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Let's have this structure for Mojtaba Khamenei please. https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-july-3-july-10-2026#DUz4BQy
Let's have this structure for Mojtaba Khamenei please. https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-july-3-july-10-2026#DUz4BQy
<@941405798096076880> can we have a market about "Iran agreeing not to charge fee in Hormuz" in light of the latest negotiations and reports? I have structured it in the submit a polymarket for your review.
<@941405798096076880> can we have a market about "Iran agreeing not to charge fee in Hormuz" in light of the latest negotiations and reports? I have structured it in the submit a polymarket for your review.
-Market title: Iran permanently agrees not charge any fee in the strait of Hormuz. -Outcome: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran agrees, on a permanent basis, to not charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. -Market description: Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. -Proposed resolution criteria: Iran will be considered to have agreed to not charging such fees if: - Senior Iranian officials or another authorized representative of the Government of Iran publicly announces that Iran has definitively agreed to not charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Temporary agreements such as the 60-day free passage stipulated in the Islamabad MOU will not qualify. -Resolution source: The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Parliament speaker Bagher Qalibaf, Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi or the president of Iran.
-Market title: Iran permanently agrees not charge any fee in the strait of Hormuz. -Outcome: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran agrees, on a permanent basis, to not charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. -Market description: Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. -Proposed resolution criteria: Iran will be considered to have agreed to not charging such fees if: - Senior Iranian officials or another authorized representative of the Government of Iran publicly announces that Iran has definitively agreed to not charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Temporary agreements such as the 60-day free passage stipulated in the Islamabad MOU will not qualify. -Resolution source: The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Parliament speaker Bagher Qalibaf, Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi or the president of Iran.
Read the rules carefully: A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR.
Read the rules carefully: A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR.
So if Trump or Centcom says so, it might be enough to resolve
So if Trump or Centcom says so, it might be enough to resolve
I'll wait and see how this resolves before getting involved
I'll wait and see how this resolves before getting involved
Oh, I don't think IRGC will explicitly claim responsibility and would just make a general Statement regarding the need for adhering to the predetermined route.
Oh, I don't think IRGC will explicitly claim responsibility and would just make a general Statement regarding the need for adhering to the predetermined route.
So it resolved yes the other day?
So it resolved yes the other day?
Did the previous attack resolve yes although Iran did not claim responsibility?
Did the previous attack resolve yes although Iran did not claim responsibility?
Please a market about "Will Iran buy crops from the US?"
Please a market about "Will Iran buy crops from the US?"
Please add more dates
Please add more dates
https://polymarket.com/event/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306#cQ6Ghrb
https://polymarket.com/event/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306#cQ6Ghrb
Need this ASAP given the meeting tomorrow
Need this ASAP given the meeting tomorrow
https://polymarket.com/event/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306#ysG4gpf
https://polymarket.com/event/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306#ysG4gpf
Can we have an extension for Vance handshake with Iranians? <@941405798096076880>
Can we have an extension for Vance handshake with Iranians? <@941405798096076880>
Wrong. The highly enriched Uranium is fixed. Enrichment for civilian purposes is not fixed and is what Iran wants to continue. This doesn't make status quo clause meaningless. The status quo pertains to other aspects of the program such as Inspection as described by the spokesperson.
Wrong. The highly enriched Uranium is fixed. Enrichment for civilian purposes is not fixed and is what Iran wants to continue. This doesn't make status quo clause meaningless. The status quo pertains to other aspects of the program such as Inspection as described by the spokesperson.
Argument is that the issue has been clearly addressed in another clause and deferred to a later date. The status quo is about other aspects of the program such as Inspection regime as explained by the FM spokesperson
Argument is that the issue has been clearly addressed in another clause and deferred to a later date. The status quo is about other aspects of the program such as Inspection regime as explained by the FM spokesperson
If they have agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment at a later date and doesn't immediately follow it with, frozen until further discussion, it means there is no pause
If they have agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment at a later date and doesn't immediately follow it with, frozen until further discussion, it means there is no pause
They are agreeing to status quo of not allowing inspections. They have not agreed to anything regarding enrichment and side has officially claimed that Iran has to show compliance in this regard
They are agreeing to status quo of not allowing inspections. They have not agreed to anything regarding enrichment and side has officially claimed that Iran has to show compliance in this regard
Where is the word freeze, end, or pause in the text?
Where is the word freeze, end, or pause in the text?
Whether there is activity or not is left ambiguous. No one has given any commitment and it is an open question left for future talks
Whether there is activity or not is left ambiguous. No one has given any commitment and it is an open question left for future talks
If you were right, which you certainly are not, then you have to admit that this is not a "public" and "official" pledge as per the rules because Iranian negotiators are scared
If you were right, which you certainly are not, then you have to admit that this is not a "public" and "official" pledge as per the rules because Iranian negotiators are scared
Question: so what does this status quo mean? Answer: it means activity in facilities except Busheher will be prohibited. That's it. That's why they included this in the text.
