秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

MLB全明星赛“Shutout”市场规则争议与暂停结算问题

2026-07-15 · Kalshi · 346 条相关讨论

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:28:07

Markets team is incompetent so they will assume that it being 1c means the market unambiguously decided that the game was over before it was said or something. They price resolve everything just like Ex. Scam all day if unpaused it would go Y clearly

Markets team is incompetent so they will assume that it being 1c means the market unambiguously decided that the game was over before it was said or something. They price resolve everything just like Ex. Scam all day if unpaused it would go Y clearly

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 11:28:45

What broadcast does kalshi base it off of?

What broadcast does kalshi base it off of?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:28:52

i'm not on Y because there's no argument

i'm not on Y because there's no argument

miked255 2026-07-15 11:28:56

I think if this was still open it might go 50/50????

I think if this was still open it might go 50/50????

SJ 2026-07-15 11:28:58

I think you can’t ex post facto so well he can tell he was out or caught the ball so it was out then

I think you can’t ex post facto so well he can tell he was out or caught the ball so it was out then

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:29:02

true, that's why I have 200k mentions pnl

true, that's why I have 200k mentions pnl

SJ 2026-07-15 11:29:04

The ref could make an incorrect call

The ref could make an incorrect call

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:29:07

https://klipy.com/gifs/braindead-cat

https://klipy.com/gifs/braindead-cat

miked255 2026-07-15 11:29:14

There is actually a very good Y arguement, and I got stuck holding some N on the pause

There is actually a very good Y arguement, and I got stuck holding some N on the pause

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:29:29

and ask him to unpause it

and ask him to unpause it

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:29:38

7.01(g)(2) — Visiting team ahead: the game ends when the ninth inning is completed — i.e., the third out of the bottom of the 9th. 5.09(b)(4): a runner is out when "he is tagged, when the ball is alive, while off his base." Rule 5.09(a)(10): the batter is out when, "after a third strike or after he hits a fair ball, he or first base is tagged before he touches first base." Rule chain is N

7.01(g)(2) — Visiting team ahead: the game ends when the ninth inning is completed — i.e., the third out of the bottom of the 9th. 5.09(b)(4): a runner is out when "he is tagged, when the ball is alive, while off his base." Rule 5.09(a)(10): the batter is out when, "after a third strike or after he hits a fair ball, he or first base is tagged before he touches first base." Rule chain is N

Winny la Pew 2026-07-15 11:29:39

who's selling at 97

who's selling at 97

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:29:54

the batter is out when the tag occurs

the batter is out when the tag occurs

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:29:57

not when the umpire signals

not when the umpire signals

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:30:01

and the game ends upon 3rd out

and the game ends upon 3rd out

don margiela 2026-07-15 11:30:02

nah thas crazy tho

nah thas crazy tho

sm8989 2026-07-15 11:30:02

fifa congress wants to field a candidate to run against Infantinno in the 2027 fifa presidential eleciton they've said

fifa congress wants to field a candidate to run against Infantinno in the 2027 fifa presidential eleciton they've said

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:30:31

so in a case like this where it's immediately confirmed out, the game retroactively ended on the out itself. If it goes to review, it obviously continues

so in a case like this where it's immediately confirmed out, the game retroactively ended on the out itself. If it goes to review, it obviously continues

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:30:48

Bro how can a game retroactively end

Bro how can a game retroactively end

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:30:50

and the word isn't said till after ump begins signal so irrelevant anyway

and the word isn't said till after ump begins signal so irrelevant anyway

white foldable chair 2026-07-15 11:31:31

what if the ump was signaling for safe

what if the ump was signaling for safe

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:31:33

this is the ref when the word starts being said

this is the ref when the word starts being said

Winny la Pew 2026-07-15 11:31:52

that seems inconclusive to me

that seems inconclusive to me

Winny la Pew 2026-07-15 11:31:57

unless hes at the end of his motion

unless hes at the end of his motion

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:32:03

If we’re taking pics of the refs arm saying “out”, I want the 1c side

If we’re taking pics of the refs arm saying “out”, I want the 1c side

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:32:06

low key....its exact same time

low key....its exact same time

diskoteque 2026-07-15 11:32:17

If market was open this would be like 92 - 8 with a slow bleed and retail crying in ideas

If market was open this would be like 92 - 8 with a slow bleed and retail crying in ideas

diskoteque 2026-07-15 11:32:23

It’s very clear imo

It’s very clear imo

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:32:28

Bs I would slam it

Bs I would slam it

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:32:32

Most of us would

Most of us would

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:32:32

Come on

Come on

sm8989 2026-07-15 11:32:33

a runner is officially out as soon as the conditions for the out are met (e.g., a tag or a force out), regardless of whether the umpire makes a physical signal. The umpire’s verbal "Out!" and hand signal are simply ways to communicate that ruling to the players, fans, and official scorers.

a runner is officially out as soon as the conditions for the out are met (e.g., a tag or a force out), regardless of whether the umpire makes a physical signal. The umpire’s verbal "Out!" and hand signal are simply ways to communicate that ruling to the players, fans, and official scorers.

