秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

世界杯名人出席市场即时结算引发争议

2026-07-20 · Kalshi · 328 条相关讨论

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:06:26

https://klipy.com/gifs/michael-scott-95

https://klipy.com/gifs/michael-scott-95

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:07:05

we need more letting the market run overnight, late night hours have been nothing recently

we need more letting the market run overnight, late night hours have been nothing recently

Chris 2026-07-20 14:17:34

Is this real

Is this real

neighbor 2026-07-20 14:17:52

Minnesota probably winning

Minnesota probably winning

Four 2026-07-20 14:18:50

8% of port 🥀

8% of port 🥀

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:27:32

The classic "I lost money so I'm charging back" response

The classic "I lost money so I'm charging back" response

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:29:13

It only ever happens with them

It only ever happens with them

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:29:34

I was going to point to the brad thread

I was going to point to the brad thread

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:29:41

Because I think I stunlocked him

Because I think I stunlocked him

Nate 2026-07-20 14:30:07

Willy have you guys considered just flipping a coin to decide how to resolve? Since price closed at 50/50

Willy have you guys considered just flipping a coin to decide how to resolve? Since price closed at 50/50

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:30:23

Brad Pitt's left half was at the game

Brad Pitt's left half was at the game

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:30:57

I don't get this at all mane

I don't get this at all mane

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:31:04

My sleep is fcked

My sleep is fcked

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:31:15

How does Leo go N but Brad stays open 😭

How does Leo go N but Brad stays open 😭

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:31:36

Did any of the lists put Leo on?

Did any of the lists put Leo on?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:31:41

Leo had just as good of an argument to stay open for additional reporting, if that is the purpose of the TBD

Leo had just as good of an argument to stay open for additional reporting, if that is the purpose of the TBD

Cruxal 2026-07-20 14:32:04

Ohtani selling

Ohtani selling

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:32:04

There was a source that said he was likely there, and my understanding is a photo that had what was probably him in it, but didn't have face

There was a source that said he was likely there, and my understanding is a photo that had what was probably him in it, but didn't have face

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:32:13

Seemed like a great spot to leave it open for evidence

Seemed like a great spot to leave it open for evidence

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:32:24

I thought that was him too but probably was her daddy

I thought that was him too but probably was her daddy

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:32:27

If that's what the idea of this market was

If that's what the idea of this market was

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:32:31

I just don't get it

I just don't get it

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:33:00

Guy who was probably actually there -> N Guy who was def not there -> Y

Guy who was probably actually there -> N Guy who was def not there -> Y

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:33:12

Brad Pitt was probably there

Brad Pitt was probably there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:33:14

makes sense to me, source agency says Pitt was there but since he probably wasn't actually there it is left open in case alibi is found

makes sense to me, source agency says Pitt was there but since he probably wasn't actually there it is left open in case alibi is found

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:33:16

I firmly believe that

I firmly believe that

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:33:22

it payed out

it payed out

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:33:34

I'm talking about brad

I'm talking about brad

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:33:39

no way u act think he was there

no way u act think he was there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:33:56

More likely than not imo

More likely than not imo

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:34:05

There are multiple different sources saying he was there

There are multiple different sources saying he was there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:34:11

That drew from different underlying reporting

That drew from different underlying reporting

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:34:12

He would be the only A list celeb to not be photographed/ videoed at a game before?

He would be the only A list celeb to not be photographed/ videoed at a game before?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:34:23

There's no way this is true

There's no way this is true

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:34:29

And selection bias

And selection bias

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:34:37

dude no way he went imo lol

dude no way he went imo lol

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:34:41

other than Tracy of course lol

other than Tracy of course lol

Nate 2026-07-20 14:34:45

Yeah it wouldn’t have hurt to have left Leo and maybe some others open still

Yeah it wouldn’t have hurt to have left Leo and maybe some others open still

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:34:56

This is way stronger than Tracy Morgan was

This is way stronger than Tracy Morgan was

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:35:06

Which relied solely on one proven-to-be shoddy list

Which relied solely on one proven-to-be shoddy list

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:35:17

This has multiple independent sources getting there on their own

This has multiple independent sources getting there on their own

Nate 2026-07-20 14:35:17

Though them leaving Brad Pitt open doesn’t seem to be for more evidence to come out based off the green box

