climate things used to be based on. Not sure how the weather company decies thing

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:14:25

Before the hour mark was reached, it's price went to 1 cent really fast somehow. Market manipluation?

Before the hour mark was reached, it's price went to 1 cent really fast somehow. Market manipluation?

ѕησωу∂яαgση 2026-07-13 01:15:16

<#871820262327341067> prob a better place to ask, a lot of smart weather ppl in there!

<#871820262327341067> prob a better place to ask, a lot of smart weather ppl in there!

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:16:55

Everyone is in the same place and would eel tedious repeating it. I'll see what the ruling is on it, since even if whatever causes things to instantly tank in price did that to it, the weather service showed those who zeroed it's price jumped the gun

Everyone is in the same place and would eel tedious repeating it. I'll see what the ruling is on it, since even if whatever causes things to instantly tank in price did that to it, the weather service showed those who zeroed it's price jumped the gun

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:19:06

It is mysterous how suddenly things drop to 1 cent really fast, before it should even be decided. If it's the temp at the end of the hour, to soon to call. If it'ss what it was most of the time, 88

It is mysterous how suddenly things drop to 1 cent really fast, before it should even be decided. If it's the temp at the end of the hour, to soon to call. If it'ss what it was most of the time, 88

ѕησωу∂яαgση 2026-07-13 01:19:49

im not very experienced w/ climate markets so take wut i'm saying w/ a grain of salt, but iirc some ppl have bots that get minute by minute updates or smth

im not very experienced w/ climate markets so take wut i'm saying w/ a grain of salt, but iirc some ppl have bots that get minute by minute updates or smth

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:19:51

How can people or system know 5 minutes before the end of the hour what the temp will be then

How can people or system know 5 minutes before the end of the hour what the temp will be then

ѕησωу∂яαgση 2026-07-13 01:21:55

i could be wrong on this, but it seems the market is going by the jourly :53 observations

i could be wrong on this, but it seems the market is going by the jourly :53 observations

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:25:03

Weather company graph versus national weather service. Weather company doesn't show it ever reached 78. The other clearly shows it was 78 at the hour mark. Is the weather company even legit?

Weather company graph versus national weather service. Weather company doesn't show it ever reached 78. The other clearly shows it was 78 at the hour mark. Is the weather company even legit?

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:25:56

I don't mind taking huge losses when I was wrong, but I was right. The temp was exactly as I expect

I don't mind taking huge losses when I was wrong, but I was right. The temp was exactly as I expect

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:26:54

Now since we have "weather company", who we've used for climate temp data untl now is seen as invalid compare to their simpllistic who knows what method

Now since we have "weather company", who we've used for climate temp data untl now is seen as invalid compare to their simpllistic who knows what method

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:27:14

Now I feel the temp is just chosen random

Now I feel the temp is just chosen random

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:28:56

THis should resolve to my favor

THis should resolve to my favor

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:29:57

The system brinigng things down to 1 cent when it plans to give a bad judgement, makes me not have my hopes high

The system brinigng things down to 1 cent when it plans to give a bad judgement, makes me not have my hopes high

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:30:39

Weather company could be more transparent with their data, where can see moment by moment tenp like the other

Weather company could be more transparent with their data, where can see moment by moment tenp like the other

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:32:18

Just the past day in trades, lost way bigger amounts than that in single trades which have went wrong. No complaints there, if I lose $600 and was wrong. The temp was as I predicteed

Just the past day in trades, lost way bigger amounts than that in single trades which have went wrong. No complaints there, if I lose $600 and was wrong. The temp was as I predicteed

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:34:52

I lost $600 on another weather thing last night, not worth mentioing. Since I just bet without paying attention to the weather. Not worth mentioning, since stuff like that happens when you bet without being aware of the actual weather. This annoys more, since I was right even if a way smaller amount

I lost $600 on another weather thing last night, not worth mentioing. Since I just bet without paying attention to the weather. Not worth mentioning, since stuff like that happens when you bet without being aware of the actual weather. This annoys more, since I was right even if a way smaller amount

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:35:44

Now I feel paying attention to the weather doesn't matter so much, since weather company randomly pulls a number

Now I feel paying attention to the weather doesn't matter so much, since weather company randomly pulls a number

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:38:03

Which raises the question, how did other people know to tank the price 5 minutes ahead of the hour if there is no data avaible to know what they're going to beforehanf

Which raises the question, how did other people know to tank the price 5 minutes ahead of the hour if there is no data avaible to know what they're going to beforehanf

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:39:09

Overall, this hourly weather thing is good; if it used relailble data & was more transparent on how it decides

Overall, this hourly weather thing is good; if it used relailble data & was more transparent on how it decides

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:43:00

They did resolve it as a no, so national weather service which has been used; no longer considered credible compare to black box weather conpany mystery numbers

They did resolve it as a no, so national weather service which has been used; no longer considered credible compare to black box weather conpany mystery numbers

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:44:23

If I were to make a suggestion, drop teh weather company asap

If I were to make a suggestion, drop teh weather company asap

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:45:57

More transparency in the mechanic behind things instanlty dropping to 1 cent, before anyone has time to know what happened or even is possible for a result yet. If it's the temp at the end of the hour, why was it tanked 5 min before the hour ended? It's not just normal traders who can instantly drop the market like that

More transparency in the mechanic behind things instanlty dropping to 1 cent, before anyone has time to know what happened or even is possible for a result yet. If it's the temp at the end of the hour, why was it tanked 5 min before the hour ended? It's not just normal traders who can instantly drop the market like that

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:46:36

Goes to prove, it's not the temp at the end of the hour used. The temp at the end doesn't matter, they decide before it's over

Goes to prove, it's not the temp at the end of the hour used. The temp at the end doesn't matter, they decide before it's over

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:47:15

Unless they leak what they are going to say to a ton of traders ahead of time, it's them preemptly tanking it when they decide they are going to resolve it as a no

Unless they leak what they are going to say to a ton of traders ahead of time, it's them preemptly tanking it when they decide they are going to resolve it as a no

Anarch 2026-07-13 01:49:56

Maybe the incentives will balance it out on that one. Doesn't make me want to play to bet without relaying on that after what happened

Maybe the incentives will balance it out on that one. Doesn't make me want to play to bet without relaying on that after what happened