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:32:41

i wouldnt buy over 3c tbh

i wouldnt buy over 3c tbh

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:32:44

we don't even know that word started before end and finished after end counts

we don't even know that word started before end and finished after end counts

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:32:46

it probably doesn't

it probably doesn't

Lawrence of Andorra 2026-07-15 11:33:18

I'd do it at 5c to counterparty's charity of choice if interested.

I'd do it at 5c to counterparty's charity of choice if interested.

nhelvig 2026-07-15 11:33:21

they gotta stop pausing so quick

they gotta stop pausing so quick

miked255 2026-07-15 11:33:30

I think spirit of the market is game is over when the 1st baseman catches the ball...but if it was like close and got reviewed...then the commentary would still count (i think?)...honestly need more clear rules for almost all sports for "end of game"

I think spirit of the market is game is over when the 1st baseman catches the ball...but if it was like close and got reviewed...then the commentary would still count (i think?)...honestly need more clear rules for almost all sports for "end of game"

Seaborgium- 2026-07-15 11:33:36

The umpire’s signal is the confirmation/recognition/ruling of the out, but the game-ending event is still the out itself.

The umpire’s signal is the confirmation/recognition/ruling of the out, but the game-ending event is still the out itself.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:33:57

this happens in many sports

this happens in many sports

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:34:08

How about this game ends when they say goodbye everyone game is over and everyone gets off the field

How about this game ends when they say goodbye everyone game is over and everyone gets off the field

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:34:11

e.g. NFL game is over when ball hits the ground on the final play, not when the ref runs up and signals incomplete

e.g. NFL game is over when ball hits the ground on the final play, not when the ref runs up and signals incomplete

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:34:17

but if it's under review, continues

but if it's under review, continues

Winny la Pew 2026-07-15 11:34:28

But is an out an out until is has been confirmed? Does anyone hear a tree falling in the woods?

But is an out an out until is has been confirmed? Does anyone hear a tree falling in the woods?

Nate 2026-07-15 11:34:29

yes, if the play went to review then commentary would count up to the point where the ump announces the result of the review and ends the game

yes, if the play went to review then commentary would count up to the point where the ump announces the result of the review and ends the game

Stephen B 2026-07-15 11:34:29

Yep 😂 takes 1 second to make clear rules but they never will

Yep 😂 takes 1 second to make clear rules but they never will

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:34:43

what do you mean! It's obviously-

what do you mean! It's obviously-

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:34:44

(the reason is i wanna be skinny szn)

(the reason is i wanna be skinny szn)

Nate 2026-07-15 11:34:52

https://klipy.com/gifs/changes-changed

https://klipy.com/gifs/changes-changed

SJ 2026-07-15 11:35:05

So wdyt should happen if they pause for 10 seconds to signal but there is no actual review

So wdyt should happen if they pause for 10 seconds to signal but there is no actual review

SJ 2026-07-15 11:35:13

Say on a hail mary

Say on a hail mary

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:35:25

the out isnt official until its ruled

the out isnt official until its ruled

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:35:34

foid doesnt help sorry jackson

foid doesnt help sorry jackson

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:35:35

good thing he signals out before it's said anyway

good thing he signals out before it's said anyway

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:35:41

debatable!

debatable!

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:35:58

Wut if the announcers have a delayed audio feed??

Wut if the announcers have a delayed audio feed??

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:36:10

Uh. Yeah. If the umpire hasn’t decided, wouldn’t it be under review? It’s not like a clear incompletion in football, which is either clear or halted for video review. Idg how it’s analogous.

Uh. Yeah. If the umpire hasn’t decided, wouldn’t it be under review? It’s not like a clear incompletion in football, which is either clear or halted for video review. Idg how it’s analogous.

clermontcheetah 2026-07-15 11:36:27

it should be over after the final swing

it should be over after the final swing

clermontcheetah 2026-07-15 11:36:36

in the spirit of the greenbox

in the spirit of the greenbox

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:36:42

hard to say - like if refs come together to discuss and then make a ruling... But that would probably have a review anyway. I think the actual bar used for res is "if signaled immediately, it's on the play, if not signaled immediately it is on signal/end of review"

hard to say - like if refs come together to discuss and then make a ruling... But that would probably have a review anyway. I think the actual bar used for res is "if signaled immediately, it's on the play, if not signaled immediately it is on signal/end of review"

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 11:36:42

The out isnt confirmed clearly at the moment they said shut out the score isn’t finalized. Technically at that moment the play could have been challenged or anything we don’t know. So the game isn’t officially over until score is final.

The out isnt confirmed clearly at the moment they said shut out the score isn’t finalized. Technically at that moment the play could have been challenged or anything we don’t know. So the game isn’t officially over until score is final.

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:37:01

Man. That was wild we sat next to each other courtsiding Bernie.

Man. That was wild we sat next to each other courtsiding Bernie.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:37:05

the call was unambiguously clear

the call was unambiguously clear

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:37:11

Shutout N damn that was fast

Shutout N damn that was fast

miked255 2026-07-15 11:37:11

No this was for if it went to a swingoff (which you wouldn't have even known existed until after the game ended!!!) hah

No this was for if it went to a swingoff (which you wouldn't have even known existed until after the game ended!!!) hah

don margiela 2026-07-15 11:37:16

u cudda gotten more

u cudda gotten more

SJ 2026-07-15 11:37:38

It could easily be incorrectly called e.g.

