Matt参与话题 0消息总数 5

Matt 2026-06-03 09:26:08 ↗ Polymarket

***-Market Title*** Will the U.S. average electricity price exceed $0.20/kWh in June 2026? ***-Outcomes*** Yes / No ***-Market Description*** The U.S. city average price of electricity per kWh (BLS, FRED series APU000072610; not seasonally adjusted, monthly). The price has risen from about $0.13/kWh in 2020 to $0.194 in April 2026 (~45%), and has drawn media attention amid concerns that AI-driven data center expansion is raising power demand. June is typically when this series posts its largest seasonal jump (e.g., May 2025 $0.182 → June 2025 $0.190). With the recent ~7% year-over-year trend plus that seasonal jump, June 2026 should land around $0.200–0.204 — a close call leaning modestly "Yes." The June figure releases mid-July 2026. ***-Proposed Resolution Criteria*** Resolves "Yes" if the June 2026 observation for APU000072610 is strictly greater than $0.200/kWh; "No" if $0.200 or lower (exactly $0.200 = No). Uses the value as first published; later BLS revisions do not change the outcome. Resolves once the June value posts on FRED (~mid-July 2026). If no June value is published within 30 days of its scheduled release, resolution defers until it is; if the series is discontinued with no June value, resolves N/A and voids. ***-Resolution Source*** FRED series APU000072610, "Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average," U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

***-Market Title*** Will the U.S. average electricity price exceed $0.20/kWh in June 2026? ***-Outcomes*** Yes / No ***-Market Description*** The U.S. city average price of electricity per kWh (BLS, FRED series APU000072610; not seasonally adjusted, monthly). The price has risen from about $0.13/kWh in 2020 to $0.194 in April 2026 (~45%), and has drawn media attention amid concerns that AI-driven data center expansion is raising power demand. June is typically when this series posts its largest seasonal jump (e.g., May 2025 $0.182 → June 2025 $0.190). With the recent ~7% year-over-year trend plus that seasonal jump, June 2026 should land around $0.200–0.204 — a close call leaning modestly "Yes." The June figure releases mid-July 2026. ***-Proposed Resolution Criteria*** Resolves "Yes" if the June 2026 observation for APU000072610 is strictly greater than $0.200/kWh; "No" if $0.200 or lower (exactly $0.200 = No). Uses the value as first published; later BLS revisions do not change the outcome. Resolves once the June value posts on FRED (~mid-July 2026). If no June value is published within 30 days of its scheduled release, resolution defers until it is; if the series is discontinued with no June value, resolves N/A and voids. ***-Resolution Source*** FRED series APU000072610, "Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average," U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

Matt 2026-06-03 09:20:26 ↗ Polymarket

**-Market Title** Will the U.S. average electricity price exceed $0.195/kWh in May 2026? **-Outcomes** Yes / No **-Market Description** This market concerns the U.S. city average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and published on FRED under series ID APU000072610 (U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted, monthly). Electricity prices have been in the media recently due to AI-driven data center expansion. The price has climbed steadily over recent years — from about $0.13/kWh in 2020 to $0.194 in April 2026, a roughly 45% increase. That most recent observation, for April 2026, is $0.194/kWh (released May 12, 2026). The May 2026 figure is scheduled for release on June 10, 2026. Historically, the April-to-May change in this series is small (roughly +0.000 to +0.003 over the last several years), so the May 2026 value is expected to land near $0.195–0.197, making this threshold a genuine toss-up. **-Proposed Resolution Criteria** This market resolves "Yes" if the May 2026 observation for FRED series APU000072610 is strictly greater than $0.195/kWh. It resolves "No" if that value is $0.195/kWh or lower. A value of exactly $0.195 resolves "No." The market uses the value as first published for the May 2026 observation; subsequent BLS revisions do not change the outcome. The market resolves once the May 2026 value appears on FRED, expected on or about June 10, 2026. If no May 2026 value is published by July 10, 2026 (e.g., due to a government shutdown or reporting delay), resolution is deferred until the value is published. If the series is permanently discontinued with no May 2026 value ever released, the market resolves N/A and is voided. **-Resolution Source** FRED series APU000072610, "Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average," U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

**-Market Title** Will the U.S. average electricity price exceed $0.195/kWh in May 2026? **-Outcomes** Yes / No **-Market Description** This market concerns the U.S. city average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and published on FRED under series ID APU000072610 (U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted, monthly). Electricity prices have been in the media recently due to AI-driven data center expansion. The price has climbed steadily over recent years — from about $0.13/kWh in 2020 to $0.194 in April 2026, a roughly 45% increase. That most recent observation, for April 2026, is $0.194/kWh (released May 12, 2026). The May 2026 figure is scheduled for release on June 10, 2026. Historically, the April-to-May change in this series is small (roughly +0.000 to +0.003 over the last several years), so the May 2026 value is expected to land near $0.195–0.197, making this threshold a genuine toss-up. **-Proposed Resolution Criteria** This market resolves "Yes" if the May 2026 observation for FRED series APU000072610 is strictly greater than $0.195/kWh. It resolves "No" if that value is $0.195/kWh or lower. A value of exactly $0.195 resolves "No." The market uses the value as first published for the May 2026 observation; subsequent BLS revisions do not change the outcome. The market resolves once the May 2026 value appears on FRED, expected on or about June 10, 2026. If no May 2026 value is published by July 10, 2026 (e.g., due to a government shutdown or reporting delay), resolution is deferred until the value is published. If the series is permanently discontinued with no May 2026 value ever released, the market resolves N/A and is voided. **-Resolution Source** FRED series APU000072610, "Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average," U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

Matt 2026-06-03 07:02:46 ↗ Polymarket

Market idea: Price of electricity in the US in kWh for June?

Market idea: Price of electricity in the US in kWh for June?

Matt 2026-06-03 06:59:01 ↗ Kalshi

2026?

2026?

Matt 2026-06-03 03:45:58 ↗ Kalshi

Hi <@1353912513317572609> we are interested in a market around electricity prices and have identified a good public data oracle to support the market!

Hi <@1353912513317572609> we are interested in a market around electricity prices and have identified a good public data oracle to support the market!