聊天记录
共 26 条，显示第 1-26 条
Market Title: Will total global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceed 22 million units in 2026?
Outcomes: YES / NO
Market Description: This market resolves to "YES" if the total number of new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) sold globally throughout the calendar year 2026 strictly exceeds 21 million units.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Publication of the Global EV Outlook or Global EV Data report covering the full year of 2026.
Resolution Source: International Energy Agency (IEA).
Market Title: Will total global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceed 22 million units in 2026?
Outcomes: YES / NO
Market Description: This market resolves to "YES" if the total number of new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) sold globally throughout the calendar year 2026 strictly exceeds 21 million units.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Publication of the Global EV Outlook or Global EV Data report covering the full year of 2026.
Resolution Source: International Energy Agency (IEA).
Market Title: Will the EU Issue its First Major Fine Under the AI Act Before December 31, 2026?
Result: Yes/No
Market Explanation: This market's decision is "Yes" if the EU (or its authorized member state regulators) formally issues a fine to any company that violates the EU's AI Act between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The decision is "No" if no fine is issued before the deadline.
Proposed Decision Criteria: Formal publication of the enforcement decision and fine amount by the European Commission or the European Data Protection Board (EDPB).
Decision Source: Official press release from the European Commission (ec.europa.eu) or an official statement from the European Data Protection Board (edpb.europa.eu).
Market Title: Will the EU Issue its First Major Fine Under the AI Act Before December 31, 2026?
Result: Yes/No
Market Explanation: This market's decision is "Yes" if the EU (or its authorized member state regulators) formally issues a fine to any company that violates the EU's AI Act between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The decision is "No" if no fine is issued before the deadline.
Proposed Decision Criteria: Formal publication of the enforcement decision and fine amount by the European Commission or the European Data Protection Board (EDPB).
Decision Source: Official press release from the European Commission (ec.europa.eu) or an official statement from the European Data Protection Board (edpb.europa.eu).
Market Title
Will a new weight-loss drug achieve over 25% average body weight reduction in Phase 3 trials by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any anti-obesity medication demonstrates average weight loss exceeding 25% in Phase 3 clinical trials by the end of 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published Phase 3 trial results.
Resolution Source
New England Journal of Medicine, company press releases, Lancet.
Market Title
Will a new weight-loss drug achieve over 25% average body weight reduction in Phase 3 trials by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any anti-obesity medication demonstrates average weight loss exceeding 25% in Phase 3 clinical trials by the end of 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published Phase 3 trial results.
Resolution Source
New England Journal of Medicine, company press releases, Lancet.
Market Title
Will Pfizer or Moderna release an updated COVID-19 vaccine targeting new variants with over 90% efficacy by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if either company receives approval for a new COVID-19 vaccine formulation demonstrating over 90% efficacy against prevalent variants.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and efficacy data.
Resolution Source
FDA, EMA, company clinical trial results.
Market Title
Will Pfizer or Moderna release an updated COVID-19 vaccine targeting new variants with over 90% efficacy by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if either company receives approval for a new COVID-19 vaccine formulation demonstrating over 90% efficacy against prevalent variants.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and efficacy data.
Resolution Source
FDA, EMA, company clinical trial results.
Market Title: Highest temperature in Cairo, Egypt on June 15, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 39°C. NO: The temperature is not 39°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Cairo on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Cairo International Airport (CAI) in degrees Celsius on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 39°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title: Highest temperature in Cairo, Egypt on June 15, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 39°C. NO: The temperature is not 39°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Cairo on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Cairo International Airport (CAI) in degrees Celsius on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 39°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will global obesity rates among adults exceed 20% by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization reports that more than 20% of the global adult population is obese based on 2026 data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official WHO global health statistics.
Resolution Source
World Health Organization obesity report.
Market Title
Will global obesity rates among adults exceed 20% by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization reports that more than 20% of the global adult population is obese based on 2026 data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official WHO global health statistics.
Resolution Source
World Health Organization obesity report.
17.Market Title
Will the first personalized mRNA cancer treatment be commercially available by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a personalized mRNA-based therapy for cancer becomes commercially available to patients in any major market.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Commercial launch and insurance coverage.
Resolution Source
Moderna, BioNTech, FDA/EMA approvals.
17.Market Title
Will the first personalized mRNA cancer treatment be commercially available by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a personalized mRNA-based therapy for cancer becomes commercially available to patients in any major market.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Commercial launch and insurance coverage.
Resolution Source
Moderna, BioNTech, FDA/EMA approvals.
Market Title Will the US life expectancy exceed 79 years by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if official US life expectancy at birth reaches or exceeds 79 years based on 2026 data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria CDC or National Vital Statistics System report.
Resolution Source Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Market Title Will the US life expectancy exceed 79 years by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if official US life expectancy at birth reaches or exceeds 79 years based on 2026 data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria CDC or National Vital Statistics System report.