It could easily be incorrectly called e.g.

Azuul 2026-07-15 11:37:44

🤝

🤝

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 11:37:57

come to kalshicord

come to kalshicord

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:38:46

you should take this up with the MLB rule writers, who said that it's over when ball hits glove

you should take this up with the MLB rule writers, who said that it's over when ball hits glove

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:39:04

proof by snark

proof by snark

Lawrence of Andorra 2026-07-15 11:39:04

How would you define the call - perhaps the point at which the determination becomes clear? (So not necessarily at the beginning of any movement)

How would you define the call - perhaps the point at which the determination becomes clear? (So not necessarily at the beginning of any movement)

Nate 2026-07-15 11:39:06

someone warned him about the shutout strike a few hours ago... but didn't expect this

someone warned him about the shutout strike a few hours ago... but didn't expect this

SJ 2026-07-15 11:39:21

That's akin to saying Galarraga game ended because the ball hit the glove IMO

That's akin to saying Galarraga game ended because the ball hit the glove IMO

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:39:29

https://klipy.com/gifs/psycho-shower

https://klipy.com/gifs/psycho-shower

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:39:32

What if ball hits glove, he’s clearly out, but I the umpire call him safe? And then they review it and he’s out? Then what?

What if ball hits glove, he’s clearly out, but I the umpire call him safe? And then they review it and he’s out? Then what?

SJ 2026-07-15 11:39:32

It's technically the call of what happened, not what physically happened

It's technically the call of what happened, not what physically happened

miked255 2026-07-15 11:39:42

Turns out I was right, just not in the way i thought i would be lol

Turns out I was right, just not in the way i thought i would be lol

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:39:42

then it's a review and commentary counts

then it's a review and commentary counts

tylerperrystein 2026-07-15 11:39:53

because its in clear ump review

because its in clear ump review

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:39:53

But ball hit glove! Final out!

But ball hit glove! Final out!

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:40:05

I totally agree

I totally agree

white foldable chair 2026-07-15 11:40:07

theres no clear cut way of being right here under the current ruleset

theres no clear cut way of being right here under the current ruleset

Nate 2026-07-15 11:40:26

if it goes to review, then commentary during the review counts up till the ump announces the final decision ending the game. the rules do cover that

if it goes to review, then commentary during the review counts up till the ump announces the final decision ending the game. the rules do cover that

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:40:44

kalshi rules say commentary stops counting upon conclusion of game OR conclusion of review, if a review occurs MLB rules says game ended when ball hit glove, and there was no review so that is when commentary stops counting

kalshi rules say commentary stops counting upon conclusion of game OR conclusion of review, if a review occurs MLB rules says game ended when ball hit glove, and there was no review so that is when commentary stops counting

white foldable chair 2026-07-15 11:40:48

this is all going in the supreme court case when they ban prediction markets

this is all going in the supreme court case when they ban prediction markets

miked255 2026-07-15 11:40:51

Yeah this is correct, you can make a pretty equal arguement either way (but lawrence point of what if you cant see the ump maybe sways it?)

Yeah this is correct, you can make a pretty equal arguement either way (but lawrence point of what if you cant see the ump maybe sways it?)

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:41:51

just a clear N anyway

just a clear N anyway

white foldable chair 2026-07-15 11:41:59

it should end on the umpire signal or right when the umpire says [runner is] "out" on a replay for last out

it should end on the umpire signal or right when the umpire says [runner is] "out" on a replay for last out

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:42:04

he unambiguously signals the out prior to beginning of speech, and completes the signal before the end of speech

he unambiguously signals the out prior to beginning of speech, and completes the signal before the end of speech

Lawrence of Andorra 2026-07-15 11:42:11

But following that line of thought pretty quickly devolves into absurdity

But following that line of thought pretty quickly devolves into absurdity

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:42:17

if signal came in way later then it'd be more interesting

if signal came in way later then it'd be more interesting

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:42:22

but there's really no cuck here

but there's really no cuck here

miked255 2026-07-15 11:42:23

Its really not and I got stuck holding some N on the pause

Its really not and I got stuck holding some N on the pause

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:42:46

it's not that hard, the end of game is retroactive

it's not that hard, the end of game is retroactive

Tronic_fade Xbox 2026-07-15 11:42:47

I used a promo when signing up

I used a promo when signing up

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:42:50

Yeah. This is the scenario I mean. Like. Clear delay.

Yeah. This is the scenario I mean. Like. Clear delay.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:43:01

if a signal is immediately replaced by another

if a signal is immediately replaced by another

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:43:04

then obviously you go with that

then obviously you go with that

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:43:10

and the end of game is retroactive as necessary

and the end of game is retroactive as necessary

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:43:25

But why isn’t it retroactive when the umpire makes a blatantly wrong call? Final out obviously occurred. There just wasn’t an out signal yet.