Though them leaving Brad Pitt open doesn’t seem to be for more evidence to come out based off the green box

Nate 2026-07-20 14:35:22

But who knows maybe

But who knows maybe

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:35:27

+ he was listed on pregame guest list

+ he was listed on pregame guest list

Nate 2026-07-20 14:36:05

Tom Holland made it all the way to the exit gate before someone caught 2s of his back. If that can happen why not Brad Pitt

Tom Holland made it all the way to the exit gate before someone caught 2s of his back. If that can happen why not Brad Pitt

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:36:05

🥀 I thought this was Leo at first but I am torso-blind autist

🥀 I thought this was Leo at first but I am torso-blind autist

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:36:30

The whole argument of him not being photographed means he wasn't there is stupid

The whole argument of him not being photographed means he wasn't there is stupid

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:36:39

"when has a celebrity ever not been photographed"

"when has a celebrity ever not been photographed"

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:36:51

You don't find out about the ones who don't get photographed

You don't find out about the ones who don't get photographed

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:36:53

That's how it works

That's how it works

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:37:14

well yea but thats not the argument tho

well yea but thats not the argument tho

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:37:29

we just saying realistally he prob wasnt there

we just saying realistally he prob wasnt there

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:37:41

like if the market resolved on reality

like if the market resolved on reality

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:37:51

it wouldve closed way below 50c

it wouldve closed way below 50c

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:38:06

because it was literally at 50

because it was literally at 50

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:38:16

with a source agency saying he was there

with a source agency saying he was there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:38:20

yeah it's easy for me to say with no shares, he almost certainly wasn't there (less than 10%) but will resolve Y (more than 90%)

yeah it's easy for me to say with no shares, he almost certainly wasn't there (less than 10%) but will resolve Y (more than 90%)

Winny la Pew 2026-07-20 14:38:24

if the market resolved on reality it would resolve yes because a source news agency reported it occurred

if the market resolved on reality it would resolve yes because a source news agency reported it occurred

Winny la Pew 2026-07-20 14:38:46

ez pz wipe your hands of it

ez pz wipe your hands of it

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:39:00

yes the market will resolve that way due to the contract but it's also likely to understand source agencies make mistakes

yes the market will resolve that way due to the contract but it's also likely to understand source agencies make mistakes

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:39:17

If the market was a default to N unless there is affirmative proof, that'd be different

If the market was a default to N unless there is affirmative proof, that'd be different

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:39:21

But also not based on reality

But also not based on reality

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:39:32

I mean it's the blackpill

I mean it's the blackpill

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:39:42

Reality is source agency reporting as far as we're able to perceive it

Reality is source agency reporting as far as we're able to perceive it

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:39:58

yea but we not talking abt market

yea but we not talking abt market

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:40:10

what u think odds are he was actually there

what u think odds are he was actually there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:40:23

upon my further review he was definitely there in reality case closed

upon my further review he was definitely there in reality case closed

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:40:23

like if god was settling this market lmfao

like if god was settling this market lmfao

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:40:54

low, would need a Holland but even more extreme out of the public eye because Holland was eventually just barely captured on camera

low, would need a Holland but even more extreme out of the public eye because Holland was eventually just barely captured on camera

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:41:28

Pregame list had Pitt

Pregame list had Pitt

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:41:33

Reported by source agencies

Reported by source agencies

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:41:38

Sources listed Pitt in attendance

Sources listed Pitt in attendance

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:41:43

What else is there

What else is there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:41:45

this is more likely evidence of bad source agencies than that he was there

this is more likely evidence of bad source agencies than that he was there

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:42:03

dude I mean it was literally closing at 50c

dude I mean it was literally closing at 50c

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:42:16

because source agencies could and have in the past obviously publish a list based on the pregame list

because source agencies could and have in the past obviously publish a list based on the pregame list

