聊天记录
共 41 条，显示第 1-41 条
-Market Title
Will Brent Crude Oil close above $92 per barrel before September 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract records a daily closing price above $92.00 on any trading day prior to September 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude futures closing market records.
-Resolution source
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Bloomberg commodity charts.
-Market Title
Will Brent Crude Oil close above $92 per barrel before September 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract records a daily closing price above $92.00 on any trading day prior to September 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude futures closing market records.
-Resolution source
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Bloomberg commodity charts.
-Market Title
Will Brent Crude Oil close above $92 per barrel before September 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract records a daily closing price above $92.00 on any trading day prior to September 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude futures closing market records.
-Resolution source
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Bloomberg commodity charts.
-Market Title
Will Brent Crude Oil close above $92 per barrel before September 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract records a daily closing price above $92.00 on any trading day prior to September 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude futures closing market records.
-Resolution source
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Bloomberg commodity charts.
-Market Title
Will Disney delay the theatrical release date of its next major Star Wars film in July 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if The Walt Disney Company officially announces a delay or postponement of its next scheduled theatrical Star Wars movie release between July 10, 2026, and July 31, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on official press releases or updated release schedule slates distributed to exhibitors by Disney.
-Resolution source
Walt Disney Company Investor Relations / Press room
Variety / The Hollywood Reporter.
-Market Title
Will Disney delay the theatrical release date of its next major Star Wars film in July 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if The Walt Disney Company officially announces a delay or postponement of its next scheduled theatrical Star Wars movie release between July 10, 2026, and July 31, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
Based on official press releases or updated release schedule slates distributed to exhibitors by Disney.
-Resolution source
Walt Disney Company Investor Relations / Press room
Variety / The Hollywood Reporter.
Market Title
Will the mainland student arrested at PolyU for a fake certificate be convicted before December 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the 22-year-old mainland man arrested on July 8 at Hong Kong Polytechnic University for using a forged graduation certificate is formally convicted in a Hong Kong court before December 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
If charges are dropped, or the trial is deferred past Dec 1 without a verdict, the market resolves to "No".
-Resolution source
Hong Kong Judiciary Court Judgments (judiciary.hk)
Hong Kong Police Force press briefings.
Market Title
Will the mainland student arrested at PolyU for a fake certificate be convicted before December 1, 2026?
-Outcomes
Yes, No
-Market Description
This market resolves to "Yes" if the 22-year-old mainland man arrested on July 8 at Hong Kong Polytechnic University for using a forged graduation certificate is formally convicted in a Hong Kong court before December 1, 2026.
-Proposed Resolution Criteria
If charges are dropped, or the trial is deferred past Dec 1 without a verdict, the market resolves to "No".
-Resolution source
Hong Kong Judiciary Court Judgments (judiciary.hk)
Hong Kong Police Force press briefings.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title: Will the official US 250th Anniversary celebration proceed as scheduled in Washington, D.C. on July 4, 2026?
Outcomes: Yes / No
Market Description: This market tracks whether the core official events marking the 250th anniversary of US independence take place as planned in Washington, D.C. on July 4, 2026, without cancellation or postponement.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if the official White House/D.C. government-scheduled July 4, 2026 celebration events occur as planned. Resolves NO if the core events are canceled or postponed due to security, weather, or other circumstances.
Resolution Source: White House official website; Washington, D.C. government official website.
Market Title: Will the official US 250th Anniversary celebration proceed as scheduled in Washington, D.C. on July 4, 2026?
Outcomes: Yes / No
Market Description: This market tracks whether the core official events marking the 250th anniversary of US independence take place as planned in Washington, D.C. on July 4, 2026, without cancellation or postponement.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if the official White House/D.C. government-scheduled July 4, 2026 celebration events occur as planned. Resolves NO if the core events are canceled or postponed due to security, weather, or other circumstances.
Resolution Source: White House official website; Washington, D.C. government official website.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office figures.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title
Will Deadpool 3 open above $140 million in North America by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the next Deadpool film grosses more than $140 million USD in its North American opening weekend.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Final audited domestic opening weekend box office.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo, Deadline Hollywood, or Marvel Studios reports.
Market Title:
Will the France vs. Norway match (June 26) end level at halftime?
Outcomes:
Yes / No
Market Description:
France and Norway, both already through to the knockout stage at 2-0 in Group I, meet in a winner-takes-top-spot clash on June 26, 2026 at Gillette Stadium.
Proposed Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to "Yes" if the score is tied at the end of the first 45 minutes (plus stoppage time) of the France vs. Norway match. It resolves to "No" if either team leads at halftime.
Resolution Source:
FIFA.com official match report
Market Title:
Will the France vs. Norway match (June 26) end level at halftime?