But why isn’t it retroactive when the umpire makes a blatantly wrong call? Final out obviously occurred. There just wasn’t an out signal yet.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:43:30

but again, it doesn't matter because it's after signal anyway

but again, it doesn't matter because it's after signal anyway

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:43:52

I disagree. Everyone knows this about NFL. A football game is never over if this occurs.

I disagree. Everyone knows this about NFL. A football game is never over if this occurs.

miked255 2026-07-15 11:44:12

Powerade or Lenovo tmrw to make back the allstar game loss? haha

Powerade or Lenovo tmrw to make back the allstar game loss? haha

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:44:31

I don’t get this guy

I don’t get this guy

don margiela 2026-07-15 11:46:34

i think its becuz i placed a trade

i think its becuz i placed a trade

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:46:34

It makes no sense to say it’s retroactive for out signal but not safe signal. Either the game ended on the out or it didn’t. I’m not even talking Kalshi rules, I’m talking about MLBs end game definition simply for the love of autism

It makes no sense to say it’s retroactive for out signal but not safe signal. Either the game ended on the out or it didn’t. I’m not even talking Kalshi rules, I’m talking about MLBs end game definition simply for the love of autism

Lawrence of Andorra 2026-07-15 11:47:19

What is your current understanding of when this game ended?

What is your current understanding of when this game ended?

ELPEPE 2026-07-15 11:47:49

Appreciate you checking <@1417220501407011020> cheers

Appreciate you checking <@1417220501407011020> cheers

miked255 2026-07-15 11:50:14

Slow it down, says shutout before/maybe at the very start of the out signal

Slow it down, says shutout before/maybe at the very start of the out signal

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:50:23

How does rig make income? I do not understand this person. I’d like to know.

How does rig make income? I do not understand this person. I’d like to know.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:50:24

ump's arms definitely move first

ump's arms definitely move first

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:50:36

the sssssss- starts as he's moving his arms to the out position

the sssssss- starts as he's moving his arms to the out position

don margiela 2026-07-15 11:50:42

but i already fullported but i lost 4$ cuz i immediately cashedout

but i already fullported but i lost 4$ cuz i immediately cashedout

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:50:45

and then he's clearly signalled out by the time it becomes recognizable as "shut"

and then he's clearly signalled out by the time it becomes recognizable as "shut"

don margiela 2026-07-15 11:50:47

still wudnt let me withdraw

still wudnt let me withdraw

miked255 2026-07-15 11:51:08

Yeah, its actually very close, might be at the same time actually which makes it all even funnier

Yeah, its actually very close, might be at the same time actually which makes it all even funnier

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:52:47

yes, if it was reviewed the game "continues" for the purposes of this market

yes, if it was reviewed the game "continues" for the purposes of this market

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:52:58

to the league, they don't care about the exact second the game was over

to the league, they don't care about the exact second the game was over

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:53:06

to them, the game retroactively ended the moment the final out was made

to them, the game retroactively ended the moment the final out was made

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:53:09

whether it was reviewed or not

whether it was reviewed or not

Nate 2026-07-15 11:53:16

isn't this just the "if a tree falls in the woods" question?

isn't this just the "if a tree falls in the woods" question?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:53:19

even if it WAS reviewed, the game "ended" at that moment

even if it WAS reviewed, the game "ended" at that moment

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:53:34

No that question is dumb, of course it makes a sound

No that question is dumb, of course it makes a sound

kelper 2026-07-15 11:53:59

Why does it matter if you think the game is clearly over or not, an official needs to signal

Why does it matter if you think the game is clearly over or not, an official needs to signal

Nate 2026-07-15 11:54:02

right and the game ends when the final out is made

right and the game ends when the final out is made

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:54:06

Oh. For sure. Yes. I’m totally unconcerned w that. Ppl seem to think it’s p clear.

Oh. For sure. Yes. I’m totally unconcerned w that. Ppl seem to think it’s p clear.

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:54:23

But. In both my examples. The final out is made?

But. In both my examples. The final out is made?

j45674r22 2026-07-15 11:54:27

i see thank you! so if you put in a sell limit order for 10 yes contracts at 90 - 10 shares will be posted on the ask at 90 for yes *and* 10 shares will be posted on the bid at 10 for no?

i see thank you! so if you put in a sell limit order for 10 yes contracts at 90 - 10 shares will be posted on the ask at 90 for yes *and* 10 shares will be posted on the bid at 10 for no?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:55:06

but if he never signalled then the game implicitly continues in perpetuity, right?

but if he never signalled then the game implicitly continues in perpetuity, right?