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:42:33

Yeah that's why the reporter said "we saw... Brad Pitt" lmao

Yeah that's why the reporter said "we saw... Brad Pitt" lmao

Four 2026-07-20 14:42:35

Why is the graffiti where I live just dicks and gang tags and not stuff like this

Why is the graffiti where I live just dicks and gang tags and not stuff like this

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:42:50

This is evidence that it's more likely, because he was expected to be in attendance

This is evidence that it's more likely, because he was expected to be in attendance

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:42:54

But I see your argument

But I see your argument

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:44:11

Occam's razor is either he rarely escaped all photo and video unlike 99% of strikes across all attendance markets I've ever seen, or one guy lied (possibly based on the pregame list). It has to go Y because there's no alibi but I highly doubt he was actually there

Occam's razor is either he rarely escaped all photo and video unlike 99% of strikes across all attendance markets I've ever seen, or one guy lied (possibly based on the pregame list). It has to go Y because there's no alibi but I highly doubt he was actually there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:44:39

80k person stadium

80k person stadium

Four 2026-07-20 14:44:43

Brad Pitt kinda a nobody he could slip under the radar

Brad Pitt kinda a nobody he could slip under the radar

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:44:45

Unreasonable to expect everybody to be captured

Unreasonable to expect everybody to be captured

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:00

Especially because Pitt is generally pretty low-key in appearance

Especially because Pitt is generally pretty low-key in appearance

Four 2026-07-20 14:45:09

I do wonder though

I do wonder though

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:18

Like I said - when a celebrity goes to a game and does not get photographed, you never find out about it

Like I said - when a celebrity goes to a game and does not get photographed, you never find out about it

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:30

What % of celebrity game-attendances are photographed? You have no idea

What % of celebrity game-attendances are photographed? You have no idea

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:45:32

You think it's more likely that one guy correctly saw him from his seats from far away compared to literally every other camera in the building failing to capture him, including him being transported too and from game

You think it's more likely that one guy correctly saw him from his seats from far away compared to literally every other camera in the building failing to capture him, including him being transported too and from game

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:34

Because survivorship bias

Because survivorship bias

Four 2026-07-20 14:45:41

If information comes out tomorrow that places him elsewhere and it goes N then every other N that didn't have that confirmation is a misresolve

If information comes out tomorrow that places him elsewhere and it goes N then every other N that didn't have that confirmation is a misresolve

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:51

No, I think it's more likely he saw him walking around the stadium

No, I think it's more likely he saw him walking around the stadium

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:45:53

in the Kalshi markets you would

in the Kalshi markets you would

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:45:57

Not with binoculars from across the stadium

Not with binoculars from across the stadium

Four 2026-07-20 14:46:02

Would they resolve N off of info tomorrow

Would they resolve N off of info tomorrow

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:46:18

yeah that's what the greenbox is about

yeah that's what the greenbox is about

Four 2026-07-20 14:46:40

How could they possibly resolve all those others N then too

How could they possibly resolve all those others N then too

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:46:51

In modern society everyone has their phone cameras someone would almost certainly post a picture or something on twitter

In modern society everyone has their phone cameras someone would almost certainly post a picture or something on twitter

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:47:23

because there's no pictures/videos + no source agencies claimed they were there so there is no debate

because there's no pictures/videos + no source agencies claimed they were there so there is no debate

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:47:37

Like that time we got a pic of Tracy Morgan at the NBA finals

Like that time we got a pic of Tracy Morgan at the NBA finals

Four 2026-07-20 14:47:38

What if they just didn't get around to it yet?

What if they just didn't get around to it yet?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:48:03

It's insane to early res some N off lack of reporting

It's insane to early res some N off lack of reporting

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:48:09

But then hold one up that has consensus reporting

But then hold one up that has consensus reporting

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:48:27

One way or the other

One way or the other

Nate 2026-07-20 14:48:39

I feel like that’s why they’re holding it up

I feel like that’s why they’re holding it up

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:48:40

I also think the market should be TBD for at least a day, what if Leo/Pitt come out tomorrow and talks about how great it was being at the world cup final?

