聊天记录
共 13 条，显示第 1-13 条
Market Title
Will Ukraine recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea in any agreement by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in a signed document by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official treaty language.
Resolution Source
Ukrainian government or international mediators.
Market Title
Will Ukraine recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea in any agreement by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in a signed document by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official treaty language.
Resolution Source
Ukrainian government or international mediators.
Market Title
Will a formal peace treaty be signed between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine sign a comprehensive peace treaty ending the war by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed document with both parties and international witnesses.
Resolution Source
Official government announcements or UN records.
Market Title
Will a formal peace treaty be signed between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine sign a comprehensive peace treaty ending the war by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed document with both parties and international witnesses.
Resolution Source
Official government announcements or UN records.
Market Title
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party retain majority in Turkey by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the AKP or its coalition holds a parliamentary majority after any election or by-election in Turkey by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Supreme Election Council results.
Resolution Source
Yüksek Seçim Kurulu (YSK), Turkey.
Market Title
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party retain majority in Turkey by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the AKP or its coalition holds a parliamentary majority after any election or by-election in Turkey by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Supreme Election Council results.
Resolution Source
Yüksek Seçim Kurulu (YSK), Turkey.
Market Title
Will the opposition win a majority in the South Korean National Assembly in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if opposition parties secure a majority of seats in the 2026 South Korean legislative election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official seat distribution certified by the National Election Commission.
Resolution Source
National Election Commission of South Korea.
Market Title
Will the opposition win a majority in the South Korean National Assembly in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if opposition parties secure a majority of seats in the 2026 South Korean legislative election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official seat distribution certified by the National Election Commission.
Resolution Source
National Election Commission of South Korea.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for longevity or aging research by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Nobel Prize recognizes groundbreaking work on the biology of aging or longevity mechanisms.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Committee decision.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for longevity or aging research by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Nobel Prize recognizes groundbreaking work on the biology of aging or longevity mechanisms.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Committee decision.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a breakthrough therapy extending human lifespan by 10+ years be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a credible scientific breakthrough demonstrating potential to extend average human lifespan by 10 years or more is announced.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus in major scientific journals.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or Cell.
Market Title
Will a breakthrough therapy extending human lifespan by 10+ years be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a credible scientific breakthrough demonstrating potential to extend average human lifespan by 10 years or more is announced.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus in major scientific journals.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or Cell.
Market Title Will spontaneous human combustion be scientifically documented in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a case of spontaneous human combustion is scientifically investigated and accepted as genuine in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Forensic and medical peer-reviewed report.
Resolution Source Forensic science journals or major medical associations.
Market Title Will spontaneous human combustion be scientifically documented in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a case of spontaneous human combustion is scientifically investigated and accepted as genuine in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Forensic and medical peer-reviewed report.
Resolution Source Forensic science journals or major medical associations.
Market Title Will the Loch Ness Monster be officially photographed or filmed with clear evidence in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if clear, verified photographic or video evidence of the Loch Ness Monster is released and accepted by scientific authorities in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Confirmation by credible researchers or institutions.
Resolution Source University of Edinburgh or major scientific outlets.
Market Title Will the Loch Ness Monster be officially photographed or filmed with clear evidence in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if clear, verified photographic or video evidence of the Loch Ness Monster is released and accepted by scientific authorities in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Confirmation by credible researchers or institutions.
Resolution Source University of Edinburgh or major scientific outlets.
Market Title
Will Disney+ surpass 200 million global subscribers by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Disney+ reports over 200 million paid subscribers worldwide by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Disney earnings report.
Resolution Source
The Walt Disney Company Investor Relations.
Market Title
Will Disney+ surpass 200 million global subscribers by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Disney+ reports over 200 million paid subscribers worldwide by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Disney earnings report.
Resolution Source
The Walt Disney Company Investor Relations.
Market Title
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI to the public by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official game release and availability on major platforms.
Resolution Source
Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive announcements.
Market Title
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI to the public by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official game release and availability on major platforms.
Resolution Source
Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive announcements.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Paris, France on June 10, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Paris on June 10, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the temperature range of the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 10, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the highest temperature recorded that day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 21°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Paris, France on June 10, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Paris on June 10, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the temperature range of the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 10, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the highest temperature recorded that day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 21°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will the EU AI Act be fully enforced by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the European Union AI Act is fully in effect and enforced across member states.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official EU enforcement announcements.
Resolution Source
European Commission official website.
Market Title
Will the EU AI Act be fully enforced by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the European Union AI Act is fully in effect and enforced across member states.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official EU enforcement announcements.
Resolution Source
European Commission official website.
Market Title
Will the US pass comprehensive federal AI regulation by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States Congress passes and the President signs comprehensive national AI legislation by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Bill becomes law.
Resolution Source
Congress.gov or White House official records.
Market Title
Will the US pass comprehensive federal AI regulation by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States Congress passes and the President signs comprehensive national AI legislation by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Bill becomes law.
Resolution Source
Congress.gov or White House official records.
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