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jjjjjjjjjjjjj参与话题 3消息总数 223

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jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-07-01 19:19:09 Polymarket

enrichment is explicitly addressed by the final deal, so no

enrichment is explicitly addressed by the final deal, so no

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-07-01 19:18:56 Polymarket

i agreed that you could slap me, yea

i agreed that you could slap me, yea

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-28 06:41:20 Polymarket

Lebanon civil war

Lebanon civil war

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-25 16:45:32 Polymarket

No wonder you're so active

No wonder you're so active

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-25 16:45:25 Polymarket

Also, retardation is the name of the game here

Also, retardation is the name of the game here

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-25 16:44:41 Polymarket

you understand you sank your own israel x iran position in order to be a pedantic ass, right?

you understand you sank your own israel x iran position in order to be a pedantic ass, right?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-20 22:46:49 Polymarket

How many ceasefires will Israel and Hezbollah agree to in June? - 7 (current) - 10 - 15

How many ceasefires will Israel and Hezbollah agree to in June? - 7 (current) - 10 - 15

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 19:29:15 Polymarket

you are relentless holy

you are relentless holy

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:59:01 Polymarket

If there ever was a time for P3 though....

If there ever was a time for P3 though....

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:58:43 Polymarket

Unfortunately the MOU is made to be cancer to a platform that requires a firm resolution

Unfortunately the MOU is made to be cancer to a platform that requires a firm resolution

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:57:47 Polymarket

The Hormuz clause previously said something to the effect of: Iran and Oman will make arrangements to ease traffic through the strait of Hormuz etc etc etc. They didn't have the final sentence, which was only added on the last day to my understanding. This "make arrangements to" clause was another example of intentional ambiguity. Iranian circles discussing the leaked MOU in May also went on endlessly arguing whether arragements meant fees or no fees

The Hormuz clause previously said something to the effect of: Iran and Oman will make arrangements to ease traffic through the strait of Hormuz etc etc etc. They didn't have the final sentence, which was only added on the last day to my understanding. This "make arrangements to" clause was another example of intentional ambiguity. Iranian circles discussing the leaked MOU in May also went on endlessly arguing whether arragements meant fees or no fees

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:50:00 Polymarket

It is just this

It is just this

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:49:52 Polymarket

So arguing about the correct interpretation of an intentionally ambiguous clause is masochistic

So arguing about the correct interpretation of an intentionally ambiguous clause is masochistic

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:49:27 Polymarket

It allows both the US and Iran a favourable interpretation

It allows both the US and Iran a favourable interpretation

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 18:48:58 Polymarket

The clause is intentionally ambiguous. It isn't the only one, the Hormuz clause (up until the last moment) was intentionally ambiguous in the same way

The clause is intentionally ambiguous. It isn't the only one, the Hormuz clause (up until the last moment) was intentionally ambiguous in the same way

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 15:10:46 Polymarket

its illegible

its illegible

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 15:10:38 Polymarket

the skinsuit needs to drop the "folksy" talk

the skinsuit needs to drop the "folksy" talk

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 15:10:03 Polymarket

is Vance ESL

is Vance ESL

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 07:10:57 Polymarket

If Analistard has a million fans, then I am one of them. If Analistard has ten fans, then I am one of them. If Analistard has only one fan then that is me. If Analistard has no fans, then that means I am no longer on earth. If the world is against Analistard, then I am against the world.

If Analistard has a million fans, then I am one of them. If Analistard has ten fans, then I am one of them. If Analistard has only one fan then that is me. If Analistard has no fans, then that means I am no longer on earth. If the world is against Analistard, then I am against the world.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:47:22 Polymarket

How the hell are these materially different

How the hell are these materially different

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:47:05 Polymarket

Undertakes to remove forces, 30 days after the final deal Undertakes to terminate sanctions, in an agreed-upon schedule as a part of the final deal

Undertakes to remove forces, 30 days after the final deal Undertakes to terminate sanctions, in an agreed-upon schedule as a part of the final deal

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:46:36 Polymarket

> The United States of America further** undertakes to remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** > The United States of America** undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions** against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, **in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. **

> The United States of America further** undertakes to remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** > The United States of America** undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions** against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, **in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. **

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:45:22 Polymarket

How is this any different to troops?

How is this any different to troops?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:45:07 Polymarket

> 7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, **in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.** The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above-mentioned and expressed their intentions to** immediately address these issues in the negotiations**,** in order to achieve mutual agreement on them**.

> 7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, **in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.** The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above-mentioned and expressed their intentions to** immediately address these issues in the negotiations**,** in order to achieve mutual agreement on them**.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:44:28 Polymarket

Please read it carefully

Please read it carefully

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:43:55 Polymarket

Is this non-contingent?

Is this non-contingent?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:43:45 Polymarket

JD Vance, today: > We will not provide any funds or lift sanctions until we see the required behavior from the Iranians

JD Vance, today: > We will not provide any funds or lift sanctions until we see the required behavior from the Iranians

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:42:43 Polymarket

How about this. Is this direct & non-contingent?

How about this. Is this direct & non-contingent?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:42:09 Polymarket

Is this direct and definitive / non-contingent?

Is this direct and definitive / non-contingent?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:40:57 Polymarket

have i made the promise?

have i made the promise?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:40:46 Polymarket

you can say "im probably not seeing that money"

you can say "im probably not seeing that money"

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:40:37 Polymarket

i can promise to pay you 10 million dollars tomorrow

i can promise to pay you 10 million dollars tomorrow

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:39:55 Polymarket

We cant resolve anything. What if we get hit by a meteor in 10 minutes

We cant resolve anything. What if we get hit by a meteor in 10 minutes

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:39:37 Polymarket

How about that? Its all conditional on the US not nuking Iran tomorrow

How about that? Its all conditional on the US not nuking Iran tomorrow

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:39:27 Polymarket

They could just nuke them tomorrow

They could just nuke them tomorrow

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:39:20 Polymarket

And any argument that consists of just saying "they could just break the deal" is lazy

And any argument that consists of just saying "they could just break the deal" is lazy

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-19 03:39:00 Polymarket

Any argument that treats the not making of a deal as possible is essentially an argument saying "they could just break the deal"

Any argument that treats the not making of a deal as possible is essentially an argument saying "they could just break the deal"

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:56:37 Polymarket

Is it an *if* you do X, or *after* you do X clause?

Is it an *if* you do X, or *after* you do X clause?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:41:26 Polymarket

Troop withdrawal is not "to be negotiated" - it is "to be implemented" following another commitment

Troop withdrawal is not "to be negotiated" - it is "to be implemented" following another commitment

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:41:09 Polymarket

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Its not part of it. It is merely a sequencing of commitments

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Its not part of it. It is merely a sequencing of commitments

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:39:58 Polymarket

you have been making the same arguments that are directly contradicted by the text

you have been making the same arguments that are directly contradicted by the text

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:39:45 Polymarket

we are but im just replying with the text

we are but im just replying with the text

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:39:07 Polymarket

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:38:53 Polymarket

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:38:22 Polymarket

People seriously just copy pasting their arguments from last night

People seriously just copy pasting their arguments from last night

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:38:08 Polymarket

# Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** thanks for playing

# Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** thanks for playing

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:37:43 Polymarket

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. thanks for playing

# Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. thanks for playing

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:37:18 Polymarket

You're rehashing your arguments from yesterday but the paper is released and completely contradicts your framing

You're rehashing your arguments from yesterday but the paper is released and completely contradicts your framing

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