聊天记录
共 14 条，显示第 1-14 条
Market Title
Will Ukraine regain full control of the Black Sea coast by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine regains control of all its pre-2022 Black Sea coastline by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Ukrainian military confirmation.
Resolution Source
Ukrainian Navy or ISW.
Market Title
Will Ukraine regain full control of the Black Sea coast by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine regains control of all its pre-2022 Black Sea coastline by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Ukrainian military confirmation.
Resolution Source
Ukrainian Navy or ISW.
Market Title
Will all active combat in Ukraine cease by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if there is no reported large-scale combat or artillery exchanges between Russian and Ukrainian forces for at least 30 consecutive days by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus from multiple independent monitors and military intelligence reports.
Resolution Source
US/UK intelligence assessments or Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Market Title
Will all active combat in Ukraine cease by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if there is no reported large-scale combat or artillery exchanges between Russian and Ukrainian forces for at least 30 consecutive days by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus from multiple independent monitors and military intelligence reports.
Resolution Source
US/UK intelligence assessments or Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Market Title
Will Prabowo Subianto’s coalition maintain control of Indonesia’s presidency after 2024?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Prabowo Subianto or his endorsed successor maintains effective control of the Indonesian government through 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Stable government formation and parliamentary support.
Resolution Source
Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU).
Market Title
Will Prabowo Subianto’s coalition maintain control of Indonesia’s presidency after 2024?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Prabowo Subianto or his endorsed successor maintains effective control of the Indonesian government through 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Stable government formation and parliamentary support.
Resolution Source
Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU).
Market Title
Will the CDU/CSU win the German federal election in 2025 or 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) wins the most seats or forms the next government in the next German Bundestag election by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results and government formation.
Resolution Source
German Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).
Market Title
Will the CDU/CSU win the German federal election in 2025 or 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) wins the most seats or forms the next government in the next German Bundestag election by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results and government formation.
Resolution Source
German Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in London, UK on June 18, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 27°C. No: The temperature is not 27°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in London on June 18, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) on June 18, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at Heathrow Airport for all time periods on that day (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 27°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in London, UK on June 18, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 27°C. No: The temperature is not 27°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in London on June 18, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) on June 18, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at Heathrow Airport for all time periods on that day (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 27°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Will brain-computer interface enable thought-controlled prosthetics for daily use by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a commercially available or widely tested BCI system allows paralyzed patients to control advanced prosthetics with thoughts.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA approval or large-scale clinical deployment.
Resolution Source
Neuralink, Synchron, or FDA announcements.
Will brain-computer interface enable thought-controlled prosthetics for daily use by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a commercially available or widely tested BCI system allows paralyzed patients to control advanced prosthetics with thoughts.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA approval or large-scale clinical deployment.
Resolution Source
Neuralink, Synchron, or FDA announcements.
Market Title
Will a cure for Alzheimer's disease be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a treatment is officially declared a functional cure for Alzheimer's disease (stopping or reversing progression) by major health authorities by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA, EMA, or peer-reviewed publication with consensus.
Resolution Source
FDA, The Lancet, or Nature Medicine.
Market Title
Will a cure for Alzheimer's disease be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a treatment is officially declared a functional cure for Alzheimer's disease (stopping or reversing progression) by major health authorities by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FDA, EMA, or peer-reviewed publication with consensus.
Resolution Source
FDA, The Lancet, or Nature Medicine.
Market Title Will the Bermuda Triangle produce a widely documented mysterious disappearance of a large vessel in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a large ship or aircraft disappears in the Bermuda Triangle with no conventional explanation and receives major international coverage in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Confirmed missing with ongoing mystery.
Resolution Source US Coast Guard and major international news.
Market Title Will the Bermuda Triangle produce a widely documented mysterious disappearance of a large vessel in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a large ship or aircraft disappears in the Bermuda Triangle with no conventional explanation and receives major international coverage in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Confirmed missing with ongoing mystery.
Resolution Source US Coast Guard and major international news.
Market Title Will Bigfoot or Sasquatch be officially confirmed by a scientific institution by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a recognized scientific body confirms the existence of Bigfoot/Sasquatch through DNA or physical evidence by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed publication or official announcement by a credible institution.
Resolution Source Nature, Science, or Smithsonian Institution reports.
Market Title Will Bigfoot or Sasquatch be officially confirmed by a scientific institution by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a recognized scientific body confirms the existence of Bigfoot/Sasquatch through DNA or physical evidence by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed publication or official announcement by a credible institution.
Resolution Source Nature, Science, or Smithsonian Institution reports.
Market Title
Will a K-pop group from a Big 4 agency debut at No.1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any K-pop group from SM, YG, JYP, or HYBE reaches No.1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Billboard chart rankings.
Resolution Source
Billboard official website.
Market Title
Will a K-pop group from a Big 4 agency debut at No.1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any K-pop group from SM, YG, JYP, or HYBE reaches No.1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Billboard chart rankings.
Resolution Source
Billboard official website.
Market Title
Will Taylor Swift release a new studio album in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Taylor Swift releases a new full-length studio album in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official release on major streaming platforms and announcement by Swift.
Resolution Source
Taylor Swift’s official social media or Republic Records announcements.
Market Title
Will Taylor Swift release a new studio album in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Taylor Swift releases a new full-length studio album in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official release on major streaming platforms and announcement by Swift.
Resolution Source
Taylor Swift’s official social media or Republic Records announcements.
Market Title: Tokyo, Japan's Lowest Temperature on June 6, 2026?
Result: Yes: Temperature is 17°C. No: Temperature is not 17°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Tokyo on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range including the lowest temperature (degrees Celsius) recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Haneda International Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 17°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: Tokyo, Japan's Lowest Temperature on June 6, 2026?
Result: Yes: Temperature is 17°C. No: Temperature is not 17°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Tokyo on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range including the lowest temperature (degrees Celsius) recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Haneda International Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 17°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will China release a frontier AI model competitive with Western leaders by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Chinese AI company releases a model matching or exceeding GPT-4 level performance by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent international benchmarks.
Resolution Source
LMSYS Chatbot Arena or Stanford AI Index.
Market Title
Will China release a frontier AI model competitive with Western leaders by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Chinese AI company releases a model matching or exceeding GPT-4 level performance by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent international benchmarks.
Resolution Source
LMSYS Chatbot Arena or Stanford AI Index.
Market Title
Will a major AI company achieve AGI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any leading AI lab (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.) publicly claims and independent experts widely accept that AGI has been achieved by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus among AI researchers and major media outlets confirming AGI milestone.
Resolution Source
MIT Technology Review, Nature, or major AI research publications.
Market Title
Will a major AI company achieve AGI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any leading AI lab (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.) publicly claims and independent experts widely accept that AGI has been achieved by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus among AI researchers and major media outlets confirming AGI milestone.
Resolution Source
MIT Technology Review, Nature, or major AI research publications.
Polymarket