Nate 2026-07-15 11:55:18

this channel, and mention markets in general, regularly devolve into silly rules debates. its just the culture here

this channel, and mention markets in general, regularly devolve into silly rules debates. its just the culture here

kelper 2026-07-15 11:55:26

Ina a perfect world yes it shouldn’t matter how obvious the play is

Ina a perfect world yes it shouldn’t matter how obvious the play is

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 11:55:55

this is why we shouldn't live resolve

this is why we shouldn't live resolve

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:56:00

netflix had way more fair value than this

netflix had way more fair value than this

miked255 2026-07-15 11:56:07

Im not sure what you are saying lol, i think you can make a pretty equal arguement either way...game ends when 1st baseman catches ball or game ends when up officially signals the out

Im not sure what you are saying lol, i think you can make a pretty equal arguement either way...game ends when 1st baseman catches ball or game ends when up officially signals the out

bumper 2026-07-15 11:56:15

the umpire signals the out

the umpire signals the out

kelper 2026-07-15 11:56:19

But this is a pointless debate since shut out wasn’t finished until after the signal was clear

But this is a pointless debate since shut out wasn’t finished until after the signal was clear

bumper 2026-07-15 11:56:21

but it happens when the player is tagged

but it happens when the player is tagged

bumper 2026-07-15 11:56:31

or base is touched

or base is touched

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:56:39

in an abstract sense, i'm fine with that conceptually

in an abstract sense, i'm fine with that conceptually

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:56:43

it's just not relevant here

it's just not relevant here

miked255 2026-07-15 11:56:52

hypothetically i agree

hypothetically i agree

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:56:54

because the game ended before the signal, and even if it did end on the signal it's still N

because the game ended before the signal, and even if it did end on the signal it's still N

kelper 2026-07-15 11:57:07

What if it “happens” but the ump signals safe. Why does it matter what you think

What if it “happens” but the ump signals safe. Why does it matter what you think

miked255 2026-07-15 11:57:28

Ok, but what if it was a closer call and wasnt obvious that the dude was out????

Ok, but what if it was a closer call and wasnt obvious that the dude was out????

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:57:29

https://klipy.com/gifs/trailer-park-boys-the-way-she-goes

https://klipy.com/gifs/trailer-park-boys-the-way-she-goes

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 11:57:50

Simple just make the rules that everything counts until the final score is displayed on the broadcast. As in final being showed next to the score

Simple just make the rules that everything counts until the final score is displayed on the broadcast. As in final being showed next to the score

TopButton 2026-07-15 11:57:55

If there’s no argument in Mentions at 1157p, then something is out of whack

If there’s no argument in Mentions at 1157p, then something is out of whack

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:57:59

then this would be a fun argument 🙂

then this would be a fun argument 🙂

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:58:11

If it was REALLY close

If it was REALLY close

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:58:17

to where it genuinely could go either way

to where it genuinely could go either way

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:58:26

I would probably favor trading Y for vibe reasons

I would probably favor trading Y for vibe reasons

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:58:45

but I don't think we've had a cross-boundary word ruling yet so who fcking knows

but I don't think we've had a cross-boundary word ruling yet so who fcking knows

miked255 2026-07-15 11:58:46

Same, id be worried for you about all the Ns you are holding 😉

Same, id be worried for you about all the Ns you are holding 😉

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:59:01

i don't have all that much

i don't have all that much

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:59:05

I bought a bunch sub 50

I bought a bunch sub 50

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:59:13

but I didn't fill much after game

but I didn't fill much after game

kelper 2026-07-15 11:59:20

If a reasonable person picked at random resolved this it would go Y

If a reasonable person picked at random resolved this it would go Y

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:59:23

but if it was open I'd be willing to buy up to 98 on this

but if it was open I'd be willing to buy up to 98 on this

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 11:59:27

because it's a clear N

because it's a clear N

bumper 2026-07-15 11:59:34

the out happens when he gets tagged out 💀 I think its weird with how kalshi does rules. If a guy gets tagged out and its under review and later (whether call is confirmed or overturned) after review they decide it was in fact an out, the game still ended when the out happened.

the out happens when he gets tagged out 💀 I think its weird with how kalshi does rules. If a guy gets tagged out and its under review and later (whether call is confirmed or overturned) after review they decide it was in fact an out, the game still ended when the out happened.

bumper 2026-07-15 11:59:56

lol whatever forceout same thing

lol whatever forceout same thing

horseplayin 2026-07-15 12:00:08

They shouldn't pause the controversial strikes so quickly

They shouldn't pause the controversial strikes so quickly

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:00:12

yes, this is true. In this case, the kalshi rules explicitly decouple the end of commentary from the "end of game" for that reason lmao

yes, this is true. In this case, the kalshi rules explicitly decouple the end of commentary from the "end of game" for that reason lmao

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:00:18

well the out at 1st is technically a put out not force

well the out at 1st is technically a put out not force

bumper 2026-07-15 12:00:23

wait lowkey and on top of this it is 100% no

wait lowkey and on top of this it is 100% no

miked255 2026-07-15 12:00:33

This is not correct tho, the game would still be "not over" if it was in review and commentary would count

This is not correct tho, the game would still be "not over" if it was in review and commentary would count

bumper 2026-07-15 12:00:52

the game technically ended when out was recorded but we dont know that yet

the game technically ended when out was recorded but we dont know that yet

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:01:07

the game would be retroactively over at the point the out happened, even if it was reviewed Kalshi rules still have commentary count despite this by decoupling from the "end of game" moment

the game would be retroactively over at the point the out happened, even if it was reviewed Kalshi rules still have commentary count despite this by decoupling from the "end of game" moment

bumper 2026-07-15 12:01:08

agreed

agreed

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:01:14

if they didn't decouple, then review would not count

if they didn't decouple, then review would not count

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:01:17

they added that clause

they added that clause

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:01:27

to prevent retroactively having commentary count/not count based on the outcome of the review

to prevent retroactively having commentary count/not count based on the outcome of the review