Outcomes:
Yes / No
Market Description:
France and Norway, both already through to the knockout stage at 2-0 in Group I, meet in a winner-takes-top-spot clash on June 26, 2026 at Gillette Stadium.
Proposed Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to "Yes" if the score is tied at the end of the first 45 minutes (plus stoppage time) of the France vs. Norway match. It resolves to "No" if either team leads at halftime.
Resolution Source:
FIFA.com official match report
Market Title: Will Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announce an additional Bitcoin purchase this week (June 23–27)?
Outcomes: Yes / No
Market Description: Strategy has continued periodic BTC accumulation announcements in 2026; this market tracks whether a new purchase disclosure occurs this week.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if Strategy (MSTR) publicly discloses (via SEC filing, press release, or official company statement) an additional Bitcoin purchase between June 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to "No" if no such disclosure is made.
Resolution Source: Strategy (MSTR) SEC filings and official press releases
Market Title: Will Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announce an additional Bitcoin purchase this week (June 23–27)?
Outcomes: Yes / No
Market Description: Strategy has continued periodic BTC accumulation announcements in 2026; this market tracks whether a new purchase disclosure occurs this week.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if Strategy (MSTR) publicly discloses (via SEC filing, press release, or official company statement) an additional Bitcoin purchase between June 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to "No" if no such disclosure is made.
Resolution Source: Strategy (MSTR) SEC filings and official press releases
Market Title: Will Colombia win their Group K World Cup match against Portugal?
Outcomes: Colombia / Draw / Portugal
Market Description: Colombia face Portugal in a 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K match on June 27, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens — the decisive match for Group K's top spot.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Colombia" if Colombia wins the match in regulation (including stoppage time); "Portugal" if Portugal wins; or "Draw" if the match ends level after regulation.
Resolution Source: FIFA.com official match report
Market Title: Will Colombia win their Group K World Cup match against Portugal?
Outcomes: Colombia / Draw / Portugal
Market Description: Colombia face Portugal in a 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K match on June 27, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens — the decisive match for Group K's top spot.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Colombia" if Colombia wins the match in regulation (including stoppage time); "Portugal" if Portugal wins; or "Draw" if the match ends level after regulation.
Resolution Source: FIFA.com official match report
Market Title
Will a Christopher Nolan film in 2026 open above $100 million domestically by August 31?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any new Christopher Nolan-directed film exceeds $100 million in North American opening weekend by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official domestic opening gross.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo or Warner Bros.
Market Title
Will a Christopher Nolan film in 2026 open above $100 million domestically by August 31?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any new Christopher Nolan-directed film exceeds $100 million in North American opening weekend by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official domestic opening gross.
Resolution Source
Box Office Mojo or Warner Bros.
Market Title
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner come from Europe?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a European team (UEFA member).
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FIFA official champion announcement.
Resolution Source
FIFA official website and final results.
Market Title
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner come from Europe?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a European team (UEFA member).
Proposed Resolution Criteria
FIFA official champion announcement.
Resolution Source
FIFA official website and final results.
Market Title
Will a host nation (USA, Canada, or Mexico) reach the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any of the three host nations (United States, Canada, or Mexico) reaches the semifinal stage.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official FIFA tournament results.
Resolution Source
FIFA official website and bracket.
Market Title
Will a host nation (USA, Canada, or Mexico) reach the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any of the three host nations (United States, Canada, or Mexico) reaches the semifinal stage.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official FIFA tournament results.
Resolution Source
FIFA official website and bracket.
Market Title
Will any major US-listed tech company with over $100 billion market cap be acquired by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any US-listed technology company with a market capitalization over $100 billion is acquired (full acquisition) by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Completed acquisition of the entire company.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Bloomberg, or Reuters.
Market Title
Will any major US-listed tech company with over $100 billion market cap be acquired by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any US-listed technology company with a market capitalization over $100 billion is acquired (full acquisition) by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Completed acquisition of the entire company.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Bloomberg, or Reuters.
Market Title
Will any company achieve a $100 billion+ IPO valuation in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any company completes an IPO with a valuation of $100 billion USD or higher by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official IPO final valuation.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Bloomberg, or Reuters.
Market Title
Will any company achieve a $100 billion+ IPO valuation in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any company completes an IPO with a valuation of $100 billion USD or higher by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official IPO final valuation.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Bloomberg, or Reuters.
Market Title
Will any of Apple, NVIDIA, or Tesla stock reach an all-time high in July 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Apple, NVIDIA, or Tesla sets a new all-time high stock price during July 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified new record closing or intraday high.
Resolution Source
Nasdaq or Bloomberg historical data.
