PolymarketMarket Title Will Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez be elected Governor of Sonora in 2027? Outcomes Yes / No Market Description Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez, current mayor of Hermosillo and leading PAN gubernatorial prospect, has publicly announced his intention to run for Governor of Sonora in the 2027 state elections. He holds the strongest opposition support at approximately 32% internal preference within PAN. However, Morena leads statewide voting intentions at ~43%, and in head-to-head polling, Morena's Lorenia Valles leads Astiazarán 49.7% to 35.9%. The winner will serve a constitutionally shortened 3-year term (September 13, 2027 – September 12, 2030), validated by Mexico's Supreme Court. Sonora has been governed by Morena since 2021. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market resolves Yes if Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez is officially declared the winner of the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Sonora (IEE Sonora) or confirmed by the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF) following any legal challenges. Resolves No if any other candidate is declared governor-elect, if Astiazarán does not appear on the ballot, or if the election does not take place before December 31, 2027. Resolution Source Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Sonora (IEE Sonora): https://www.ieesonora.org.mx Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF): https://www.te.gob.mx Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE): https://www.ine.mx Expected resolution date: on or after June 6, 2027, once official results are certified.
Market Title Will Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez be elected Governor of Sonora in 2027? Outcomes Yes / No Market Description Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez, current mayor of Hermosillo and leading PAN gubernatorial prospect, has publicly announced his intention to run for Governor of Sonora in the 2027 state elections. He holds the strongest opposition support at approximately 32% internal preference within PAN. However, Morena leads statewide voting intentions at ~43%, and in head-to-head polling, Morena's Lorenia Valles leads Astiazarán 49.7% to 35.9%. The winner will serve a constitutionally shortened 3-year term (September 13, 2027 – September 12, 2030), validated by Mexico's Supreme Court. Sonora has been governed by Morena since 2021. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market resolves Yes if Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez is officially declared the winner of the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Sonora (IEE Sonora) or confirmed by the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF) following any legal challenges. Resolves No if any other candidate is declared governor-elect, if Astiazarán does not appear on the ballot, or if the election does not take place before December 31, 2027. Resolution Source Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Sonora (IEE Sonora): https://www.ieesonora.org.mx Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF): https://www.te.gob.mx Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE): https://www.ine.mx Expected resolution date: on or after June 6, 2027, once official results are certified.