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:01:34

would make it impossible to trade mentions during the review period

would make it impossible to trade mentions during the review period

miked255 2026-07-15 12:01:38

In this case the game would end after the official review

In this case the game would end after the official review

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:01:48

the out happened we just didnt get it until the ump's mechanics trasncribed it but the out had happened, the mechanics are delayed to just let the official scorer know

the out happened we just didnt get it until the ump's mechanics trasncribed it but the out had happened, the mechanics are delayed to just let the official scorer know

bumper 2026-07-15 12:02:02

this is correct

this is correct

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:02:10

just my interpretation

just my interpretation

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:02:22

There’s no escape

There’s no escape

bumper 2026-07-15 12:02:54

you could be like "the out happened technically" even if he was called safe and play got reviewed and called out. the game ended when the out was recorded even if ump made the mistake which is why kalshi adds the clause of the review to avoid this situation

you could be like "the out happened technically" even if he was called safe and play got reviewed and called out. the game ended when the out was recorded even if ump made the mistake which is why kalshi adds the clause of the review to avoid this situation

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:03:47

yeah in that case it would continue counting

yeah in that case it would continue counting

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:03:57

These answers are satisfactory from mitchie and bumper. I still contend it’s dumb af to say the game ended minutes before the teams know who won the game but hey it’s their leagues.

These answers are satisfactory from mitchie and bumper. I still contend it’s dumb af to say the game ended minutes before the teams know who won the game but hey it’s their leagues.

bumper 2026-07-15 12:04:39

if rules said "commentary stops counting when final out is recorded" without the review clause, the final out was recorded in that moment but not confirmed/reviewed until later

if rules said "commentary stops counting when final out is recorded" without the review clause, the final out was recorded in that moment but not confirmed/reviewed until later

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 12:05:02

You shouldn’t be bonding markets unless you are absolutely 110% certain it is decided imho

You shouldn’t be bonding markets unless you are absolutely 110% certain it is decided imho

Nate 2026-07-15 12:05:02

the game ends on the final play of the game. if the final play takes time for the refs to figure out, that doesn't change when the final play was made

the game ends on the final play of the game. if the final play takes time for the refs to figure out, that doesn't change when the final play was made

M 2026-07-15 12:05:16

Corden not on?

Corden not on?

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 12:06:07

Same thing with people bonding total goal markets for soccer on a goal but then it gets reviewed. That’s risk you take picking up those contracts before it’s 110%

Same thing with people bonding total goal markets for soccer on a goal but then it gets reviewed. That’s risk you take picking up those contracts before it’s 110%

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:06:12

Yeah. And that’s cool. I’m just saying. Wouldn’t it be weird af if the umpire just stood there not making a call for an hour while everyone kept commentating but also the game was already over? Won’t ever happen unless I become an umpire in which case I’m doing this first chance I get. Not for insidering. I would never. Just for the lols.

Yeah. And that’s cool. I’m just saying. Wouldn’t it be weird af if the umpire just stood there not making a call for an hour while everyone kept commentating but also the game was already over? Won’t ever happen unless I become an umpire in which case I’m doing this first chance I get. Not for insidering. I would never. Just for the lols.

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:06:39

how many beers in

how many beers in

Nate 2026-07-15 12:06:46

but the rule in soccer isn't "score counts when the scoreboard updates". my point is that would be a dumb rule

but the rule in soccer isn't "score counts when the scoreboard updates". my point is that would be a dumb rule

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:07:04

This is me, all the time. My wife somehow manages.

This is me, all the time. My wife somehow manages.

jkramer202 2026-07-15 12:07:12

What was Shutout trading at before it got paused?

What was Shutout trading at before it got paused?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:07:12

it just seemed different for you

it just seemed different for you

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:07:26

it was an N farm

it was an N farm

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:07:27

big N bids at 97

big N bids at 97

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:07:29

it still is an N farm lmfao

it still is an N farm lmfao

SJ 2026-07-15 12:07:35

Big Y bids at 95c

Big Y bids at 95c

SJ 2026-07-15 12:07:43

100k Azuul wall

100k Azuul wall

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:07:44

Brain is fried. I’m done trading fr for the day. But this was a fun mental game

Brain is fried. I’m done trading fr for the day. But this was a fun mental game

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:07:46

I would've happily filled like 30k on this in low 90s

I would've happily filled like 30k on this in low 90s

bumper 2026-07-15 12:07:52

<@252554263841079296> how far did price fall?

<@252554263841079296> how far did price fall?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:08:01

and then unbonded to 97

and then unbonded to 97

bumper 2026-07-15 12:08:12

did it ever dip below 90?

did it ever dip below 90?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:08:18

it never dipped below 97

it never dipped below 97

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:08:31

if open it probably would be at 90

if open it probably would be at 90

TavistD 2026-07-15 12:08:49

N got to 88 i thought. but maybe not.

N got to 88 i thought. but maybe not.