Question: so what does this status quo mean? Answer: it means activity in facilities except Busheher will be prohibited. That's it. That's why they included this in the text.
Then it is not a public and official pledge because they would be beheaded.
Then it is not a public and official pledge because they would be beheaded.
If they wanted no enrichment until further talks, it would have been written as such
If they wanted no enrichment until further talks, it would have been written as such
They could just write it like that. But they didn't. Food for thought
They could just write it like that. But they didn't. Food for thought
The spokesperson tells you exactly what the status quo in the MOU says. The MOU also says the enrichment issue will be discussed later and never mentions the word freeze or pause because they didn't agree to it
The spokesperson tells you exactly what the status quo in the MOU says. The MOU also says the enrichment issue will be discussed later and never mentions the word freeze or pause because they didn't agree to it
Status quo: Iran will keep denying IAEA access and that's it. Nothing on enrichment. You can't have no enrichment without inspection by IAEA.
Status quo: Iran will keep denying IAEA access and that's it. Nothing on enrichment. You can't have no enrichment without inspection by IAEA.
Araghchi never made a pledge not to enrich.
Araghchi never made a pledge not to enrich.
We have the definition of status quo. Shut it down. The scam is over.
We have the definition of status quo. Shut it down. The scam is over.
Status quo means inspection in Busheher and no data on other facilities as per actual officials in Iran.
Status quo means inspection in Busheher and no data on other facilities as per actual officials in Iran.
It says public and official pledge
It says public and official pledge
Iran just gave their interpretation of what the status quo means. Stop scamming and interpreting nonsense.
Iran just gave their interpretation of what the status quo means. Stop scamming and interpreting nonsense.
This is what the status quo means. Enrichment is discussed in another clause which says the matter will be deferred entirely.
This is what the status quo means. Enrichment is discussed in another clause which says the matter will be deferred entirely.
Status quo definition just dropped, no need to speculate. It means No inspection and no data. Nothing regarding no enrichment.
Status quo definition just dropped, no need to speculate. It means No inspection and no data. Nothing regarding no enrichment.
Then the final text was released and this freeze was nowhere to be found.
Then the final text was released and this freeze was nowhere to be found.
Perfect
Perfect
Consensus of credible reporting regarding a public and official pledge by Iran not hearsay and interpretations.
Consensus of credible reporting regarding a public and official pledge by Iran not hearsay and interpretations.
Very easy. If the enrichment issue has been deferred to a later discussion, as specified in the text, then both are NO.
Very easy. If the enrichment issue has been deferred to a later discussion, as specified in the text, then both are NO.
Ok. Now you are talking. Then there is no public and official pledge by Iran regarding enrichment. It's ambiguous for both parties to go and buy time.
Ok. Now you are talking. Then there is no public and official pledge by Iran regarding enrichment. It's ambiguous for both parties to go and buy time.
Yes because they failed to defeat Iran and have no business dictating terms. They have left it open for future talks.
Yes because they failed to defeat Iran and have no business dictating terms. They have left it open for future talks.
Iran's position that they can continue to have their civilian nuclear program on their own soil.
Iran's position that they can continue to have their civilian nuclear program on their own soil.
He is hoping to get Iran to agree to no enrichment when the issue is raised in later stages of talks as stipulated in the text
He is hoping to get Iran to agree to no enrichment when the issue is raised in later stages of talks as stipulated in the text
Any person familiar enough with Iran's nuclear dossier understands this ambiguity. Those arguing for yes have read one Reuters article and do not understand the nuances. Whatever this is, it is far from a public official pledge to end or pause enrichment.
Any person familiar enough with Iran's nuclear dossier understands this ambiguity. Those arguing for yes have read one Reuters article and do not understand the nuances. Whatever this is, it is far from a public official pledge to end or pause enrichment.
Hey, there are smart people here after all. People fail to understand the advantage of ambiguity in texts and how hours go into writing a text between countries. Every word is carefully chosen. Here they wanted to avoid the zero enrichment issue that was the main obstacle for a deal before and after the war.
Hey, there are smart people here after all. People fail to understand the advantage of ambiguity in texts and how hours go into writing a text between countries. Every word is carefully chosen. Here they wanted to avoid the zero enrichment issue that was the main obstacle for a deal before and after the war.
Let's hear it from the Iranian negotiators, as per the rules we require public and official Iranian pledge.
Let's hear it from the Iranian negotiators, as per the rules we require public and official Iranian pledge.
He is clearly talking about future agreements. They don't have the agreement yet. Read his words.
He is clearly talking about future agreements. They don't have the agreement yet. Read his words.
"Public" and "official" are written in the rules. Read it again
"Public" and "official" are written in the rules. Read it again
Thanks. This is actually an argument for no agreement yet on enrichment.
Thanks. This is actually an argument for no agreement yet on enrichment.
Not publicly
Not publicly
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