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Analista.参与话题 9消息总数 501

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Analista. 2026-06-11 07:45:01 Polymarket

P4 The June 10 statement does not qualify. Per ABC News: "U.S. officials have said that the efforts have not been a revival of Project Freedom, the short-lived U.S. military initiative to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Rather, this most recent effort was a coordination effort where shippers could contact U.S. Central Command and in turn, receive information about where to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official." An information service is not a program to "escort, protect, or retrieve" ships, and the government's own characterization explicitly denies the equivalence the YES case requires. https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-claims-100-million-barrels-oil-200-ships/story?id=133759533 The components that might resemble protection were never announced. The air cover system via the Omani route is known only through "three people with knowledge of the transits" per the Financial Times, and the military security aboard commercial vessels only through anonymous sources per NBC News. No official has publicly confirmed or committed to either. The rules expressly exclude "reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements." https://www.ft.com/content/31450147-1b85-4ecf-a60d-0c0e3a298ae7 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-commercial-ships-military-security-hormuz-transit-sources-say-rcna343742 Trump's statement itself is a retrospective results report on a secret mission, disclosed in his words "because they just figured it out." It contains no definitive commitment that any program will be restarted. His only forward-looking comments, telling Fox News he was weighing a renewed operation but had made no final decision, are precisely the "expressions of openness" the rules disqualify. https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-claims-100-million-barrels-oil-200-ships/story?id=133759533

P4 The June 10 statement does not qualify. Per ABC News: "U.S. officials have said that the efforts have not been a revival of Project Freedom, the short-lived U.S. military initiative to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Rather, this most recent effort was a coordination effort where shippers could contact U.S. Central Command and in turn, receive information about where to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official." An information service is not a program to "escort, protect, or retrieve" ships, and the government's own characterization explicitly denies the equivalence the YES case requires. https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-claims-100-million-barrels-oil-200-ships/story?id=133759533 The components that might resemble protection were never announced. The air cover system via the Omani route is known only through "three people with knowledge of the transits" per the Financial Times, and the military security aboard commercial vessels only through anonymous sources per NBC News. No official has publicly confirmed or committed to either. The rules expressly exclude "reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements." https://www.ft.com/content/31450147-1b85-4ecf-a60d-0c0e3a298ae7 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-commercial-ships-military-security-hormuz-transit-sources-say-rcna343742 Trump's statement itself is a retrospective results report on a secret mission, disclosed in his words "because they just figured it out." It contains no definitive commitment that any program will be restarted. His only forward-looking comments, telling Fox News he was weighing a renewed operation but had made no final decision, are precisely the "expressions of openness" the rules disqualify. https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-claims-100-million-barrels-oil-200-ships/story?id=133759533

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:39:24 Polymarket

Where they are providing info to vessel freely transiting the strait, yes. Not escorting it

Where they are providing info to vessel freely transiting the strait, yes. Not escorting it

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:38:49 Polymarket

It's nothing like project freedom, regardless of what autistic hegseth says

It's nothing like project freedom, regardless of what autistic hegseth says

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:38:29 Polymarket

This was never denied, but it's not escorting ships

This was never denied, but it's not escorting ships

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:38:01 Polymarket

this is being said in the news

this is being said in the news

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:36:26 Polymarket

Escorted?

Escorted?

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:27:27 Polymarket

> U.S. forces are not escorting vessels, a defense official told CNBC last week. The military is communicating and coordinating with ships that seek to freely and safely transit Hormuz, the official said. This didn't qualify last week and still apply, nothing changed since

> U.S. forces are not escorting vessels, a defense official told CNBC last week. The military is communicating and coordinating with ships that seek to freely and safely transit Hormuz, the official said. This didn't qualify last week and still apply, nothing changed since

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:26:19 Polymarket

How did they protect these vessels explain me

How did they protect these vessels explain me

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:26:06 Polymarket

where is the protection?

where is the protection?

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:25:11 Polymarket

Is nothing like project freedom

Is nothing like project freedom

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:25:03 Polymarket

This is not an escorting program

This is not an escorting program

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:24:54 Polymarket

> U.S. forces are not escorting vessels, a defense official told CNBC last week. The military is communicating and coordinating with ships that seek to freely and safely transit Hormuz, the official said.

> U.S. forces are not escorting vessels, a defense official told CNBC last week. The military is communicating and coordinating with ships that seek to freely and safely transit Hormuz, the official said.

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:22:37 Polymarket

Air supports is neither escorting, protection or retrieve of these ships, is watching them from the above and sharing intel

Air supports is neither escorting, protection or retrieve of these ships, is watching them from the above and sharing intel

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:20:50 Polymarket

Rules are being stretched to fit Trump's truth post

Rules are being stretched to fit Trump's truth post

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:20:25 Polymarket

There are multiple problems with this

There are multiple problems with this

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:20:18 Polymarket

Also

Also

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:19:35 Polymarket

Exactly, so imagine you imagined that the operation was carried in secret and bet on it (against it being announced). It get disclosed at the end of it and magically it becames an announcment of restarting it???

