聊天记录
共 14 条，显示第 1-14 条
Market Title
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a territorial swap by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if both sides agree to exchange occupied territories as part of a peace or ceasefire deal by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official agreement text.
Resolution Source
Russian or Ukrainian government statements.
Market Title
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a territorial swap by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if both sides agree to exchange occupied territories as part of a peace or ceasefire deal by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official agreement text.
Resolution Source
Russian or Ukrainian government statements.
Market Title
Will Russia retain control of Crimea by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia maintains effective military and administrative control over Crimea as of August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
No change in de facto control confirmed by major international observers.
Resolution Source
US State Department or European Council on Foreign Relations.
Market Title
Will Russia retain control of Crimea by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russia maintains effective military and administrative control over Crimea as of August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
No change in de facto control confirmed by major international observers.
Resolution Source
US State Department or European Council on Foreign Relations.
Market Title
Will Javier Milei win re-election as President of Argentina in 2027 (market active in 2026)?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Javier Milei is re-elected as President of Argentina in the 2027 election (with campaigning and results by December 31, 2026).
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official first or second round results.
Resolution Source
Cámara Nacional Electoral, Argentina.
Market Title
Will Javier Milei win re-election as President of Argentina in 2027 (market active in 2026)?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Javier Milei is re-elected as President of Argentina in the 2027 election (with campaigning and results by December 31, 2026).
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official first or second round results.
Resolution Source
Cámara Nacional Electoral, Argentina.
Market Title
Will the Conservative Party win the next UK general election by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Conservative Party wins the most seats and forms the government in the next United Kingdom general election held by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
UK Electoral Commission or House of Commons official records.
Market Title
Will the Conservative Party win the next UK general election by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Conservative Party wins the most seats and forms the government in the next United Kingdom general election held by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission.
Resolution Source
UK Electoral Commission or House of Commons official records.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Paris, France on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 12°C. No: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Paris on June 15, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the range of lowest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings. This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all relevant data is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 11°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Paris, France on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 12°C. No: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Paris on June 15, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the range of lowest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings. This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all relevant data is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 11°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will a major breakthrough in pancreatic cancer treatment increase 5-year survival rate above 30% by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if new treatments raise the 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer above 30% according to official statistics.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published data from cancer research organizations.
Resolution Source
American Cancer Society or SEER database.
Market Title
Will a major breakthrough in pancreatic cancer treatment increase 5-year survival rate above 30% by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if new treatments raise the 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer above 30% according to official statistics.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published data from cancer research organizations.
Resolution Source
American Cancer Society or SEER database.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Chemistry be awarded for work on mRNA technology by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nobel Prize in Chemistry (2025 or 2026) recognizes contributions to mRNA vaccine or therapeutic technology.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Committee announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize in Chemistry be awarded for work on mRNA technology by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nobel Prize in Chemistry (2025 or 2026) recognizes contributions to mRNA vaccine or therapeutic technology.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Committee announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title Will a politician win an election using only AI-generated campaign materials in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a candidate wins a significant election (national or state level) where the entire public campaign was conducted primarily with AI-generated content.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Election victory confirmed with evidence of AI dominance.
Resolution Source Official election results and major media analysis.
Market Title Will a politician win an election using only AI-generated campaign materials in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a candidate wins a significant election (national or state level) where the entire public campaign was conducted primarily with AI-generated content.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Election victory confirmed with evidence of AI dominance.
Resolution Source Official election results and major media analysis.
Market Title Will a major world leader claim to have communicated with extraterrestrials in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any sitting head of state or major world leader publicly claims direct communication with extraterrestrial beings by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public statement or interview widely reported by major media.
Resolution Source BBC, Reuters, or AP News.
Market Title Will a major world leader claim to have communicated with extraterrestrials in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any sitting head of state or major world leader publicly claims direct communication with extraterrestrial beings by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public statement or interview widely reported by major media.
Resolution Source BBC, Reuters, or AP News.
Market Title
Will “House of the Dragon” Season 3 premiere by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Season 3 of the HBO series “House of the Dragon” is released by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere on HBO or Max.
Resolution Source
HBO / Max official announcements.
Market Title
Will “House of the Dragon” Season 3 premiere by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Season 3 of the HBO series “House of the Dragon” is released by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere on HBO or Max.
Resolution Source
HBO / Max official announcements.
Market Title
Will the 2026 Academy Awards be hosted by a comedian?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the host of the 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) is a recognized stand-up comedian or comedy actor.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Resolution Source
Oscars.org or Academy official press release.
Market Title
Will the 2026 Academy Awards be hosted by a comedian?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the host of the 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) is a recognized stand-up comedian or comedy actor.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official announcement by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Resolution Source
Oscars.org or Academy official press release.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in New York City, USA on June 8, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 22°C. No: The temperature is not 22°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in New York City on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will use the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) on June 8, 2026 as the baseline for calculating the temperature range.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website. Specifically, it will use the highest temperatures recorded at the JFK International Airport weather station for all time periods on that day (once the information is finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings. This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all relevant data is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 22°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in New York City, USA on June 8, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 22°C. No: The temperature is not 22°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in New York City on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will use the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) on June 8, 2026 as the baseline for calculating the temperature range.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website. Specifically, it will use the highest temperatures recorded at the JFK International Airport weather station for all time periods on that day (once the information is finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings. This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all relevant data is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 22°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will AI replace 50% of customer service jobs in the US by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems replace at least 50% of human customer service positions in the United States.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
US Bureau of Labor Statistics or major employment reports.
Resolution Source
US Department of Labor data.
Market Title
Will AI replace 50% of customer service jobs in the US by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems replace at least 50% of human customer service positions in the United States.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
US Bureau of Labor Statistics or major employment reports.
Resolution Source
US Department of Labor data.
Market Title
Will Grok 4 be released by xAI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if xAI releases Grok 4 or a higher version by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official xAI announcement and public availability.
Resolution Source
xAI official website or Elon Musk/X announcements.
Market Title
Will Grok 4 be released by xAI by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if xAI releases Grok 4 or a higher version by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official xAI announcement and public availability.
Resolution Source
xAI official website or Elon Musk/X announcements.
Polymarket