PolymarketProposed Resolution Criteria: Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by U.S. forces (U.S. Navy, Air Force, etc.) explicitly claimed by the U.S. government or confirmed to have originated from U.S. assets or been carried out by U.S. forces will count. Actions by allied forces or unconfirmed actors will not count. Missile/drone/kinetic strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to U.S. forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, naval gunfire, or kinetic actions carried out by U.S. operatives in person (such as boarding parties). Primary resolution source: CENTCOM statements + a consensus of credible reporting In the event of conflicting reports, the market will prioritise official U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) releases or confirmed U.S. government statements, supplemented by the consensus of the above credible sources. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to the U.S., this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by U.S. forces (U.S. Navy, Air Force, etc.) explicitly claimed by the U.S. government or confirmed to have originated from U.S. assets or been carried out by U.S. forces will count. Actions by allied forces or unconfirmed actors will not count. Missile/drone/kinetic strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to U.S. forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, naval gunfire, or kinetic actions carried out by U.S. operatives in person (such as boarding parties). Primary resolution source: CENTCOM statements + a consensus of credible reporting In the event of conflicting reports, the market will prioritise official U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) releases or confirmed U.S. government statements, supplemented by the consensus of the above credible sources. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to the U.S., this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.