聊天记录
共 14 条，显示第 1-14 条
Market Title
Will a demilitarized zone be established along the Russia-Ukraine border by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a formal demilitarized zone is agreed and implemented between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed agreement and verified implementation.
Resolution Source
UN or OSCE monitoring reports.
Market Title
Will a demilitarized zone be established along the Russia-Ukraine border by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a formal demilitarized zone is agreed and implemented between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed agreement and verified implementation.
Resolution Source
UN or OSCE monitoring reports.
Market Title
Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially sign a ceasefire or armistice agreement by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Publicly announced and signed agreement with both governments confirming cessation of active hostilities.
Resolution Source
Official statements from Kremlin, Zelenskyy’s office, or UN Security Council.
Market Title
Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially sign a ceasefire or armistice agreement by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Publicly announced and signed agreement with both governments confirming cessation of active hostilities.
Resolution Source
Official statements from Kremlin, Zelenskyy’s office, or UN Security Council.
Market Title
Will the ANC lose its majority in the South African parliament by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the African National Congress (ANC) fails to secure a majority of seats in the National Assembly in any election by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the Independent Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
Electoral Commission of South Africa.
Market Title
Will the ANC lose its majority in the South African parliament by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the African National Congress (ANC) fails to secure a majority of seats in the National Assembly in any election by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the Independent Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
Electoral Commission of South Africa.
Market Title
Will Emmanuel Macron’s party or allies retain a plurality in the French National Assembly by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Macron’s centrist coalition or allied parties hold the largest number of seats in the French National Assembly following any legislative elections or confidence votes by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official final seat count certified by French authorities.
Resolution Source
French Ministry of the Interior or National Assembly official results.
Market Title
Will Emmanuel Macron’s party or allies retain a plurality in the French National Assembly by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Macron’s centrist coalition or allied parties hold the largest number of seats in the French National Assembly following any legislative elections or confidence votes by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official final seat count certified by French authorities.
Resolution Source
French Ministry of the Interior or National Assembly official results.
Market Title: Will it rain in New York, USA on June 16, 2026?
Result: Yes: Measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). No: No measurable precipitation.
Market Description: This market predicts whether there will be measurable rain in New York on June 16, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market's result is "Yes" if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) on June 16, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation records from the JFK International Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings. The market cannot make a "yes" decision until all relevant data is finalized.
Any data revisions recorded after finalization will not be considered in the market's decision-making process.
Market Title: Will it rain in New York, USA on June 16, 2026?
Result: Yes: Measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). No: No measurable precipitation.
Market Description: This market predicts whether there will be measurable rain in New York on June 16, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market's result is "Yes" if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) on June 16, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation records from the JFK International Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings. The market cannot make a "yes" decision until all relevant data is finalized.
Any data revisions recorded after finalization will not be considered in the market's decision-making process.
Market Title
Will a successful phase 3 trial for an HIV vaccine be completed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Phase 3 clinical trial for an effective HIV vaccine demonstrates positive results by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published trial results in major journals.
Resolution Source
NEJM or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will a successful phase 3 trial for an HIV vaccine be completed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Phase 3 clinical trial for an effective HIV vaccine demonstrates positive results by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published trial results in major journals.
Resolution Source
NEJM or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine be awarded for CRISPR advancements by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2025 or 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is awarded for work related to CRISPR gene editing or its applications.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement by the Nobel Prize Committee.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website (nobelprize.org).
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine be awarded for CRISPR advancements by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2025 or 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is awarded for work related to CRISPR gene editing or its applications.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement by the Nobel Prize Committee.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website (nobelprize.org).
Market Title Will a crop circle phenomenon be explained as non-human origin by scientists in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if scientists officially conclude that a major crop circle formation in 2026 was created by non-human means.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed scientific conclusion.
Resolution Source Scientific American or university research teams.