I also think the market should be TBD for at least a day, what if Leo/Pitt come out tomorrow and talks about how great it was being at the world cup final?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:48:47

A few sources in consensus, no contradiction

A few sources in consensus, no contradiction

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:49:01

That satisfies the payout criterion

That satisfies the payout criterion

Winny la Pew 2026-07-20 14:49:27

barring no change, it resolves yes

barring no change, it resolves yes

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:49:28

Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is reporting from the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is reporting from the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:49:29

Again, this and Tracey Morgan would be the first Y attendence strikes in history with no photo/ video evidence, which is fine, but fair to leave it open

Again, this and Tracey Morgan would be the first Y attendence strikes in history with no photo/ video evidence, which is fine, but fair to leave it open

Nate 2026-07-20 14:49:32

Cause it has enough to go Y already but they either need more time to decide or want better confirmation to come out to make resolving it Y more justifiable

Cause it has enough to go Y already but they either need more time to decide or want better confirmation to come out to make resolving it Y more justifiable

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:49:34

Leo can easily post a pic of him at the game tomorrow on his instagram story

Leo can easily post a pic of him at the game tomorrow on his instagram story

Nate 2026-07-20 14:49:43

I.e. photo or video

I.e. photo or video

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:49:51

This is what I'm saying

This is what I'm saying

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:49:55

which is why its dumb they already settled Leo at N

which is why its dumb they already settled Leo at N

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:49:56

Are we operating off hypotheticals or not

Are we operating off hypotheticals or not

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:50:03

Because if we are, leave Leo open and this open

Because if we are, leave Leo open and this open

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:50:07

If we're not, resolve both

If we're not, resolve both

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:50:12

But no source agencies said he was there

But no source agencies said he was there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:50:13

Decide whether SA is sufficient

Decide whether SA is sufficient

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:50:15

were waved mitchie

were waved mitchie

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:50:19

One said he was likely there

One said he was likely there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:50:36

if they said "he was there" then it would probably be left open

if they said "he was there" then it would probably be left open

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:50:57

Lack of reporting != Confirmation of N

Lack of reporting != Confirmation of N

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:51:08

this also loses all credibility to "appearances" markets. Why would i ever want to risk my money on something that they can resolve without confirmation?

this also loses all credibility to "appearances" markets. Why would i ever want to risk my money on something that they can resolve without confirmation?

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:51:14

yes it is, because you need a source agency to resolve Y

yes it is, because you need a source agency to resolve Y

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:51:26

If a celebrity goes to a game but it is never reported then it's a N obviously

If a celebrity goes to a game but it is never reported then it's a N obviously

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:51:31

So what they're saying by instaresolving N is that "the snapshot of SA reporting at this time, even if attendance is ambiguous/undefined one way or the other, is enough to resolve the market"

So what they're saying by instaresolving N is that "the snapshot of SA reporting at this time, even if attendance is ambiguous/undefined one way or the other, is enough to resolve the market"

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:51:42

source agencies are the confirmation

source agencies are the confirmation

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:51:49

no they arent dude

no they arent dude

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:51:53

But this can't happen cause at least one photo would be taken of them

But this can't happen cause at least one photo would be taken of them

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:51:57

its also "social media posts"

its also "social media posts"

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:52:19

if a celebrity goes under the radar then for the market's purposes they didn't go

if a celebrity goes under the radar then for the market's purposes they didn't go

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:52:42

Yea this doesn’t rlly make sense to me

Yea this doesn’t rlly make sense to me

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:52:45

what strike do you think was resolved without a source agency?

what strike do you think was resolved without a source agency?