Nate 2026-07-15 12:09:51

I got these Ns filled just after it was said and started bouncing around

I got these Ns filled just after it was said and started bouncing around

bumper 2026-07-15 12:10:30

they should really keep this stuff open all night. would be so fun

they should really keep this stuff open all night. would be so fun

capitalgainz 2026-07-15 12:10:56

There is zero reason to keep it open after said event is over

There is zero reason to keep it open after said event is over

Nate 2026-07-15 12:11:19

6 months ago this would have gotten left open all night and we'd be aruging and trading back and forth late into the night

6 months ago this would have gotten left open all night and we'd be aruging and trading back and forth late into the night

polar 2026-07-15 12:11:24

it’s called ~~fees~~ price discovery

it’s called ~~fees~~ price discovery

Nate 2026-07-15 12:11:37

but its probably healthier for the market overall to pause on game end

but its probably healthier for the market overall to pause on game end

darkrider 2026-07-15 12:11:49

not being precise with logical objective explanations PROTECTS price manipulation Willy. Transparency is an expectation of a CFTC regulated exchange - black boxing subjective criteria is at a minimum against the spirit of regulated markets

not being precise with logical objective explanations PROTECTS price manipulation Willy. Transparency is an expectation of a CFTC regulated exchange - black boxing subjective criteria is at a minimum against the spirit of regulated markets

miked255 2026-07-15 12:11:53

Nah, they should give us 1 hour to fight every game out

Nah, they should give us 1 hour to fight every game out

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 12:12:12

man icl this game with the volume it did was so good

man icl this game with the volume it did was so good

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:12:24

at least make it something uniform, i cant stand when its instant and then 30m elsewhere and then overnight elsewhere

at least make it something uniform, i cant stand when its instant and then 30m elsewhere and then overnight elsewhere

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:12:42

im cool with whatever they do just consistent

im cool with whatever they do just consistent

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:12:42

These mlb announcers get volume too now?

These mlb announcers get volume too now?

miked255 2026-07-15 12:12:47

https://klipy.com/gifs/mundo-feliz-onetreehsll

https://klipy.com/gifs/mundo-feliz-onetreehsll

SJ 2026-07-15 12:12:52

Just never pause

Just never pause

miked255 2026-07-15 12:12:55

mentions if we had a 60 min countdown to pause

mentions if we had a 60 min countdown to pause

SJ 2026-07-15 12:13:00

Resolve or keep open

Resolve or keep open

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 12:13:15

all star game right

all star game right

Willy (Kalshi Ops) 🇲🇽 2026-07-15 12:13:17

The transparency is that it is determined at the sole discretion of the exchange.

The transparency is that it is determined at the sole discretion of the exchange.

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:13:29

Oh yeah. Huh. Who cares about that

Oh yeah. Huh. Who cares about that

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:13:32

let bonders provide a service and keep open ami right SJ

let bonders provide a service and keep open ami right SJ

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 12:13:42

true i just liked the EV

true i just liked the EV

sloth 2026-07-15 12:14:02

I just rewatched the prestige

I just rewatched the prestige

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 12:14:04

i watched all of love island and i come away saying its so dookie even tho i made thousands on ts

i watched all of love island and i come away saying its so dookie even tho i made thousands on ts

Willy (Kalshi Ops) 🇲🇽 2026-07-15 12:14:04

There is no further discussion to be had. Kalshi determined the fair value, and its final.

There is no further discussion to be had. Kalshi determined the fair value, and its final.

sloth 2026-07-15 12:14:08

Anyone like that movie

Anyone like that movie

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:14:15

what rank is corden picking tonight for the audience game

what rank is corden picking tonight for the audience game

bumper 2026-07-15 12:14:36

yeah just make a rule. pause a market a certain amount of time after the event ends

yeah just make a rule. pause a market a certain amount of time after the event ends

sloth 2026-07-15 12:14:47

That's hard

That's hard

bumper 2026-07-15 12:14:51

genuinely a good idea instead of random pausing

genuinely a good idea instead of random pausing

sloth 2026-07-15 12:14:56

Cant do it for all markets

Cant do it for all markets

ryzen 2026-07-15 12:15:01

clearly the game officially ended when kalshi paused the market, therefore the strikes were still live

clearly the game officially ended when kalshi paused the market, therefore the strikes were still live

bumper 2026-07-15 12:15:04

agreed bring volume to mlb mentions

agreed bring volume to mlb mentions

bumper 2026-07-15 12:15:20

why not?

why not?

darkrider 2026-07-15 12:15:23

"To determine Fair Market Value, Kalshi considers the most recent stable traded price of the market immediately prior to the relevant announcement, along with trading activity, order book information, and relevant external market data." "There is no further discussion to be had. Kalshi determined the fair value, and its final." Why bother defining Fair Market Value if the attitude is simply "Because we say so"?

"To determine Fair Market Value, Kalshi considers the most recent stable traded price of the market immediately prior to the relevant announcement, along with trading activity, order book information, and relevant external market data." "There is no further discussion to be had. Kalshi determined the fair value, and its final." Why bother defining Fair Market Value if the attitude is simply "Because we say so"?

darkrider 2026-07-15 12:15:56

I'm not sure if those are the rules in the contract - i only copied what you wrote

I'm not sure if those are the rules in the contract - i only copied what you wrote

Nate 2026-07-15 12:16:31

https://x.com/pmwatchus/status/2077240297541558565?s=46&t=IB3gOEgL6fLiKQ4uruCgLw

https://x.com/pmwatchus/status/2077240297541558565?s=46&t=IB3gOEgL6fLiKQ4uruCgLw

Nate 2026-07-15 12:16:42

You can just do off book trades via API?