Exactly, so imagine you imagined that the operation was carried in secret and bet on it (against it being announced). It get disclosed at the end of it and magically it becames an announcment of restarting it???

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:18:13 Polymarket

Can someone explaining me how did they "*escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships*"?

Can someone explaining me how did they "*escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships*"?

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:12:11 Polymarket

crazy

crazy

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:09:25 Polymarket

It was my dad birthday couldn't follow

It was my dad birthday couldn't follow

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:09:15 Polymarket

1) The rules are clearly about a forward looking announcement, not a secret operation being disclosed later. 2) rules are about "escort, protect, or retrieve" not giving information about safe routes

1) The rules are clearly about a forward looking announcement, not a secret operation being disclosed later. 2) rules are about "escort, protect, or retrieve" not giving information about safe routes

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:07:30 Polymarket

No

No

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:07:18 Polymarket

Did we lost our fucking mind

Did we lost our fucking mind

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:07:13 Polymarket

> An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify.

> An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify.

Analista. 2026-06-11 07:07:02 Polymarket

Rather, this most recent effort was a coordination effort where shippers could contact U.S. Central Command and in turn, receive information about where to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official.

Rather, this most recent effort was a coordination effort where shippers could contact U.S. Central Command and in turn, receive information about where to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official.

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:39:21 Polymarket

Damn this is the first good dinner you shared

Damn this is the first good dinner you shared

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:23:12 Polymarket

not really

not really

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:22:36 Polymarket

why are you listening drake worse album ever vro

why are you listening drake worse album ever vro

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:22:15 Polymarket

vro

vro

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:21:36 Polymarket

I guess chances of splitting a jackpot are separate from the chances of hitting the numbers

I guess chances of splitting a jackpot are separate from the chances of hitting the numbers

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:19:32 Polymarket

literally says won't improve your chance of winning

literally says won't improve your chance of winning

Analista. 2026-06-10 01:00:26 Polymarket

<@744559907944005634> knew

<@744559907944005634> knew

Analista. 2026-06-06 18:52:23 Polymarket

send me address

send me address

Analista. 2026-06-06 18:52:14 Polymarket

Yeah I'm willing to pay 10k for silver

Yeah I'm willing to pay 10k for silver

Analista. 2026-06-06 18:50:30 Polymarket

what the fuck is this based on

what the fuck is this based on

Analista. 2026-06-06 18:50:22 Polymarket

Also Car is bronze

Also Car is bronze

Analista. 2026-06-06 18:40:02 Polymarket

what the fuck is this

what the fuck is this

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:59:58 Polymarket

Don't worry that if indefinitive we'll know in less than 12h

Don't worry that if indefinitive we'll know in less than 12h

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:58:53 Polymarket

bro doesn't mean anything. Market requires the deadline to be extended, and yall taking for granted it's indefinitive, which is false

bro doesn't mean anything. Market requires the deadline to be extended, and yall taking for granted it's indefinitive, which is false

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:58:09 Polymarket

Doesn't matter, and yall keep forgetting that even if the ceasefire negotiated with lebanon was violated by hezbollah, is still an agreement between ISR and LEB gov

Doesn't matter, and yall keep forgetting that even if the ceasefire negotiated with lebanon was violated by hezbollah, is still an agreement between ISR and LEB gov

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:57:19 Polymarket

It's not that they agreed terms different to before

It's not that they agreed terms different to before

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:57:11 Polymarket

They agreed to implement the ceasefire again

They agreed to implement the ceasefire again

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:57:01 Polymarket

it's not bro

it's not bro

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:56:30 Polymarket

why are we assuming shit i don't understand

why are we assuming shit i don't understand

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:56:17 Polymarket

A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify **__if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension.__**

A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify **__if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension.__**

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:55:39 Polymarket

In the crazy remote chance there is you are right we'll definetly see someone noticing that the previous ceasefire was set to expire at EOM and it will surely be reported. But since they'll just meet again on the 22 it is clear that is either linked to that date > The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22, with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement. Or either to the original 29 june deadline

In the crazy remote chance there is you are right we'll definetly see someone noticing that the previous ceasefire was set to expire at EOM and it will surely be reported. But since they'll just meet again on the 22 it is clear that is either linked to that date > The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22, with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement. Or either to the original 29 june deadline

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:52:23 Polymarket

The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22 you cut a part here huh

The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22 you cut a part here huh

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:52:05 Polymarket

I'm not i know what I'm talking about

I'm not i know what I'm talking about

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:51:28 Polymarket

Clearly linked to negotiations

Clearly linked to negotiations

Analista. 2026-06-04 07:51:15 Polymarket

The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22, with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement.

The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22, with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement.

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