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LA市长选举市场定价与候选人分歧

2026-07-16 · Kalshi · 18 条相关讨论

I knew he would hit the brakes 2026-07-16 07:44:58

Anyone have an understanding of what's up with LA mayor pricing?

Anyone have an understanding of what's up with LA mayor pricing?

Sujay 2026-07-16 07:59:49

probably whales cashing out of nithya Y

probably whales cashing out of nithya Y

Greek 2026-07-16 08:02:10

also who's in a rush to buy it back up, timing the bottom is definitely also happening

also who's in a rush to buy it back up, timing the bottom is definitely also happening

Greek 2026-07-16 08:02:24

im not buying it back to 40

im not buying it back to 40

OneOldHat 2026-07-16 08:03:14

There hasnt been a poll since the election and I think many are looking at the Pratt/Bass overlap and concluding Bass will win.

There hasnt been a poll since the election and I think many are looking at the Pratt/Bass overlap and concluding Bass will win.

I knew he would hit the brakes 2026-07-16 08:04:17

I was thinking that too but magnitude of it is kind of strange and doesn't seem like there is necessarily that much other stuff to rotate into with size at the moment

I was thinking that too but magnitude of it is kind of strange and doesn't seem like there is necessarily that much other stuff to rotate into with size at the moment

OneOldHat 2026-07-16 08:04:43

I think that analysis isnt accounting for a few things, but its not unreasonable. As other races start to get more volume and as people need funds theres more sell pressure as well probably given most were Raman Y at one point

I think that analysis isnt accounting for a few things, but its not unreasonable. As other races start to get more volume and as people need funds theres more sell pressure as well probably given most were Raman Y at one point

I knew he would hit the brakes 2026-07-16 08:05:59

Yeah exactly there's definetely spots to put money but nothing clear and "widely known" IMO

Yeah exactly there's definetely spots to put money but nothing clear and "widely known" IMO

I knew he would hit the brakes 2026-07-16 08:06:39

Is there some specific data that you're referencing when you say pratt/bass overlap?

Is there some specific data that you're referencing when you say pratt/bass overlap?

OneOldHat 2026-07-16 08:11:11

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.

nonsenseking 2026-07-16 08:15:49

bass won r1 and probably conservative voters split her way as well in r2

bass won r1 and probably conservative voters split her way as well in r2

i2dt 2026-07-16 08:17:08

I doubt that. Think it’s wrong to look at this as a basic left right spectrum thing. Bass is despised. Pratt voters want to overturn things and will likely sit out, but Raman will be their protest vote

I doubt that. Think it’s wrong to look at this as a basic left right spectrum thing. Bass is despised. Pratt voters want to overturn things and will likely sit out, but Raman will be their protest vote

@bernardbulletin 2026-07-16 08:17:11

nithya N is rising as the spencer pratt write-in campaign picks up steam

nithya N is rising as the spencer pratt write-in campaign picks up steam

polar 2026-07-16 08:17:14

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.

i2dt 2026-07-16 08:18:10

The Pratt to Bass voter is hard for me to picture, but I can foresee some humans going from Pratt to Raman

The Pratt to Bass voter is hard for me to picture, but I can foresee some humans going from Pratt to Raman

Greek 2026-07-16 08:18:24

how do I model for LA downblending the ballots?

how do I model for LA downblending the ballots?

polar 2026-07-16 08:18:43

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.

Just basic modeling knowledge. Youll figure it out eventually.