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just tested Fable 5 on this small mispriced market, it is leaning ~ 70% YES. https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
just tested Fable 5 on this small mispriced market, it is leaning ~ 70% YES. https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
If you study the case carefully you will see that this is leaning YES
If you study the case carefully you will see that this is leaning YES
Strong case for YES. Only argument for no is "reached" ... but note that the market rules resolve based on municipality of Choukine, which includes hills and fields. https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
Strong case for YES. Only argument for no is "reached" ... but note that the market rules resolve based on municipality of Choukine, which includes hills and fields. https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
the market resolves on municipality, also there is strong evidence of operational activity in the area, the town was ordered to evacuate on May 30 ... it is basically empty
the market resolves on municipality, also there is strong evidence of operational activity in the area, the town was ordered to evacuate on May 30 ... it is basically empty
https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
I did post it in proposal-requests
I did post it in proposal-requests
what is going on with this small market? I posted strong evidence for YES that should resolve it ... https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7
what is going on with this small market? I posted strong evidence for YES that should resolve it ... https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7
Why is this still not resolved YES? https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
Why is this still not resolved YES? https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/1450542379781062837/1513274969570676786
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 Proposed: P2 – YES The following four articles explicitly report that the Choukine position has been reached by Israeli forces. The fifth is an official evacuation order that confirms military activity in Choukine and the surrounding villages. Note also that the market rules explicitly resolve on the municipality, not just the village — which technically includes the surrounding fields and hills, well beyond the residential area of Choukine itself. On the basis of the consensus of credible reporting, which the market rules permit, this resolves YES. 1. Yahoo News (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html 2. Zona Integritas (31 May) – "Israeli troops reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.zonaintegritas.news/israeli-forces-advance-nabatieh-lebanon 3. Al Jazeera (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/31/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanons-litani-river-how-significant-is-it 4. The Levant Files (31 May) – "Troops have reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the edge of Nabatieh" https://www.thelevantfiles.org/2026/05/israel-widens-lebanon-occupation-and.html 5. Official IDF Evacuation Order – @AvichayAdraee (30 May) – explicitly names Shoueikin (Choukine) / شوكين https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/2060604239341109616
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 Proposed: P2 – YES The following four articles explicitly report that the Choukine position has been reached by Israeli forces. The fifth is an official evacuation order that confirms military activity in Choukine and the surrounding villages. Note also that the market rules explicitly resolve on the municipality, not just the village — which technically includes the surrounding fields and hills, well beyond the residential area of Choukine itself. On the basis of the consensus of credible reporting, which the market rules permit, this resolves YES. 1. Yahoo News (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html 2. Zona Integritas (31 May) – "Israeli troops reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.zonaintegritas.news/israeli-forces-advance-nabatieh-lebanon 3. Al Jazeera (31 May) – "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/31/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanons-litani-river-how-significant-is-it 4. The Levant Files (31 May) – "Troops have reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the edge of Nabatieh" https://www.thelevantfiles.org/2026/05/israel-widens-lebanon-occupation-and.html 5. Official IDF Evacuation Order – @AvichayAdraee (30 May) – explicitly names Shoueikin (Choukine) / شوكين https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/2060604239341109616
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 Proposed: P2 - YES Resolution criteria: Resolves on troops who "physically enter the municipality of Choukine." That's a chartered 250-ha polygon — village plus farmland (Decree 219), pop ~2,500. Bar is entry, not control. Key evidence: 1. Al Jazeera (31 May): troops "reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine." The "outskirts of Nabatieh" tail attaches to Nabatieh — AJ's verb for Choukine is "reached the town." 2. Geography: Forces pushed past Mayfadoun (GlobalSecurity/PressTV/Irish Times; corroborated by the municipal record). Mayfadoun abuts Choukine municipality with no buffer between them — so "past Mayfadoun, at Choukine's edge" puts the line crossed. In a 250-ha polygon, the edge is interior municipal land of Choukine. 3. Timing: Entry dated 30–31 May, contemporaneously and multiply reported — the 48-hour confirmation window is already satisfied. Risk note: Most outlets say "outskirts"/"attempts to occupy"; only AJ says "reached the town." A resolver demanding consensus on entered, or reading "Choukine" as the village not the municipality, lands NO. Verdict: YES, on the literal municipal standard, a credible-source ground-entry verb, and a sourced adjacency that places the edge inside the 250-ha polygon. Sources: Al Jazeera (31 May): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/31/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanons-litani-river-how-significant-is-it GlobalSecurity / PressTV (past Mayfadoun): https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/05/mil-260530-presstv01.htm Irish Times (past Mayfadoun, approaching Choukine): https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/05/31/israeli-army-captures-strategic-beaufort-castle-as-troops-push-deeper-into-lebanon/ Wikipedia (Choukine municipality, Decree 219, 250 ha): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choukine
Market: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 Proposed: P2 - YES Resolution criteria: Resolves on troops who "physically enter the municipality of Choukine." That's a chartered 250-ha polygon — village plus farmland (Decree 219), pop ~2,500. Bar is entry, not control. Key evidence: 1. Al Jazeera (31 May): troops "reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine." The "outskirts of Nabatieh" tail attaches to Nabatieh — AJ's verb for Choukine is "reached the town." 2. Geography: Forces pushed past Mayfadoun (GlobalSecurity/PressTV/Irish Times; corroborated by the municipal record). Mayfadoun abuts Choukine municipality with no buffer between them — so "past Mayfadoun, at Choukine's edge" puts the line crossed. In a 250-ha polygon, the edge is interior municipal land of Choukine. 3. Timing: Entry dated 30–31 May, contemporaneously and multiply reported — the 48-hour confirmation window is already satisfied. Risk note: Most outlets say "outskirts"/"attempts to occupy"; only AJ says "reached the town." A resolver demanding consensus on entered, or reading "Choukine" as the village not the municipality, lands NO. Verdict: YES, on the literal municipal standard, a credible-source ground-entry verb, and a sourced adjacency that places the edge inside the 250-ha polygon. Sources: Al Jazeera (31 May): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/31/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanons-litani-river-how-significant-is-it GlobalSecurity / PressTV (past Mayfadoun): https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/05/mil-260530-presstv01.htm Irish Times (past Mayfadoun, approaching Choukine): https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/05/31/israeli-army-captures-strategic-beaufort-castle-as-troops-push-deeper-into-lebanon/ Wikipedia (Choukine municipality, Decree 219, 250 ha): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choukine
Request to propose YES for May 31 and June 7 Choukine markets: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 4th paragraph quote: "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the outskirts of Nabatieh" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html May 31 P2, June 7 P2.
Request to propose YES for May 31 and June 7 Choukine markets: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 4th paragraph quote: "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the outskirts of Nabatieh" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html May 31 P2, June 7 P2.
Request to propose YES for May 31 and June 7 Choukine markets: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 4th paragraph quote: "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the outskirts of Nabatieh" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html May 31 P2, June 7 P2.
Request to propose YES for May 31 and June 7 Choukine markets: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by-june-7 4th paragraph quote: "Israeli troops have reached the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Choukine on the outskirts of Nabatieh" https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israeli-forces-push-past-lebanon-133954099.html May 31 P2, June 7 P2.
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