Nate 2026-07-20 14:53:06

Tina fey went Y based on broadcast footage and NYT photo only no actual report

Tina fey went Y based on broadcast footage and NYT photo only no actual report

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:53:06

what source agency said he went to game?

what source agency said he went to game?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:09

But by leaving the market open you're saying that the snapshot of source agency reporting isn't sufficient to be sure of the outcome

But by leaving the market open you're saying that the snapshot of source agency reporting isn't sufficient to be sure of the outcome

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:15

Why is that the case here but not for leo

Why is that the case here but not for leo

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:26

If we're leaving it open for counterevidence to come out for pitt

If we're leaving it open for counterevidence to come out for pitt

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:53:27

video/ photo is a source agency + NY Times

video/ photo is a source agency + NY Times

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:53:35

Cuz if they waiting for more info to resolve pitt how could they ever settle any of the Ns

Cuz if they waiting for more info to resolve pitt how could they ever settle any of the Ns

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:38

Why aren't we leaving it open to allow for supporting evidence for others

Why aren't we leaving it open to allow for supporting evidence for others

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:53:46

Unless there’s proof they not there somehow

Unless there’s proof they not there somehow

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:47

For the ones that are ambiguous*

For the ones that are ambiguous*

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:53:52

US Weekly stated that "Leo reportedly attended"

US Weekly stated that "Leo reportedly attended"

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:53:55

It's different if we have concrete evidence they were elsewhere

It's different if we have concrete evidence they were elsewhere

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:54:46

that's not attendence being confirmed ?

that's not attendence being confirmed ?

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:54:53

so just leave open the damn market until tomorrow, when they can actually confirm

so just leave open the damn market until tomorrow, when they can actually confirm

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:55:25

Why? Kalshi isn't wrong, and faster settlements are better for all

Why? Kalshi isn't wrong, and faster settlements are better for all

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:55:31

and thats not an N also. Which is my whole point. Leave it TBD for now and figure it out in the next day or two

and thats not an N also. Which is my whole point. Leave it TBD for now and figure it out in the next day or two

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:55:32

In practice nothing is going to come out

In practice nothing is going to come out

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:55:52

thats not true when its clearly ambiguous at the time

thats not true when its clearly ambiguous at the time

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:56:20

If Leo later confirmed he was definitively there Kalshi would likely pay out Y, there's nothing to complain about

If Leo later confirmed he was definitively there Kalshi would likely pay out Y, there's nothing to complain about

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:56:22

Yea but we not arguing that it should be left open

Yea but we not arguing that it should be left open

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:56:25

We saying that’s right

We saying that’s right

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:56:30

This should theoretically support fast Y res but not necessarily fast N res

This should theoretically support fast Y res but not necessarily fast N res

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 14:56:33

But that they should also pay out Pitt

But that they should also pay out Pitt

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:56:40

Like the payout criterion was met

Like the payout criterion was met

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:56:43

Nothing else should matter

Nothing else should matter

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:56:48

no they wont haha

no they wont haha

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:56:55

they actually have many times

they actually have many times

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:57:10

Either both should've been left open, or both paid out

Either both should've been left open, or both paid out

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:57:12

It would be a massive loss, so they obivously (correctly) view the "risk" being practically zero

It would be a massive loss, so they obivously (correctly) view the "risk" being practically zero

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:57:14

If we're trying to be consistent

If we're trying to be consistent

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:57:32

Yeah they won't

Yeah they won't

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:57:36

Rules cover that

Rules cover that

jkramer202 2026-07-20 14:57:44

Slade what r u talking about

Slade what r u talking about

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:57:45

Revisions made to underlying after expiration don't matter

Revisions made to underlying after expiration don't matter

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:57:59

idk what you guys are talking about, Kalshi pays out misresolves all the time

idk what you guys are talking about, Kalshi pays out misresolves all the time

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:00

They are under no obligation to pay out Y

They are under no obligation to pay out Y

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:58:09

Any example they misresolved and didn't payout correct side?

Any example they misresolved and didn't payout correct side?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:12

They wouldn't pay this out

They wouldn't pay this out

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:16

Because it wouldn't be a misresolve

Because it wouldn't be a misresolve

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:58:26

I've been apart of 5+ usually on side they misresolve for intially

I've been apart of 5+ usually on side they misresolve for intially

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:31

It would be a resolution based on the state of the underlying at expiration

It would be a resolution based on the state of the underlying at expiration

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:38

And then a revision to the underlying afterwards

And then a revision to the underlying afterwards

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:58:46

Which is explicitly called out as not being relevant

Which is explicitly called out as not being relevant

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:58:49

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhsi/hangseng/kxhsi-26jun30

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhsi/hangseng/kxhsi-26jun30

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 14:59:04

the "errenously" paid out HK24k, and then repaid out N holders from their own pockets

the "errenously" paid out HK24k, and then repaid out N holders from their own pockets

