聊天记录
共 14 条，显示第 1-14 条
Market Title
Will a major international peacekeeping force deploy to Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a UN, NATO, or multinational peacekeeping force is deployed inside Ukraine by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed deployment of troops.
Resolution Source
UN Peacekeeping or NATO official statements.
Market Title
Will a major international peacekeeping force deploy to Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a UN, NATO, or multinational peacekeeping force is deployed inside Ukraine by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed deployment of troops.
Resolution Source
UN Peacekeeping or NATO official statements.
Market Title
Will Russia withdraw all troops from Zaporizhzhia region by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces completely withdraw from Zaporizhzhia region (excluding Crimea) by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified full military withdrawal.
Resolution Source
ISW maps or US/European intelligence.
Market Title
Will Russia withdraw all troops from Zaporizhzhia region by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces completely withdraw from Zaporizhzhia region (excluding Crimea) by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified full military withdrawal.
Resolution Source
ISW maps or US/European intelligence.
Market Title
Will the PDP or opposition win the Nigerian presidential election cycle by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the opposition defeats the ruling party in the next Nigerian presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
INEC Nigeria.
Market Title
Will the PDP or opposition win the Nigerian presidential election cycle by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the opposition defeats the ruling party in the next Nigerian presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
INEC Nigeria.
Market Title
Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s successor win the Mexican presidency in 2024-2026 cycle?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the candidate from Morena party (López Obrador’s successor) wins the Mexican presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the National Electoral Institute.
Resolution Source
Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) Mexico.
Market Title
Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s successor win the Mexican presidency in 2024-2026 cycle?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the candidate from Morena party (López Obrador’s successor) wins the Mexican presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results from the National Electoral Institute.
Resolution Source
Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) Mexico.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 20, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Los Angeles on June 20, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will use a resolution range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on June 20, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Los Angeles International Airport weather station on that day (once finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
The market cannot provide a "yes" answer until all data for that date is finalized.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Los Angeles, USA on June 20, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Los Angeles on June 20, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will use a resolution range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on June 20, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Los Angeles International Airport weather station on that day (once finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/LAX
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
The market cannot provide a "yes" answer until all data for that date is finalized.
Market Title
Will a new antibiotic effective against superbugs receive approval by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a novel antibiotic effective against multiple drug-resistant bacteria is approved by major regulators.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA or EMA approval.
Resolution Source
FDA or WHO announcements.
Market Title
Will a new antibiotic effective against superbugs receive approval by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a novel antibiotic effective against multiple drug-resistant bacteria is approved by major regulators.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA or EMA approval.
Resolution Source
FDA or WHO announcements.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for quantum biology or consciousness research by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nobel Prize in Physics recognizes work related to quantum effects in biological systems or consciousness.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for quantum biology or consciousness research by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nobel Prize in Physics recognizes work related to quantum effects in biological systems or consciousness.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title Will a new mystery monolith appear in a remote location in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a new metallic monolith similar to the 2020 Utah monolith appears in a remote area and gains significant media attention in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Documented discovery and public coverage.
Resolution Source BBC, Reuters, or viral verified reports.
Market Title Will a new mystery monolith appear in a remote location in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a new metallic monolith similar to the 2020 Utah monolith appears in a remote area and gains significant media attention in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Documented discovery and public coverage.
Resolution Source BBC, Reuters, or viral verified reports.
Market Title Will a celebrity claim to have been abducted by aliens in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a well-known celebrity (A-list or equivalent) publicly claims to have been abducted by aliens in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public interview or social media statement.
Resolution Source Major entertainment media (Variety, People, TMZ).
Market Title Will a celebrity claim to have been abducted by aliens in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a well-known celebrity (A-list or equivalent) publicly claims to have been abducted by aliens in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public interview or social media statement.
Resolution Source Major entertainment media (Variety, People, TMZ).
Market Title
Will a new “Harry Potter” television series premiere in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the new Harry Potter TV series premieres on HBO/Max in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere date.
Resolution Source
HBO or Warner Bros. Discovery announcements.
Market Title
Will a new “Harry Potter” television series premiere in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the new Harry Potter TV series premieres on HBO/Max in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere date.
Resolution Source
HBO or Warner Bros. Discovery announcements.
Market Title
Will a non-English language film win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a film not primarily in English wins the Best Picture award at the 2026 Academy Awards.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Oscars winners list.
Resolution Source
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences official results.
Market Title
Will a non-English language film win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a film not primarily in English wins the Best Picture award at the 2026 Academy Awards.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Oscars winners list.
Resolution Source
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences official results.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 11, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 11°C. No: The temperature is not 11°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature in Sydney on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a range of temperatures including the lowest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Kingsford Smith Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 12°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 11, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 11°C. No: The temperature is not 11°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature in Sydney on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a range of temperatures including the lowest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Kingsford Smith Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 12°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will AI discover a new antibiotic by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems lead to the discovery and validation of a new effective antibiotic.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed publication and clinical trial progress.
Resolution Source
Nature Medicine or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will AI discover a new antibiotic by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems lead to the discovery and validation of a new effective antibiotic.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed publication and clinical trial progress.
Resolution Source
Nature Medicine or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will Anthropic release Claude 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Anthropic publicly releases Claude 4 or its next major model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Anthropic announcement.
Resolution Source
Anthropic official blog or website.
Market Title
Will Anthropic release Claude 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Anthropic publicly releases Claude 4 or its next major model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Anthropic announcement.
Resolution Source
Anthropic official blog or website.
Polymarket