Resolution Source Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Market Title Lowest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 13°C. NO: The temperature is not 13°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for London on June 12 , 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 13°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title Lowest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 13°C. NO: The temperature is not 13°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for London on June 12 , 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 13°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Los Angeles, USA – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 15°C. NO: The temperature is not 15°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Los Angeles on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LAX Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 15°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Los Angeles, USA – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 15°C. NO: The temperature is not 15°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Los Angeles on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LAX Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 15°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
London, UK – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 18°C. NO: The temperature is not 18°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for London on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 27°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
London, UK – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 18°C. NO: The temperature is not 18°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for London on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 27°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Los Angeles, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 29°C. NO: The temperature is not 29°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Los Angeles on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LAX Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 29°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Los Angeles, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 29°C. NO: The temperature is not 29°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Los Angeles on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LAX Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 29°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 22°C. NO: The temperature is not 22°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Rio de Janeiro on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Galeão International Airport (GIG) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Galeão Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 22°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 22°C. NO: The temperature is not 22°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Rio de Janeiro on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Galeão International Airport (GIG) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Galeão Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 22°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will a major AI company achieve AGI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any leading AI lab (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.) publicly claims and independent experts widely accept that AGI has been achieved by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus among AI researchers and major media outlets confirming AGI milestone.
Resolution Source
MIT Technology Review, Nature, or major AI research publications.
Market Title
Will a major AI company achieve AGI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any leading AI lab (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.) publicly claims and independent experts widely accept that AGI has been achieved by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus among AI researchers and major media outlets confirming AGI milestone.
Resolution Source
MIT Technology Review, Nature, or major AI research publications.
Market Title
Will Anthropic release Claude 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Anthropic publicly releases Claude 4 or its next major model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Anthropic announcement.
Resolution Source
Anthropic official blog or website.
Market Title
Will Anthropic release Claude 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Anthropic publicly releases Claude 4 or its next major model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Anthropic announcement.
Resolution Source
Anthropic official blog or website.
Paris, France – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Paris, France on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 26°C. NO: The temperature is not 26°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Paris on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 21°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Paris, France – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Paris, France on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 26°C. NO: The temperature is not 26°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Paris on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 21°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sydney, Australia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 12°C. NO: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Sydney onJune 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 12°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sydney, Australia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 12°C. NO: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Sydney onJune 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 12°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's highest daily closing price on any major exchange reaches or exceeds $150,000 at any point before January 1, 2027.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Credible price data from major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or Bloomberg.
Market Title
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's highest daily closing price on any major exchange reaches or exceeds $150,000 at any point before January 1, 2027.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Credible price data from major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or Bloomberg.
Market Title
Will the EU AI Act be fully enforced by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the European Union AI Act is fully in effect and enforced across member states.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official EU enforcement announcements.
Resolution Source
European Commission official website.
Market Title
Will the EU AI Act be fully enforced by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the European Union AI Act is fully in effect and enforced across member states.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official EU enforcement announcements.
Resolution Source
European Commission official website.
Market Title
Will Bitcoin set a new all-time high in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high price above its previous ATH at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed new ATH on major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.
Market Title
Will Bitcoin set a new all-time high in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high price above its previous ATH at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed new ATH on major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.
Market Title
Will autonomous vehicles achieve Level 5 in major US cities by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if fully driverless (Level 5) autonomous vehicles operate commercially in at least 3 major US cities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and commercial operation.
Resolution Source
California DMV, Waymo, or Cruise reports.
Market Title
Will autonomous vehicles achieve Level 5 in major US cities by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if fully driverless (Level 5) autonomous vehicles operate commercially in at least 3 major US cities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and commercial operation.
Resolution Source
California DMV, Waymo, or Cruise reports.
Market Title
Will Dogecoin reach $1 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Dogecoin's daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1.00 at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed daily close on major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.
Market Title
Will Dogecoin reach $1 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Dogecoin's daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1.00 at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed daily close on major exchanges.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.
Market Title Will a major CEX face bankruptcy or halt withdrawals in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any centralized exchange with over $5B average daily volume files for bankruptcy or halts withdrawals for more than 7 days in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Credible news confirmation.
Resolution Source Reuters, Bloomberg, CoinDesk.
Market Title Will a major CEX face bankruptcy or halt withdrawals in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any centralized exchange with over $5B average daily volume files for bankruptcy or halts withdrawals for more than 7 days in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Credible news confirmation.
Resolution Source Reuters, Bloomberg, CoinDesk.
Market Title Will DeFi TVL surpass $300 billion by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if total value locked in DeFi protocols exceeds $300 billion according to DefiLlama at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Any single day above the threshold.
Resolution Source DefiLlama.com.
Market Title Will DeFi TVL surpass $300 billion by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if total value locked in DeFi protocols exceeds $300 billion according to DefiLlama at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Any single day above the threshold.
Resolution Source DefiLlama.com.
Market Title Will Ethereum staking rate exceed 40% by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the percentage of staked ETH exceeds 40% of total supply at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Sustained staking ratio.
Resolution Source Dune Analytics or Beacon Chain data.
Market Title Will Ethereum staking rate exceed 40% by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the percentage of staked ETH exceeds 40% of total supply at any point in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Sustained staking ratio.
Resolution Source Dune Analytics or Beacon Chain data.
Market Title
Will Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) win at least one gold medal at the 2028 Summer Olympics?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if athletes representing Chinese Taipei win one or more gold medals at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official Olympic medal table.
Resolution Source
Olympics.com, IOC, Taiwan Olympic Committee.
Market Title
Will Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) win at least one gold medal at the 2028 Summer Olympics?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if athletes representing Chinese Taipei win one or more gold medals at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official Olympic medal table.
Resolution Source
Olympics.com, IOC, Taiwan Olympic Committee.
Polymarket