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:59:20

Genuinely fck this guy

Genuinely fck this guy

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:59:39

Just constantly lying

Just constantly lying

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 14:59:56

A misresolve is different

A misresolve is different

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:00:03

Leo wouldn't be a misres

Leo wouldn't be a misres

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:00:18

what do you mean, if theoretically he came out tomorrow with evidence he was there

what do you mean, if theoretically he came out tomorrow with evidence he was there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:00:27

Not a misresolve

Not a misresolve

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:00:31

It wasn't resolved in error

It wasn't resolved in error

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:00:58

It was resolved based off a snapshot of SA reporting that was revised post expiration

It was resolved based off a snapshot of SA reporting that was revised post expiration

M 2026-07-20 15:01:00

<:kekw:1197913802931449886>

<:kekw:1197913802931449886>

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:01:10

That's different from a fckup

That's different from a fckup

jkramer202 2026-07-20 15:01:24

mitchie is unfortunately right in this situation

mitchie is unfortunately right in this situation

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:01:37

You just disagree with the speed of resolution

You just disagree with the speed of resolution

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:01:52

But if we're taking a snapshot of Leo and saying "ok, no reports so N"

But if we're taking a snapshot of Leo and saying "ok, no reports so N"

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:01:57

Why are we not doing the same for Y here

Why are we not doing the same for Y here

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:02:05

If ANYTHING it should be flipped

If ANYTHING it should be flipped

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:02:11

is there a snapshot clause in universal kalshi ruleset?

is there a snapshot clause in universal kalshi ruleset?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:02:19

Y should instares off a single SA report with N staying open

Y should instares off a single SA report with N staying open

Nate 2026-07-20 15:02:36

All resolutions are vibes. Rules are suggestions, we waste our time trying to understand them

All resolutions are vibes. Rules are suggestions, we waste our time trying to understand them

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:02:41

in practice this obviously would be awful

in practice this obviously would be awful

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:02:59

But it makes more sense than this

But it makes more sense than this

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:03:10

A positive can he "proven" instantly

A positive can he "proven" instantly

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:03:14

A negative cannot

A negative cannot

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:03:24

Unless there's hard evidence of them being elsewhere at the time*

Unless there's hard evidence of them being elsewhere at the time*

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:03:42

Just like how a mention can become Y in an instant, but N has to decay

Just like how a mention can become Y in an instant, but N has to decay

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:03:48

I really don't see the problem with how Kalshi is handling this. Any photo/video = insta Y, list with no Photo/Video = also Y but give some time just in case

I really don't see the problem with how Kalshi is handling this. Any photo/video = insta Y, list with no Photo/Video = also Y but give some time just in case

jkramer202 2026-07-20 15:04:13

u just argued against urself here

u just argued against urself here

jkramer202 2026-07-20 15:04:19

ur on our side now

ur on our side now

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:04:40

I was always on the side of Y resolution. That's the contract, but I think they are handling it brilliantly by not paying out quickly

I was always on the side of Y resolution. That's the contract, but I think they are handling it brilliantly by not paying out quickly

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:04:50

This is my special hell

This is my special hell

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:04:55

Being forced to argue a cuck

Being forced to argue a cuck

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:05:16

This is genuinely the worst

This is genuinely the worst

jkramer202 2026-07-20 15:05:19

u just said "but give some time just in case". they arent giving Leo Y any time

u just said "but give some time just in case". they arent giving Leo Y any time

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:05:24

Please give me the sports cabal

Please give me the sports cabal

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:05:28

because no source agency said he was there

because no source agency said he was there

lew 2026-07-20 15:05:28

U cuck

U cuck

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:05:56

No source agency said Pitt wasn't there

No source agency said Pitt wasn't there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:06:03

So we don't need to wait for N evidence yeah?

So we don't need to wait for N evidence yeah?

