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It is odd how an anonymous US official is considered to be more credible than the Qatari Emir, the Pakistani PM, the Saudi FM, and Iran's SNSC all in one
It is odd how an anonymous US official is considered to be more credible than the Qatari Emir, the Pakistani PM, the Saudi FM, and Iran's SNSC all in one
Read the tweet calling "The Great Peace Deal" TM in conjuction with the other tweet saying the deal has been agreed
Read the tweet calling "The Great Peace Deal" TM in conjuction with the other tweet saying the deal has been agreed
I understand that Iran is in the resolution source, and is credible by virtue of other parties (not just Pakistan, but Qatar and other gulf states as well) mirrorring its framing
I understand that Iran is in the resolution source, and is credible by virtue of other parties (not just Pakistan, but Qatar and other gulf states as well) mirrorring its framing
This is well-covered in the media
This is well-covered in the media
It will be an "investment fund" that will be raised by the US and its allies
It will be an "investment fund" that will be raised by the US and its allies
Not just immediately
Not just immediately
Both Pakistan and Iran explicitly say *permanently* ceased
Both Pakistan and Iran explicitly say *permanently* ceased
The 300 billion is credible and has been reported on many times
The 300 billion is credible and has been reported on many times
There is a pastor in Ghana right now (probably) saying the "deal" is actually the beginning of armageddon
There is a pastor in Ghana right now (probably) saying the "deal" is actually the beginning of armageddon
Again, the existence of conflicting statements is not enough. You need to grade the quality of the information
Again, the existence of conflicting statements is not enough. You need to grade the quality of the information
There are no conflicting statements beyond a comment made by an anonymous US official, which holds little weight as evidence compared to the other statements
There are no conflicting statements beyond a comment made by an anonymous US official, which holds little weight as evidence compared to the other statements
Which you hold to no bar
Which you hold to no bar
While simultaneously resting your whole case on an anonymous US official
While simultaneously resting your whole case on an anonymous US official
You are holding these statements to an arbitrarily high bar
You are holding these statements to an arbitrarily high bar
He could nuke them tomorrow, it doesn't matter
He could nuke them tomorrow, it doesn't matter
Read the whole statement. the "Deal" is that which will be signed on Friday
Read the whole statement. the "Deal" is that which will be signed on Friday
Not to mention the various WH statements
Not to mention the various WH statements
There would be a contradiction if Trump said it was a 60-day ceasefire. He has not, instead he has framed this as a Great Peace Deal TM
There would be a contradiction if Trump said it was a 60-day ceasefire. He has not, instead he has framed this as a Great Peace Deal TM
I am talking about official statements made by US govt. organs or named individuals
I am talking about official statements made by US govt. organs or named individuals
And many can be said to have supported the framing
And many can be said to have supported the framing
All of the official US statements have not, at the very least, *contradicted* the statements made by the Paki PM, Iran, Qatar etc. on the deal
All of the official US statements have not, at the very least, *contradicted* the statements made by the Paki PM, Iran, Qatar etc. on the deal
👀
👀
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2066460264308830464
https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2066460264308830464
People reporting on that vs. multiple heads of states wording it as a permanent peace deal
People reporting on that vs. multiple heads of states wording it as a permanent peace deal
I can find you a US official saying any number of things
I can find you a US official saying any number of things
> David Grusch is a former United States Air Force (USAF) officer and intelligence official who has claimed that the U.S. federal government, in collaboration with private aerospace companies, has highly secretive special access programs involved in the recovery and reverse engineering of "non-human" spacecraft and their dead pilots, and that people have been threatened and killed in order to conceal these programs. Grusch further claims to have viewed documents reporting a spacecraft of alien origin I guess we can resolve the aliens exist market, here is some random US official
> David Grusch is a former United States Air Force (USAF) officer and intelligence official who has claimed that the U.S. federal government, in collaboration with private aerospace companies, has highly secretive special access programs involved in the recovery and reverse engineering of "non-human" spacecraft and their dead pilots, and that people have been threatened and killed in order to conceal these programs. Grusch further claims to have viewed documents reporting a spacecraft of alien origin I guess we can resolve the aliens exist market, here is some random US official
Would this be enough to P4 if we had a market on whether the Earth is round or not?
Would this be enough to P4 if we had a market on whether the Earth is round or not?