Market Title
Will any of Apple, NVIDIA, or Tesla stock reach an all-time high in July 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Apple, NVIDIA, or Tesla sets a new all-time high stock price during July 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified new record closing or intraday high.
Resolution Source
Nasdaq or Bloomberg historical data.
Market Title
Will any AI model score above 40% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes / No
Market Description
This market tracks whether any AI model achieves a score above 40.0% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a benchmark of exceptionally difficult expert-level questions spanning mathematics, sciences, humanities, and professional domains, developed by the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) and Scale AI to probe the limits of frontier AI capabilities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a verified score above 40.0% on HLE, as reported on the official HLE leaderboard maintained by CAIS or Scale AI, or in a peer-reviewed publication by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no qualifying result appears by the resolution date.
Resolution Source
Official HLE leaderboard (aisafety.org or scale.com), or peer-reviewed publication indexed on arXiv or a major ML conference proceedings.
Market Title
Will any AI model score above 40% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes / No
Market Description
This market tracks whether any AI model achieves a score above 40.0% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a benchmark of exceptionally difficult expert-level questions spanning mathematics, sciences, humanities, and professional domains, developed by the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) and Scale AI to probe the limits of frontier AI capabilities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a verified score above 40.0% on HLE, as reported on the official HLE leaderboard maintained by CAIS or Scale AI, or in a peer-reviewed publication by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no qualifying result appears by the resolution date.
Resolution Source
Official HLE leaderboard (aisafety.org or scale.com), or peer-reviewed publication indexed on arXiv or a major ML conference proceedings.
Market Title
Will at least 5 new frontier AI models be released in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if five or more distinct frontier-level models (from different organizations) are publicly released in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed major model releases.
Resolution Source
Official company announcements and AI industry trackers.
Market Title
Will at least 5 new frontier AI models be released in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if five or more distinct frontier-level models (from different organizations) are publicly released in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed major model releases.
Resolution Source
Official company announcements and AI industry trackers.
Market Title
Will Russia control at least 20% of Ukraine’s territory as of August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces control 20% or more of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory as of August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent territorial control assessment.
Resolution Source
ISW control maps or US State Department assessment.
Market Title
Will Russia control at least 20% of Ukraine’s territory as of August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces control 20% or more of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory as of August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent territorial control assessment.
Resolution Source
ISW control maps or US State Department assessment.
Market Title
Will the Strait of Hormuz crisis be officially declared resolved by major powers by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States, European Union, or UN officially declare the Strait of Hormuz maritime security situation resolved and returned to normal by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Joint or individual official statements.
Resolution Source
US State Department, EU External Action Service, or United Nations.
Market Title
Will the Strait of Hormuz crisis be officially declared resolved by major powers by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States, European Union, or UN officially declare the Strait of Hormuz maritime security situation resolved and returned to normal by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Joint or individual official statements.
Resolution Source
US State Department, EU External Action Service, or United Nations.
Market Title
Will a far-right or populist party lead the next government in Sweden by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Sweden Democrats or a populist/right-wing coalition leads the Swedish government after the next election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Riksdag election results and government formation.
Resolution Source
Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten).
Market Title
Will a far-right or populist party lead the next government in Sweden by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Sweden Democrats or a populist/right-wing coalition leads the Swedish government after the next election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Riksdag election results and government formation.
Resolution Source
Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten).
Market Title
Will Donald Trump appoint more than 5 former Fox News personalities to government positions by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if more than 5 individuals with prominent Fox News backgrounds are appointed to significant government roles.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed appointments.
Resolution Source
White House official records.
Market Title
Will Donald Trump appoint more than 5 former Fox News personalities to government positions by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if more than 5 individuals with prominent Fox News backgrounds are appointed to significant government roles.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Confirmed appointments.
Resolution Source
White House official records.
Market Title
Will the 2026 US midterm elections be called before midnight ET on election night?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if major news networks project control of both the House and Senate before midnight Eastern Time on November 3, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus projections by AP, CNN, Fox, and NBC.
Resolution Source
Major US news networks election coverage.
Market Title
Will the 2026 US midterm elections be called before midnight ET on election night?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if major news networks project control of both the House and Senate before midnight Eastern Time on November 3, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Consensus projections by AP, CNN, Fox, and NBC.
Resolution Source
Major US news networks election coverage.
Market Title
Will a successful human trial for lab-grown blood transfusion be completed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a clinical trial demonstrates safe and effective use of lab-grown blood in human patients.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published trial results.
Resolution Source
New England Journal of Medicine or NHS/Blood authority reports.
Market Title
Will a successful human trial for lab-grown blood transfusion be completed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a clinical trial demonstrates safe and effective use of lab-grown blood in human patients.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published trial results.
Resolution Source
New England Journal of Medicine or NHS/Blood authority reports.