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:06:18

it's the lack of video/ photo

it's the lack of video/ photo

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:06:23

I'm cool with instaresing anything that has no contradiction

I'm cool with instaresing anything that has no contradiction

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:06:28

For the record

For the record

Four 2026-07-20 15:07:00

I saw Leo and my mind went to the pope

I saw Leo and my mind went to the pope

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:07:01

There's a chance a source agency corrects a text list, but you can't take back a photo

There's a chance a source agency corrects a text list, but you can't take back a photo

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 15:07:22

What if the source agencies change their article after close

What if the source agencies change their article after close

Sam 2026-07-20 15:07:50

bruh it’s gonna be Pitt N

bruh it’s gonna be Pitt N

Four 2026-07-20 15:08:26

Source: bruh

Source: bruh

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:10:27

Hello, I am likely going to dispute the resolution of the Travis Scott not attending the World Cup market. Travis posted a photo of his kids in an unidentifiable hallway and the market is taking it as a valid resolution but it legally would not resolve that way. Any clarification on this resolution would be great, and a legal contact at Kalshi to email would also be great

Hello, I am likely going to dispute the resolution of the Travis Scott not attending the World Cup market. Travis posted a photo of his kids in an unidentifiable hallway and the market is taking it as a valid resolution but it legally would not resolve that way. Any clarification on this resolution would be great, and a legal contact at Kalshi to email would also be great

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:11:08

https://klipy.com/gifs/mrbeast-ytpmv-1

https://klipy.com/gifs/mrbeast-ytpmv-1

M 2026-07-20 15:11:51

thats prob AI travis tbh

thats prob AI travis tbh

Sam 2026-07-20 15:12:11

which is source is this lol

which is source is this lol

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:12:34

[NBC](https://www.nbcsports.com/soccer/live/spain-vs-argentina-live-updates-score-goals-highlights-stats-2026-fifa-world-cup-july-19)

[NBC](https://www.nbcsports.com/soccer/live/spain-vs-argentina-live-updates-score-goals-highlights-stats-2026-fifa-world-cup-july-19)

lucariokai 2026-07-20 15:12:43

when i was a lot younger i did the floss emote in front of my sister when we were arguing and she threw the tv remote straight at my face

when i was a lot younger i did the floss emote in front of my sister when we were arguing and she threw the tv remote straight at my face

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:13:00

not good, Argentina lost 🥀

not good, Argentina lost 🥀

lucariokai 2026-07-20 15:15:10

bro they’ve been arguing in the thread for almost 3 hours straight

bro they’ve been arguing in the thread for almost 3 hours straight

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:21:52

What is your reasoning for believing so strongly he was not there

What is your reasoning for believing so strongly he was not there

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:01

NBC and AP came to the conclusion separately

NBC and AP came to the conclusion separately

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:06

He was listed on pregame guest list

He was listed on pregame guest list

Lord Farquaad 2026-07-20 15:22:06

The judging has become complete and utter slop without Len though. Genuinely just the three judges (they added Derek Hough) circle jerking trying to one up each other for how much they glaze the celebs

The judging has become complete and utter slop without Len though. Genuinely just the three judges (they added Derek Hough) circle jerking trying to one up each other for how much they glaze the celebs

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:22:10

no picture/ video (reality), I'm not arguing for the contract to go N

no picture/ video (reality), I'm not arguing for the contract to go N

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:15

We're talking about it like it's a foregone conclusion

We're talking about it like it's a foregone conclusion

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:22

He absolutely could've been there

He absolutely could've been there

Four 2026-07-20 15:22:22

That's unfortunate to hear

That's unfortunate to hear

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:32

I think that's silly

I think that's silly

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:37

There's plenty of smoke

There's plenty of smoke

Lord Farquaad 2026-07-20 15:22:50

Yeah like it was always kind of rough but you at least had Len to keep them straight a little, but now they have no straight man

Yeah like it was always kind of rough but you at least had Len to keep them straight a little, but now they have no straight man

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:22:53

It isn't USA today that just reposted the guest list

It isn't USA today that just reposted the guest list

Four 2026-07-20 15:22:53

When I was watching it like 20 years ago it really seemed to be about the dancing

