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NonprofitProphet参与话题 9消息总数 298

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NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:32:02 Kalshi

Any word back yet on bug <@175108488303869952>

Any word back yet on bug <@175108488303869952>

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:31:19 Kalshi

Truth is moonlight blew his $1mil on a yacht and now hes switching to ponzi schemes instead of PMs

Truth is moonlight blew his $1mil on a yacht and now hes switching to ponzi schemes instead of PMs

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:29:44 Kalshi

Could have just dmed me

Could have just dmed me

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:27:42 Kalshi

I get blocked trying to look up legitimate work stuff

I get blocked trying to look up legitimate work stuff

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:27:31 Kalshi

They block everything else it seems

They block everything else it seems

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:27:25 Kalshi

Its also not banned here strangely

Its also not banned here strangely

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 04:27:08 Kalshi

Same

Same

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 02:39:20 Kalshi

But they will eventually slap ya

But they will eventually slap ya

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 02:39:13 Kalshi

This does work I did it for like 2 years in minnesota

This does work I did it for like 2 years in minnesota

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 02:37:49 Kalshi

Best way to see who will win is just to ask your friends on Twitter and also look how many yard signs are in your neighborhood, that's what I do

Best way to see who will win is just to ask your friends on Twitter and also look how many yard signs are in your neighborhood, that's what I do

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-11 02:37:05 Kalshi

You can't trust the fake news polls anyway, I would trust a grok poll before something like NYT

You can't trust the fake news polls anyway, I would trust a grok poll before something like NYT

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 05:08:15 Kalshi

For me it's just a way to tie up your money without winning or losing anything 🙁

For me it's just a way to tie up your money without winning or losing anything 🙁

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 05:07:09 Kalshi

What is mentions now if not predicting

What is mentions now if not predicting

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 05:02:06 Kalshi

But only applies if the election is within 30 days

But only applies if the election is within 30 days

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 05:01:54 Kalshi

Apparently this is already a law in Texas: https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/86R/billtext/pdf/SB00751F.pdf

Apparently this is already a law in Texas: https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/86R/billtext/pdf/SB00751F.pdf

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:53:09 Kalshi

Eventually people are going to see AI ads as low effort I think

Eventually people are going to see AI ads as low effort I think

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:52:42 Kalshi

Like, I could film a campaign ad in my backyard for even cheaper than the midjourney query costs. But campaigns won't use that ad because the production quality is so low it'd turn people off

Like, I could film a campaign ad in my backyard for even cheaper than the midjourney query costs. But campaigns won't use that ad because the production quality is so low it'd turn people off

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:51:59 Kalshi

Eventually the return from AI ads isn't gonna be worth it right

Eventually the return from AI ads isn't gonna be worth it right

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:51:04 Kalshi

Yeah the impersonation stuff would be doable, I was just thinking "no AI in ads", much bigger problem there imo

Yeah the impersonation stuff would be doable, I was just thinking "no AI in ads", much bigger problem there imo

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:50:34 Kalshi

And have him do gay stuff in public

And have him do gay stuff in public

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:50:17 Kalshi

Can the Dems hire a paxton lookalike

Can the Dems hire a paxton lookalike

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:49:35 Kalshi

I guess you could ban AI impersonations

I guess you could ban AI impersonations

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:49:17 Kalshi

I hate those ads so much but I feel like it'd be really hard to ban

I hate those ads so much but I feel like it'd be really hard to ban

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:45:03 Kalshi

25% of the campaign might be AI videos instead of 100%

25% of the campaign might be AI videos instead of 100%

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:44:38 Kalshi

Worries me that it'll work. Pratt took it to a ridiculous level, but I think it might be effective on smaller scales

Worries me that it'll work. Pratt took it to a ridiculous level, but I think it might be effective on smaller scales

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 04:16:31 Kalshi

Who says it needs to be fixed? F them, they're morons, they don't get to dictate policy via being extra stupid. Also you're assuming they believe this stuff due to evidence that we can remove via laws, not the case, it's just an anti-democrat argument to be made imo