The mere fact that conflicting information *exists* is not enough to invalidate all the credible, public confirmation made by the named officials that are actually engaged in the negotiations
The mere fact that conflicting information *exists* is not enough to invalidate all the credible, public confirmation made by the named officials that are actually engaged in the negotiations
I can find you conflicting information about whether the earth is round or not, probably also citing anonymous US officials
I can find you conflicting information about whether the earth is round or not, probably also citing anonymous US officials
And probably some articles on Fars citing that MP
And probably some articles on Fars citing that MP
I can find you some random Iranian MP saying this is not actually a peace deal but permanent war against hte Great Satan
I can find you some random Iranian MP saying this is not actually a peace deal but permanent war against hte Great Satan
The mediator, the Iranian SNSC, and WH statement supercede that anonymous official
The mediator, the Iranian SNSC, and WH statement supercede that anonymous official
Nothing is conflicting, just some reporting based on an anonymous official that contradicts all the official information we have published by the relevant bodies / individuals
Nothing is conflicting, just some reporting based on an anonymous official that contradicts all the official information we have published by the relevant bodies / individuals
why would ceasefire not resolve the market?
why would ceasefire not resolve the market?
No new aviation notice issued / Flights are operating as usual Spokesperson of the Aviation Organization in an interview with ISNA: 🔹No new NOTAM has been issued regarding flight cancellations or airspace closures. 🔹The country's flight conditions are normal and flights are operating as scheduled. 🔹The airspace restrictions in the west, which existed previously, are still in place. 🔹Recent news about flight bans from tonight in the western part of the country is denied.
No new aviation notice issued / Flights are operating as usual Spokesperson of the Aviation Organization in an interview with ISNA: 🔹No new NOTAM has been issued regarding flight cancellations or airspace closures. 🔹The country's flight conditions are normal and flights are operating as scheduled. 🔹The airspace restrictions in the west, which existed previously, are still in place. 🔹Recent news about flight bans from tonight in the western part of the country is denied.
> **in an interview with Mehr news agency**
> **in an interview with Mehr news agency**
its in the fucking message
its in the fucking message
No new NOTAM has been issued regarding flight restrictions 🔺Majid Akhavan, spokesperson for the Civil Aviation Organization, in an interview with Mehr news agency regarding some news published on social media about the issuance of a new NOTAM for flight restrictions in the country's airspace, stated: No new NOTAM has been issued in this regard. 🔺The NOTAM related to flight restrictions in the western part of the country is the same previous NOTAM, and no new announcement has been issued in this regard.
No new NOTAM has been issued regarding flight restrictions 🔺Majid Akhavan, spokesperson for the Civil Aviation Organization, in an interview with Mehr news agency regarding some news published on social media about the issuance of a new NOTAM for flight restrictions in the country's airspace, stated: No new NOTAM has been issued in this regard. 🔺The NOTAM related to flight restrictions in the western part of the country is the same previous NOTAM, and no new announcement has been issued in this regard.
why is it false that it is indefinite? if it is not temporary either?
why is it false that it is indefinite? if it is not temporary either?
> The Lebanese ambassador in Washington: This is a historic moment for Lebanon, and we thank President Trump, Vice President Pence, Ambassador Rubio, and the entire team for their efforts. bro doesn't know its the same ceasefire
> The Lebanese ambassador in Washington: This is a historic moment for Lebanon, and we thank President Trump, Vice President Pence, Ambassador Rubio, and the entire team for their efforts. bro doesn't know its the same ceasefire
> Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning on April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, for an initial period of ten days VERSUS > As a result of the U.S. led negotiations, Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire.
> Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning on April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, for an initial period of ten days VERSUS > As a result of the U.S. led negotiations, Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire.
Spot the difference
Spot the difference
why did every single ceasefire announcement so far have an explicit temporary clause, while this one does not
why did every single ceasefire announcement so far have an explicit temporary clause, while this one does not
1918 armistice enabled progress towards versailles. does that make the armistice not a ceasefire?
1918 armistice enabled progress towards versailles. does that make the armistice not a ceasefire?
> > The Lebanese ambassador in Washington: This is a historic moment for Lebanon, and we thank President Trump, Vice President Pence, Ambassador Rubio, and the entire team for their efforts. > bro doesn't know all he got was a reminder
> > The Lebanese ambassador in Washington: This is a historic moment for Lebanon, and we thank President Trump, Vice President Pence, Ambassador Rubio, and the entire team for their efforts. > bro doesn't know all he got was a reminder
it obviously is not a reminder lmao
it obviously is not a reminder lmao
in the previous episode of israel x lebanon....
in the previous episode of israel x lebanon....
just in case everyone forgot
just in case everyone forgot
is this meant to just be a reminder then? if its the same old agreement?
is this meant to just be a reminder then? if its the same old agreement?
newly agreed-upon broader peace deal (yes) will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension (yes - indefinite)
newly agreed-upon broader peace deal (yes) will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension (yes - indefinite)
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