When I was watching it like 20 years ago it really seemed to be about the dancing

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:23:11

It's two different sources both saying he was there, plus the guest list, with one saying "we saw him"

It's two different sources both saying he was there, plus the guest list, with one saying "we saw him"

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:23:17

It's possible but would be first of its kind situation from what I've seen

It's possible but would be first of its kind situation from what I've seen

Four 2026-07-20 15:23:24

God it's messed up that I even existed 20 years ago wtf

God it's messed up that I even existed 20 years ago wtf

Four 2026-07-20 15:23:26

Not cool

Not cool

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:23:29

What is the article other than the NBC?

What is the article other than the NBC?

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:23:32

It's not like they just anchored on the guest list

It's not like they just anchored on the guest list

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:23:43

Because there's people on the NBC list not on the guest list

Because there's people on the NBC list not on the guest list

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:23:47

So there's something there

So there's something there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:24:11

I never saw an article other than the NBC?

I never saw an article other than the NBC?

Four 2026-07-20 15:24:27

The opening song went hard AF do they still use he same one

The opening song went hard AF do they still use he same one

sl don 2026-07-20 15:24:30

gng he wont

gng he wont

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:29:04

https://archive.is/x9FLZ

https://archive.is/x9FLZ

sl don 2026-07-20 15:29:08

holy shi hop off my dih lmao

holy shi hop off my dih lmao

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:29:11

I'm not talking about market res btw

I'm not talking about market res btw

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:29:16

Just reality of chance he was there

Just reality of chance he was there

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:29:40

this guy got bullied into changing his article 🥀

this guy got bullied into changing his article 🥀

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:30:00

Yeah, just completely changed the content

Yeah, just completely changed the content

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:30:07

Not like he just removed pitt

Not like he just removed pitt

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:31:13

I'm going to crash out

I'm going to crash out

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:31:18

We put ideas in an rfd thread

We put ideas in an rfd thread

Four 2026-07-20 15:31:24

Where

Where

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:31:25

To argue a resolution

To argue a resolution

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:31:35

https://discord.com/channels/871819895443189862/1528596668771995668

https://discord.com/channels/871819895443189862/1528596668771995668

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:32:30

I get ragebaited too easily

I get ragebaited too easily

Four 2026-07-20 15:32:39

The worst ragebait

The worst ragebait

Four 2026-07-20 15:32:42

In this whole server

In this whole server

Four 2026-07-20 15:32:51

I fall for it every time

I fall for it every time

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:35:20

"I found a photo of Nick in the stands, no way he could've seen Brad Pitt anywhere!"

"I found a photo of Nick in the stands, no way he could've seen Brad Pitt anywhere!"

Mitchieboi 2026-07-20 15:35:41

"we just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the NBC source reporting can be safely ignored"

"we just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the NBC source reporting can be safely ignored"

Sam 2026-07-20 15:36:53

maybe he’ll clock into work at 6am tomorrow and edit it if we harass his inbox

maybe he’ll clock into work at 6am tomorrow and edit it if we harass his inbox

the ritual 2026-07-20 15:37:07

bro deleted it

bro deleted it

Four 2026-07-20 15:39:07

I like giving back to the community

I like giving back to the community

Slade366 NovaRex 2026-07-20 15:39:30

I certainly don't know but there's money to be made to the person who does know

I certainly don't know but there's money to be made to the person who does know

lucariokai 2026-07-20 15:39:32

we need foreign mentions

we need foreign mentions

Four 2026-07-20 15:39:32

Donated a double quarter pounder because I like the thrill

Donated a double quarter pounder because I like the thrill

lucariokai 2026-07-20 15:39:39

to trade at night

to trade at night

DB194 2026-07-20 19:19:13

Was Pitt there

Was Pitt there

Dr. Slips 2026-07-20 19:37:07

<@252554263841079296> is gonna wake up and realize he argued for 3 hours and it seems like his counterparty knows less about the market than when it began 😭

<@252554263841079296> is gonna wake up and realize he argued for 3 hours and it seems like his counterparty knows less about the market than when it began 😭