Who says it needs to be fixed? F them, they're morons, they don't get to dictate policy via being extra stupid. Also you're assuming they believe this stuff due to evidence that we can remove via laws, not the case, it's just an anti-democrat argument to be made imo

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 03:01:46 Kalshi

This is some weak shit from ro Khanna. Dems should cater to the demands of stupid people who think there's fraud? Tf

This is some weak shit from ro Khanna. Dems should cater to the demands of stupid people who think there's fraud? Tf

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 02:58:12 Kalshi

Need to make this a national trend. All MAGA cancel our registration in protest

Need to make this a national trend. All MAGA cancel our registration in protest

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 02:03:50 Kalshi

Thank you Spencer Pratt

Thank you Spencer Pratt

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 02:03:45 Kalshi

https://x.com/NONbiasedly/status/2063859816938799425

https://x.com/NONbiasedly/status/2063859816938799425

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 01:55:20 Kalshi

Yeah they are seen as separate entities by voters. I typed DSA at first and erased it and replaced with democratic socialists

Yeah they are seen as separate entities by voters. I typed DSA at first and erased it and replaced with democratic socialists

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 01:23:17 Kalshi

We are also at an all time high for approval of democratic socialism imo, after Bernie and now mamdani, combined with Dem voters being unhappy with the failures of the Dem party in regards to beating MAGA

We are also at an all time high for approval of democratic socialism imo, after Bernie and now mamdani, combined with Dem voters being unhappy with the failures of the Dem party in regards to beating MAGA

Yeah I don't really understand the mindset. I agree some if it feels like they're just saying the fraud is true because they think it will improve their chances at winning elections

Yeah I don't really understand the mindset. I agree some if it feels like they're just saying the fraud is true because they think it will improve their chances at winning elections

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 01:18:32 Kalshi

I think mail in ballots (especially ones turned in late) also favor young voters, which favor more left candidates, right?

I think mail in ballots (especially ones turned in late) also favor young voters, which favor more left candidates, right?

Nobody is marking down when a candidate is ahead with early results before mail in voting, but then behind for the final call

Nobody is marking down when a candidate is ahead with early results before mail in voting, but then behind for the final call

Yeah I bet you could find something, but a Google search wont really help (which is what the LLM would be doing), you'd have to analyze the actual data

Yeah I bet you could find something, but a Google search wont really help (which is what the LLM would be doing), you'd have to analyze the actual data

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 01:12:34 Kalshi

Or by election day I guess

Or by election day I guess

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-10 01:12:05 Kalshi

"will the result of the LA mayor race be overturned by 2027"

"will the result of the LA mayor race be overturned by 2027"

This is one of those things where it probably would be hard to find a third place candidate surging to second based on early returns vs final results just because its so specific and meaningless, historians wouldn't have noted it. You'd kinda have to go through races individually, I'd think. Also this was only possible because MAGA convinced themselves Pratt would actually win in november

This is one of those things where it probably would be hard to find a third place candidate surging to second based on early returns vs final results just because its so specific and meaningless, historians wouldn't have noted it. You'd kinda have to go through races individually, I'd think. Also this was only possible because MAGA convinced themselves Pratt would actually win in november

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-09 08:43:51 Kalshi

Do it like 2020 markets, will la primary race results be overturned

Do it like 2020 markets, will la primary race results be overturned

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-09 08:07:39 Kalshi

Insane profits damn

Insane profits damn

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-09 04:36:14 Kalshi

He's back

He's back

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 12:17:53 Kalshi

Blonk resolves elections

Blonk resolves elections

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 12:17:45 Kalshi

Just determine the outcomes of elections by kalshi bet

Just determine the outcomes of elections by kalshi bet

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 12:07:25 Kalshi

New law requiring all maga people to put money in election predictions

New law requiring all maga people to put money in election predictions

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 08:03:28 Kalshi

Bianco would have won if not for the voter fraud

Bianco would have won if not for the voter fraud

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 08:00:02 Kalshi

They would buy in

They would buy in

NonprofitProphet 2026-06-08 07:59:51 Kalshi

I wish we could get some kind of market relating to finding voter fraud

I wish we could get some kind of market relating to finding voter fraud