You can just do off book trades via API?

BigIsh 2026-07-15 12:16:48

Azteca strike for Argentina game would be dope

Azteca strike for Argentina game would be dope

olives 2026-07-15 12:16:53

Imagine the panic fomo at the end of a cuck

Imagine the panic fomo at the end of a cuck

sloth 2026-07-15 12:17:20

No volume

No volume

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:17:43

<@104624321053331456> what's your take

<@104624321053331456> what's your take

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:17:48

and <@849119907077292073>

and <@849119907077292073>

olives 2026-07-15 12:17:56

I don’t have context

I don’t have context

sloth 2026-07-15 12:18:01

Im not trading right now

Im not trading right now

sloth 2026-07-15 12:18:05

Im half asleep tbh

Im half asleep tbh

Willy (Kalshi Ops) 🇲🇽 2026-07-15 12:18:37

I defined it as a courtesy to help you understand some factors that may go into it. The contract specifies that fair market value is determined at the sole discretion of the exchange.

I defined it as a courtesy to help you understand some factors that may go into it. The contract specifies that fair market value is determined at the sole discretion of the exchange.

sloth 2026-07-15 12:18:41

First shutout is what i hear

First shutout is what i hear

olives 2026-07-15 12:18:44

Idunno tbh

Idunno tbh

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:18:51

it's whether it was before the end of the game or not

it's whether it was before the end of the game or not

olives 2026-07-15 12:18:51

I don’t ever watch baseball

I don’t ever watch baseball

SlickWaves 2026-07-15 12:19:06

for the finals

for the finals

sloth 2026-07-15 12:19:07

Not a baseball knower

Not a baseball knower

darkrider 2026-07-15 12:19:34

So its entirely subjective at the whims of the markets team - and they weigh post news trading activity in some part as a determing factor. Do I have that part right?

So its entirely subjective at the whims of the markets team - and they weigh post news trading activity in some part as a determing factor. Do I have that part right?

miked255 2026-07-15 12:19:37

Have you figured out what an alleyoop is yet??? 😉

Have you figured out what an alleyoop is yet??? 😉

olives 2026-07-15 12:20:07

olivbot doesnt need to know bro

olivbot doesnt need to know bro

darkrider 2026-07-15 12:20:11

I say subjective since its black boxed and not allowed to be scrutinized. It might be calculated with objective factors but 'who knows' right?

I say subjective since its black boxed and not allowed to be scrutinized. It might be calculated with objective factors but 'who knows' right?

diskoteque 2026-07-15 12:20:18

this 0.01 bot is putting me on megatilt

this 0.01 bot is putting me on megatilt

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:20:20

nice react <@277656076147752970>

nice react <@277656076147752970>

sm8989 2026-07-15 12:20:25

hit em with the robot

hit em with the robot

Willy (Kalshi Ops) 🇲🇽 2026-07-15 12:20:59

If you have an issue you can reach out to support.

If you have an issue you can reach out to support.

M 2026-07-15 12:21:30

we must ban bots! bad bot boy

we must ban bots! bad bot boy

SJ 2026-07-15 12:23:59

Let's all move to PredictIt

Let's all move to PredictIt

ryzen 2026-07-15 12:24:38

should move to plzjake

should move to plzjake

TopButton 2026-07-15 12:24:59

I hear ADI Predictstreet is where everyone is now

I hear ADI Predictstreet is where everyone is now

olives 2026-07-15 12:25:15

Might as well just trade there tbh

Might as well just trade there tbh

olives 2026-07-15 12:25:23

Give Jake 1% fees

Give Jake 1% fees

olives 2026-07-15 12:25:29

Cut the middleman

Cut the middleman

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:26:15

jakementions™

jakementions™

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:26:22

jake makes a google sheet that we can fill in to trade

jake makes a google sheet that we can fill in to trade

Lawrence of Andorra 2026-07-15 12:46:54

Wow, price collapsing in the after hours market

Wow, price collapsing in the after hours market

Freezuh 2026-07-15 12:48:57

Damn I got priced out

Damn I got priced out

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:49:22

the funny thing <@807477657867649095>

the funny thing <@807477657867649095>

Mitchieboi 2026-07-15 12:49:31

is the ump isn't even on screen when "shutout" finishes being said

is the ump isn't even on screen when "shutout" finishes being said

Winny la Pew 2026-07-15 12:58:07

i wish they'd resolve for all star game

i wish they'd resolve for all star game

Nate 2026-07-15 13:08:34

No reason to talk about him bond No

No reason to talk about him bond No

Nate 2026-07-15 13:08:44

Selling dollars for 1¢

Selling dollars for 1¢

Isaac 2026-07-15 13:16:05

bruh I left my discord window open afk and my mom walked in to this

bruh I left my discord window open afk and my mom walked in to this