Market Title
Will a new Ethereum Layer 2 using zkVM technology launch mainnet by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new Ethereum Layer 2 project utilizing zero-knowledge Virtual Machine (zkVM) technology launches its public mainnet by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official mainnet launch announcement and live network.
Resolution Source
Project official blog and Etherscan-like explorer.
Market Title
Will a new Ethereum Layer 2 using zkVM technology launch mainnet by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new Ethereum Layer 2 project utilizing zero-knowledge Virtual Machine (zkVM) technology launches its public mainnet by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official mainnet launch announcement and live network.
Resolution Source
Project official blog and Etherscan-like explorer.
Market Title
Will any continent experience a billion-dollar natural disaster event by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any natural disaster (earthquake, hurricane, flood, wildfire, etc.) causes over $1 billion USD in damages worldwide by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
NOAA, Munich Re, or Swiss Re disaster damage estimates.
Resolution Source
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information or reinsurance reports.
Market Title
Will any continent experience a billion-dollar natural disaster event by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if any natural disaster (earthquake, hurricane, flood, wildfire, etc.) causes over $1 billion USD in damages worldwide by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
NOAA, Munich Re, or Swiss Re disaster damage estimates.
Resolution Source
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information or reinsurance reports.
Market Title
Will it rain in Seoul on June 7, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if measurable precipitation is recorded in Seoul on June 7, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Korea Meteorological Administration data.
Resolution Source
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
Market Title
Will it rain in Seoul on June 7, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if measurable precipitation is recorded in Seoul on June 7, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Korea Meteorological Administration data.
Resolution Source
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
Market Title
Will a new bizarre world record involving extreme human endurance be set in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new Guinness World Record involving extreme human endurance (such as longest time without sleep, underwater, or similar bizarre feat) is officially set in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Guinness World Records certification.
Resolution Source
Guinness World Records official database.
Market Title
Will a new bizarre world record involving extreme human endurance be set in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new Guinness World Record involving extreme human endurance (such as longest time without sleep, underwater, or similar bizarre feat) is officially set in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Guinness World Records certification.
Resolution Source
Guinness World Records official database.
Market Title
Will a major Hollywood studio announce a new major film franchise reboot in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a major studio (Disney, Warner Bros, Universal, Paramount, or Sony) officially announces a reboot or new installment of a major legacy film franchise in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official studio announcement with production plans.
Resolution Source
Studio press releases or major entertainment news outlets.
Market Title
Will a major Hollywood studio announce a new major film franchise reboot in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a major studio (Disney, Warner Bros, Universal, Paramount, or Sony) officially announces a reboot or new installment of a major legacy film franchise in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official studio announcement with production plans.
Resolution Source
Studio press releases or major entertainment news outlets.
Market Title
Will AI-related stocks drive the Nasdaq to new all-time highs in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nasdaq Composite reaches a new all-time high in 2026 primarily attributed to AI and technology sector performance.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
New record close with consensus media attribution to AI stocks.
Resolution Source
Nasdaq official data and major financial media (WSJ, Bloomberg).
Market Title
Will AI-related stocks drive the Nasdaq to new all-time highs in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Nasdaq Composite reaches a new all-time high in 2026 primarily attributed to AI and technology sector performance.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
New record close with consensus media attribution to AI stocks.
Resolution Source
Nasdaq official data and major financial media (WSJ, Bloomberg).
Market Title
Will Threads by Instagram surpass 500 million monthly active users by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta’s Threads platform reaches over 500 million monthly active users by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta quarterly earnings or announcements.
Resolution Source
Meta Investor Relations reports.
Market Title
Will Threads by Instagram surpass 500 million monthly active users by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta’s Threads platform reaches over 500 million monthly active users by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta quarterly earnings or announcements.
Resolution Source
Meta Investor Relations reports.
Market Title
Will a self-improving AI system be publicly demonstrated by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if an AI system capable of autonomously improving its own architecture or code is publicly shown.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Demonstration accepted by AI research community.
Resolution Source
Major AI conferences or arXiv publications.
Market Title
Will a self-improving AI system be publicly demonstrated by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if an AI system capable of autonomously improving its own architecture or code is publicly shown.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Demonstration accepted by AI research community.
Resolution Source
Major AI conferences or arXiv publications.
Market Title
Will England win the UEFA Euro 2028 qualifier group by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if England tops their qualifying group for UEFA Euro 2028 by the end of June 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
UEFA official group standings.
Resolution Source
UEFA official website and standings.
Market Title
Will England win the UEFA Euro 2028 qualifier group by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if England tops their qualifying group for UEFA Euro 2028 by the end of June 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
UEFA official group standings.
Resolution Source
UEFA official website and standings.
Polymarket