Market Title Will a crop circle phenomenon be explained as non-human origin by scientists in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if scientists officially conclude that a major crop circle formation in 2026 was created by non-human means.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed scientific conclusion.
Resolution Source Scientific American or university research teams.
Market Title Will a confirmed UFO/UAP sighting be officially acknowledged by the US government as non-human in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the US government or Pentagon officially acknowledges at least one UFO/UAP sighting in 2026 as being of non-human origin.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official public statement or declassified report confirming non-human technology.
Resolution Source US Department of Defense, Pentagon, or NASA official releases.
Market Title Will a confirmed UFO/UAP sighting be officially acknowledged by the US government as non-human in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the US government or Pentagon officially acknowledges at least one UFO/UAP sighting in 2026 as being of non-human origin.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official public statement or declassified report confirming non-human technology.
Resolution Source US Department of Defense, Pentagon, or NASA official releases.
Market Title
Will the Met Gala 2026 have a political theme?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2026 Met Gala theme is explicitly related to politics, social activism, or current geopolitical events.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official theme announcement by Vogue and the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
Resolution Source
Vogue Magazine or Met Gala official channels.
Market Title
Will the Met Gala 2026 have a political theme?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2026 Met Gala theme is explicitly related to politics, social activism, or current geopolitical events.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official theme announcement by Vogue and the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
Resolution Source
Vogue Magazine or Met Gala official channels.
Market Title: What is the lowest temperature in Suzhou, China on June 8, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 20°C. No: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (night/lowest) in Suzhou on June 8, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the lowest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Suzhou Shuofang International Airport (ZSWX) on June 8, 2026 as the baseline for calculating the temperature range.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the lowest temperature recorded by the Suzhou Shuofang International Airport weather station on that day (subject to final data confirmation), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/suzhou/ZSWX
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot determine the result as "Yes" until all data is finalized.
The resolution for this market is based on temperature measurements in degrees Celsius (e.g., 20°C). Therefore, this is the level of accuracy that will be used for market settlement.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data has been finalized during the market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What is the lowest temperature in Suzhou, China on June 8, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 20°C. No: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (night/lowest) in Suzhou on June 8, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the lowest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Suzhou Shuofang International Airport (ZSWX) on June 8, 2026 as the baseline for calculating the temperature range.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the lowest temperature recorded by the Suzhou Shuofang International Airport weather station on that day (subject to final data confirmation), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/suzhou/ZSWX
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot determine the result as "Yes" until all data is finalized.
The resolution for this market is based on temperature measurements in degrees Celsius (e.g., 20°C). Therefore, this is the level of accuracy that will be used for market settlement.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data has been finalized during the market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will a Marvel Cinematic Universe film gross over $2 billion worldwide in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) movie released in 2026 grosses more than $2 billion USD at the global box office by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official worldwide box office totals verified at the end of theatrical run.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, or Deadline Hollywood reports.
Market Title
Will a Marvel Cinematic Universe film gross over $2 billion worldwide in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) movie released in 2026 grosses more than $2 billion USD at the global box office by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official worldwide box office totals verified at the end of theatrical run.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, or Deadline Hollywood reports.
Market Title
Will AI achieve breakthrough in nuclear fusion control by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems make a major contribution to achieving sustained nuclear fusion reaction control.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Scientific consensus and peer-reviewed publication.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or ITER organization reports.
Market Title
Will AI achieve breakthrough in nuclear fusion control by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems make a major contribution to achieving sustained nuclear fusion reaction control.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Scientific consensus and peer-reviewed publication.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or ITER organization reports.
Market Title
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if OpenAI publicly releases a model officially named GPT-5 or its direct successor by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement and public availability of the model from OpenAI.
Resolution Source
OpenAI official website or blog.
Market Title
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if OpenAI publicly releases a model officially named GPT-5 or its direct successor by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement and public availability of the model from OpenAI.
Resolution Source
OpenAI official website or blog.
Polymarket