PolymarketMarket Title When will France officially extend its nuclear deterrence umbrella to a European partner? Outcomes * Before July 31, 2026 * August 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026 * September 1, 2026 – September 30, 2026 * October 1, 2026 – October 31, 2026 * November 1, 2026 or later * No extension announced before January 1, 2028 Market Description This market resolves based on the date on which France officially announces the extension of its nuclear deterrence umbrella, nuclear protection framework, or equivalent nuclear deterrence arrangement to at least one European partner country. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the outcome corresponding to the date of the first official announcement by the French government or the partner government confirming participation in a French nuclear deterrence framework or nuclear umbrella arrangement. The earliest qualifying announcement determines the outcome. Resolution Source Official statements from the French Presidency (Élysée), the French Ministry of Armed Forces, official government publications of participating countries, treaties, or formal bilateral agreements. Consensus reporting from major international media may be used if necessary.
Market Title When will France officially extend its nuclear deterrence umbrella to a European partner? Outcomes * Before July 31, 2026 * August 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026 * September 1, 2026 – September 30, 2026 * October 1, 2026 – October 31, 2026 * November 1, 2026 or later * No extension announced before January 1, 2028 Market Description This market resolves based on the date on which France officially announces the extension of its nuclear deterrence umbrella, nuclear protection framework, or equivalent nuclear deterrence arrangement to at least one European partner country. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the outcome corresponding to the date of the first official announcement by the French government or the partner government confirming participation in a French nuclear deterrence framework or nuclear umbrella arrangement. The earliest qualifying announcement determines the outcome. Resolution Source Official statements from the French Presidency (Élysée), the French Ministry of Armed Forces, official government publications of participating countries, treaties, or formal bilateral agreements. Consensus reporting from major international media may be used if necessary.